Spring/Summer 2019 Flooding Thread

[janetjanet998]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Seems increasingly likely that the tropical entity will get ingested by the incoming trough.  How quickly and how far north everything moves thereafter remains to be seen.

Most models , expect CMC , keep NE IL/ NW IND  rather dry with a high pressure shield ...

I'm not sure what a stronger system would mean rainfall wise for the track of the ULL and such......if it does develop ....

at this point it  looks sloppy

[Calderon]

Levee has been overtopped on the Illinois at Nutwood. Also, the River des Peres in south St. Louis is about to go over Broadway and many, many businesses in Southtown and vicinity are pumping their basements. 

[Hoosier]

Extended looks wet... meandering front. 

[janetjanet998]

On 6/11/2019 at 12:11 PM, Hoosier said:

Extended looks wet... meandering front. 

big time trouble ahead for MO..Lake Truman hit its second highest level ever a few days ago as they held back as much water as possible on the Osage  for the MO/MS river....50,000 cfs is coming out of the dam now and they expect it to continue for "weeks"

GFS/CMC extremely wet for MO Into OH valley ..MS river will still be at 43-43.5 feet thru tomorrow at STL... still around the pre-1993 record stage

 

 

[janetjanet998]

[NegativeEPO]

Does it ever ****ing stop? Such an utterly useless, trash pattern. Can’t go a few days without it raining 10 inches again. 

[Hoosier]

Story from the local paper.  A lot more like it

Water-sogged fields dampen Northwest Indiana corn crop after dismal planting season

Jasper County farmer Mark Kingma has been tilling the soil for more than four decades and has never seen a spring as wet as this one.

Water-logged fields have greatly delayed planting for many farmers in Northwest Indiana, from south Lake County to more rural counties like Newton, Starke and Pulaski. Some are still putting crops in the ground and some may be forced to take insurance payments and let their fields lie fallow this season.

"By the Kankakee River, a lot of people are not anywhere close to being done," Kingma said. "They'll have to take preventative planting for the first time in their lives. You're taking a loss with preventative planting. No one makes a profit off it, but you're taking less of the loss. It keeps you farming for another year."

Bloomberg estimates farming insurance claims nationwide could nearly double the previous record set in 2013.

The United States Department of Agriculture estimates Indiana farmers only had 67% of their corn crop planted last week, as compared to an average of 98% during the same week between 2014 and 2018. Only 31% of the crop was in the ground by the week ending June 2, raising fears about the yield come harvest time this fall.

Kingma owns a 2,500-acre farm near DeMotte and Wheatfield. He normally gets all the corn in the ground by May 10 and the soybeans in about 10 days later. His planting was delayed by weeks this year.

"We did follow our plan and get everything in the ground, but it was really late and we had wet spots in the fields," he said. "We lost some of our starter nitrogen. On higher ground, you can lose the fertilizer."

Only 35% of the corn planted in Indiana emerged as of last week, as compared to 90% during the same time between 2014 and 2018, according to the USDA.

"It will hurt the yield," Kingma said. "It drops off the later you go. If it's hot and dry in July and August, it will dry it up because you don't have a very deep root system when the crop gets in the ground that late. There's a long way to go."

The USDA predicts an average of 166 bushels of corn produced per acre nationwide this year, which is about 10 fewer per acre than last year. As many as 10 million acres could go unplanted nationwide, which has driven corn prices up by about 60 cents a bushel.

"It helps our bottom line, but it could make the corn situation difficult for the cattle that need to get fed," Kingma said.

 

 

Only about 53% of the corn planted in Indiana was in good or excellent condition last week, according to the USDA, which Kingma said did not bode well for the yield. It was about 77% good to excellent at the same time a year ago.

"I have never seen it this bad since I got involved in planting in 1977," he said.

 

https://www.nwitimes.com/business/local/water-sogged-fields-dampen-northwest-indiana-corn-crop-after-dismal/article_a5ae5e2e-7a5d-518e-9614-4577e98c58e8.html

 

[King James]

More rain and cool temps. Brutal

[Chambana]

It appears many local farmers around here just took the insurance pay out. Even after the 1 week mild/dry spell many fields remain untouched. Going to be crazy in August to not see very much corn up. 

[janetjanet998]

On 5/23/2019 at 7:49 PM, janetjanet998 said:

 

 

here is the graph from 1993...as you can see the insane summer MCS season did them in...the river is much higher now then this point in 1993 after falling off the spring snow melt season peak

 

amazing how long MS river has been above flood stage in STL....and at baton Rouge in LA

see the pattern at STL? peaks and valleys from wet weeks and then drier weeks...but each crest is higher

 

 

 

[janetjanet998]

GFS has 3 slow moving lows loaded with moisture this week]

one this weekend now over NW IA crawls into OH monday

another reforms tuesday over S IL

and the third wed-thursday

 

 

 

[janetjanet998]

3.82 at IND today if my math is correct

[Indystorm]

1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

3.82 at IND today if my math is correct

Don't doubt it at all.  I drove home this early afternoon from downtown Indy to my home ne of town in torrential rain.  It eased up a bit and then started heavily once again this evening.  Now watching the storms by you in Peoria expected to get here by morning.  Yard to the east of me is an ocean.

[janetjanet998]

  
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0424  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1042 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IL...CENTRAL IND...SOUTHWEST  
OH...EXTREME NORTHERN KY...  

 

ONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY  
  
VALID 160245Z - 160815Z  
  
SUMMARY...TRAINING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POTENTIAL OF  
UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT CONTINUES LIKELY FLASH FLOODING THREAT  
OVERNIGHT.  
  
DISCUSSION...GOES-16 10.3UM SHOWS COMPLEX OF COLD CLOUDS ACROSS  
THE TRI-STATE AREA THOUGH HAVE RECENTLY SEEN A WARMING TREND WITH  
THE LOSS OF BEST INSTABILITY.  DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT AS  
REPRESENTED BY 00Z ILN SOUNDING DEPICTS WEAK LAPSE RATES EVEN  
THOUGH THERE IS AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE (1.6" TPW) YIELDING AROUND 500  
J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION.   YET, ONGOING  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORABLY ALIGNED WEST-EAST AT THE SOUTHWEST  
EXTENDING TROUGH OR EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS  
SOUTHERN IND TOWARD CINCINNATI METRO AREA OF THE MCV LIFTING  
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OH PER RADAR MOSAIC (INFLECTION AT DARKE  
COUNTY). CONFLUENT STRONG STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO  
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, SUPPORTING A TRAINING PROFILE.  HOURLY  
RAIN-RATES OF 1.25-1.5" REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE WEAKENING CELLS  
WITH 2-3" TOTALS EXPECTED AS THEY TRAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.   
THIS PUTS THE ROUGH TERRAIN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND THE  
CINCINNATI METRO AT PARTICULAR RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.   
  
OVERNIGHT, THE SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN, PERHAPS  
EVEN ENHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MCS OUT OF THE NORTHERN  
STREAM DIRECTING FLOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.   
WARM ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE AND WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY  
GENERALLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE FLOW, ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.  THIS IS DUE TO THE USHERING IN OF A  
SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY UP TO 1.75" AND  
1000-1500 J/KG THROUGH 06Z IN SW IND/S IL.  CURRENTLY, THE FLOW IS  
SUPPORTING SCATTERED WARM TCU AS FAR WEST AS HUF.  THIS IS  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE WITH NEW DEEPER CONVECTION AROUND  
04-05Z WITH POTENTIAL OF 1.5"/HR TOTALS ACROSS AREAS AFFECTED BY  
EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL.  FFG VALUES ARE ALREADY COMPROMISED WITH  
NUMEROUS LOCATIONS NEAR THE WABASH RIVER VALLEY AT OR BELOW  
.75"/HR AND 3HR VALUES OF 1.0-1.5".  WHILE THE APPROACHING WAVE  
MAY LIFT THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH AND ANGLE MORE WNW TO ESE  
ACROSS IND, REDUCING SOME OF THE BEST ORIENTATION TO THE TRAINING  
STEERING FLOW; YET AT AN ANGLE STILL FAVORABLE FOR SUFFICIENT  
TRAINING OVER THESE SATURATED GROUNDS. AS SUCH FLASH FLOODING IS  
CONSIDERED LIKELY, PERHAPS EVEN LIFE-THREATENING IF TRAINING IS  
IDEAL THROUGH 09Z.  THIS COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL  
TOTALS IN THE RANGE OF 5" LOCALLY ACROSS S IND INTO CINCINNATI  
METRO  PER SOME HI-RES CAMS THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH OF  
UNCERTAINTY IN EACH GUIDANCE MEMBER'S PRECISE EVOLUTION FOR EVEN  
MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTREME TOTALS.   
  
GALLINA  
   

[Hoosier]

26 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

3.82 at IND today if my math is correct

Wettest calendar day on record in June, just beating out 3.80" on June 7, 1963.

[bowtie`]

33 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

3.82 at IND today if my math is correct

 

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Wettest calendar day on record in June, just beating out 3.80" on June 7, 1963.

Only 1.13 in my tippy bucket. The totals really start ramping up just south of me, literally.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

 

Only 1.13 in my tippy bucket. The totals really start ramping up just south of me, literally.

Tis convective season.

[janetjanet998]

here we go again

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0428  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
936 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST  
OHIO  
  
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  
  
VALID 161336Z - 161736Z  
  
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF  
THE MCV MOVING OUT OF EASTERN OHIO.  CONVECTION MAY TRAIN IN THE  
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT  
SEVERAL HOURS.  IN AREAS OF TRAINING...1"+  HOURLY PRECIP TOTALS  
MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE  
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS IN THE PAST 24  HOURS.  
  
DISCUSSION...CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST  
SIDE OF THE MCV OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...ACROSS AREAS FROM SOUTHERN  
INDIANA INTO FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.  SOME OF  
THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH  
FLASH FLOODING MORE LIKELY IF ADDITIONAL TRAINING OCCURS ACROSS  
THOSE AREAS.  THE HI RES GUIDANCE FROM 0000 UTC AND THE 0600 UTC   
NAM CONEST DO NOT HAVE THIS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND ARE NOT  
HELPFUL WITH RESPECT TO HOW LONG IT MAY PERSIST.  LATEST GOES 16  
IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING COOLING CLOUD TOPS...SUGGESTING THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL LAST AT LEAST A FEW HOURS.  WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW  
FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE OHIO  
VALLEY...THERE MAY CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS  
WHERE THE CONVECTION DOES PERSIST.   
  958 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...  
  NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  JENNINGS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 200 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 956 AM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING   
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. AS MUCH AS 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN   
  HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-2   
  INCHES POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS. FLASH FLOODING IS   
  EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.  

 

[nokywx]

2-3 inches fell overnight, and that train in southern IN means business for this afternoon...creeks and streams are going to be going crazy. 

[Jackstraw]

13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Wettest calendar day on record in June, just beating out 3.80" on June 7, 1963.

If some of the models are to be believed over the next 10 days KIND could be bumping up to '98 (10.26") and 1875 (12.22") for the wettest June on record.  Pretty impressive with none of this coming from a tropical system.

[janetjanet998]

LOL again'

WUS01 KWNH 161922  
FFGMPD  
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-162330-  
  
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0431...CORRECTED  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
321 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2019  
  
CORRECTED FOR DISCUSSION TEXT  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHERN INDIANA, NORTHERN  
KENTUCKY, SOUTHWEST OHIO  
  
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  
  
VALID 161916Z - 162330Z  
  
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE  
EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THESE STORMS  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK IN A WEST-TO-EAST FASHION.  
THIS MAY ENABLE STORMS TO REPEATEDLY AFFECT SIMILAR AREAS,  
INCLUDING SOME AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN  
THE PAST 24 HOURS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
  
DISCUSSION...KLVX RADAR SHOWED A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER IN S IN AS OF 19Z. THE  
CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO CONGEAL INTO A WEST-EAST BAND AND  
COULD ORIENT INTO A TRAINING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS  
FROM S IN INTO N KY. AT THE MOMENT, THIS EMERGENT CONVECTIVE  
CLUSTER WAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE AREAS WITH LOWEST FFG, AND  
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24  
HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT AN IMMEDIATE ALIGNMENT  
OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THAT WOULD  
FAVOR FLASH FLOODING, INCREASED TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD  
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS FROM 19-22Z.  
THERE IS A GENERALLY DEEP ALIGNMENT OF THE FLOW FROM 925-500MB ON  
THE RADAR VWPS FROM KVWX AND KIND AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
AROUND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES. THIS WOULD FAVOR TRAINING CONVECTION  
THAT COULD PRODUCE 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR.  
  
GOES-16 VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED CUMULUS  
DEVELOPMENT AND A COUPLE TOWERING CU OVER S IL IN A ZONE OF  
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE. THIS WAS SITUATED GENERALLY A BIT NORTH OF  
THE LATITUDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION, AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS  
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD TRACK ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE  
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS COULD POSE A  
GREATER FLASH FLOOD RISK, BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING  
THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ONCE IT DOES DEVELOP. NEVERTHELESS,  
GIVEN THE BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW, DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS COULD  
DEVELOP INTO TRAINING WEST-EAST ORIENTED BANDS AND PRODUCE SWATHS  
OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM S IL INTO S IN. WITH TIME, THIS COULD BUILD  
INTO SW OH AND MORE OF N KY. A POTENTIALLY LIMITING FACTOR IN SW  
OH WOULD BE A MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL SBCINH (APPROX  
-50 J/KG) DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER WAS  
SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP AND THE RAP DOES INDICATE SOME  
DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.  

[Chinook]

21 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

3.82 at IND today if my math is correct

CoCoRAHS reports range from 2.29" to 4.36" in Marion County, Indiana (outlier: 1.17")

[IWXwx]

It's getting real ugly in Southern Indiana. A swarm of tornadoes and heavy rain yesterday and areas receiving over 6" today.

 

[janetjanet998]

19 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

It's getting real ugly in Southern Indiana. A swarm of tornadoes and heavy rain yesterday and areas receiving over 6" today.

a lot of water going into the OH river this evening.....looking at the radar it reminds me of a January train from IL to WV ..of course the ground is not frozen and vegetation is out..but still

Wonder what the record crests/levels  are for summer months along the river ..there isn't a top 70 crest at Paducah outside of winter or spring ....

also the MS river at Red River Landing LA has been in flood since December.... 6 months..can they go the whole  year?

we better not get a tropical system up this way..but we are pushing our luck as time goes on with that SE ridge 

 

 

 

[Hoosier]

So about that Wednesday system.  

[CoalCityWxMan]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So about that Wednesday system.  

Could be interesting, if that defo-band of rain ends up forming on the NW flank of the system some models have been hinting at could see there being some fairly significant rain

[janetjanet998]

the train may be targeting INDY again

Wish IND would reset total precip back to ZERO

 

[CoalCityWxMan]

18z NAM portrays the narrow deformation band potential. 

[Indystorm]

WTHR TV reporting that Brown County State Park is closed today and Tuesday due to flooding concerns and safety.   There is a lack of usable water supply due to flooding and storms per park website.

[Hoosier]

Pattern just has that look of having the potential to produce monster amounts over the next week or two... perhaps double digits somewhere (from this point forward) if convective complexes hit the same area over and over again.