HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 14, 2019 Author Share Posted March 14, 2019 Sun trying it's hardest to come out here right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Crapvection will make this mediocre for most areas, especially the western end of SPC’s risk area. Seems to be the norm the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Sun trying to come out over SW parts of the outlook area also I'm surprised there isn't a mention over central IL to NW IND for a secondary area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Visible shows breaks over several portions of ENH area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 First tornado warning of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 A lot of those storms have that ominous wavy look to them already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 HE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY... CENTRAL MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 1000 AM CDT. * AT 926 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LOVELACEVILLE, OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONE OAK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 where is the watch SPC? now 2 TOR warned storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 32 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: Sun trying to come out over SW parts of the outlook area also I'm surprised there isn't a mention over central IL to NW IND for a secondary area That area of subsidence you mentioned behind the initial line is where I would anticipate redevelopment later today with the cold front in addition to the emphasis on the enhanced area to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 These storms are really booking as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 NWS in PAH taking cover damage being reported Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Third storm just went tornado warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 NO SH!T ... SPC behind real time ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0931 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KY...FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN...SOUTHERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 141431Z - 141630Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SUPERCELL INTENSITY VIA STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WILL PROBABLY INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS HEATING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BUOYANCY CONTRIBUTE TO A GREATER TORNADO RISK SPREADING NORTHEAST IN A DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITH A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST (230 DEG AT 52KT). SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN KY RANGING FROM NEAR 70 DEGREES F WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER NORTHEAST IN SOUTHWEST IN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS TO THE EAST ALONG THE OH RIVER, TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. THE PAH VAD SHOWS 500 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH. 13Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AS THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES DURING THE LATE MORNING, A RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF A TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE. UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. CURRENTLY THINKING THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL ACCOMPANY THE QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN KY DOWNSTREAM INTO SOUTHWEST IN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ON THE NORTH-END OF THE NEAR 60 DEGREES F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 03/14/2019 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 36768915 37978866 38888751 38838670 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: These storms are really booking as well. Yeah storm motions on anything that forms today are gonna be nuts. Surprised to see this early activity going so strong. Tornado Watch coming soon for that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Meanwhile, full sun here further north in NWO. Crapvection inbound but seems to be weakening ever so slightly. Temp and dew have jumped 2 degrees each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 WF or differential heating boundary in the affected area...PAH is 69/62 and EVV is 57/56. Helicity high as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 NWS said they narrowly missed tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Currently, effective helicity is 350-400 in the tornado warned storm region. Forecast to hit 600-700. With 500 -1000 cape, thats more than enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 where is the watch...often counties won't activate their spotter network until there is a watch.. also notice the Sun coming out over western KY into southern IND and back west over IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 A Large Tornado just came really close to the @NWSPaducah office. It passed just SE of the Office. They had a Visual Confirmation of it. Has caused "Major Damage". They had to take shelter and transferred ops to @NWSLouisville but have taken back ops. #KYwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 about an hour too late RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 24 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1045 AM UNTIL 500 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...BROKEN BAND OF SUPERCELLS IS SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY, AND THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND POTENTIALLY REACH WESTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. THE FAST MOVING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG, ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Wow missed nws to southeast putting it very close to Paducah itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 80/50 Tornado watch for Indiana/Ky/Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
[email protected] Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Sun is trying to pop out here just West of Mccordsville, IN. Cloud breaks becoming visible on satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 New Tor warning for Paducah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Not every day that you see several tornadic supercells at 10am with a 80/50 TOR watch already issued. Going to be interesting to watch this evolve. Not sure what ramifications these current storms will have for the potential in Indiana later quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Just now, jojo762 said: Not every day that you see several tornadic supercells at 10am with a 80/50 TOR watch already issued. Going to be interesting to watch this evolve. Not sure what ramifications these current storms will have for the potential in Indiana later quite yet. With 600-800 effective SRH, any cloud breaks and destabilization will greatly increase tor threat. Watch out for the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Not every day that you see several tornadic supercells at 10am with a 80/50 TOR watch already issued. Going to be interesting to watch this evolve. Not sure what ramifications these current storms will have for the potential in Indiana later quite yet. WF tornadoes can be quite active...I remember Utica IL. Then if you get clearing and heating before the cold front round two can occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 I find it interesting that multiple runs of the HRRR and RAP want to destabilize an area of Ohio (mainly western and central parts of the state) well ahead of the broken line of storms we are currently seeing around Paducah. If one of those models verifies, EHI values may be fairly high in that area. If SPC does decide to add in a hatched area for significant tornadoes, I'm going to be placing my bets on western and central Ohio (and perhaps eastern Indiana too) given what these models are showing, especially if storms can tap into that energy (though the modeled EHI values seem to drop as the broken line approaches). Basically what these models are showing is a broader area of instability into Ohio compared to the relatively narrow instability axis we are currently seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 ALLATIN IL-UNION KY- 1028 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN GALLATIN AND CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES... AT 1027 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MORGANFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN GALLATIN AND CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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