janetjanet998 Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 local downpours keeping the river steady..00z would kill this area 3-4 inches from here to Chicago new crest forecast adds this * MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.0 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 This next week could be really bad. Wide spread 4-6'' rainfalls with 8''+ in spots. Rivers are still very high in most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 I give up. We don't get significant tornado outbreaks anymore. Mother Nature is just trying to drown us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted May 16, 2019 Author Share Posted May 16, 2019 As someone who is going camping this weekend at Devils Lake, this sucks a lot. Hopefully I don't get flooded out like that area has a tendency to do in a heavy rain situation. Also this is just going to do wonders for our rivers. The farmers are never going to get in their fields. It never ends! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 PAI got lucky last time the river crested at 28 ft 5th highest ..we missed the first 2 of the 3 heavy rain waves that was forecast 10 days ago..the last wave bumped the river back up to 27 feet after falling to 26.8 or so The river is still 24 feet here..and its already raining upstream 12z GFS ..enough said 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 MS river at Saint Louis expected crest of 41.7 tie for 6th highest......that is with only precipitation expected thru 12z ...super wet pattern continues for at least another week 1) 49.58 ft on 08/01/1993 (2) 43.23 ft on 04/28/1973 (3) 42.52 ft on 01/01/2016 (4) 42.00 ft on 04/01/1785 (5) 41.89 ft on 05/22/1995 (6) 41.70 ft on 05/06/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 So I just plotted 1993 against 2019 so far and the results are insanely similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 This is at the southern end of St Clair river, where my grandparents live. I have never in my lifetime seen water this high there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Just in the next week. Things might start getting ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Just in the next week. Things might start getting ugly I feel like things are already getting ugly. Just heard on the radio only 24% of IL corn crop is in (typically 98% is in) and only 9% of soy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 so far most of the flooding has been from "fast moving" clusters during Tornado season ....not huge slower moving wind producing MCSs as the jet stream moves north ..in 1993 these huge slow moving systems happened almost every night during the summer..they formed in IA/NE/KS/MO.and moved ESE I think PIA had the wettest july on record but since they were decaying as they moved into IL ..not as much upstream on the IL river also the fall of 1992 was wet If I remember ..(remember all the IA flooding last September) IL river here still at 23 feet .Moderate flood stage 22....only down 4.5 feet or so since the crest of 28 new crest 24.5 for monday....with about 1/2 to 3/4 inch of precip (per WPC map) basin wide overnight (huge amounts possible this weekend) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 2 hours ago, King James said: I feel like things are already getting ugly. Just heard on the radio only 24% of IL corn crop is in (typically 98% is in) and only 9% of soy You’re right, atleast half the fields around here haven’t been touched since harvest last year, and things are even worse elsewhere in the Midwest. I honestly don’t know what farmers are going to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 1 hour ago, CoalCityWxMan said: You’re right, atleast half the fields around here haven’t been touched since harvest last year, and things are even worse elsewhere in the Midwest. I honestly don’t know what farmers are going to do Tweeted to a local met last night about how this years planting stacks up against other late planting years, and with records going back to 1979 he confirmed this is the latest since said records began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Suggests there will be serious pricing disruptions for foodstuffs globally. The US feeds many more than the domestic consumers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crispus Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 I know they used to say 'knee high in July' regarding where corn was supposed to be, but in recent years the corn seems to be much higher than that in July. I assume this is due to new hybrids, genetic engineering, etc. Does that mean less time is needed nowadays for a crop? And if that's the case, does that mean planting late is not as big a deal as it used to be? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Crispus said: I know they used to say 'knee high in July' regarding where corn was supposed to be, but in recent years the corn seems to be much higher than that in July. I assume this is due to new hybrids, genetic engineering, etc. Does that mean less time is needed nowadays for a crop? And if that's the case, does that mean planting late is not as big a deal as it used to be? That is the kind of nuts and bolts facts that we really need, but cannot find anywhere in the 'information age'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 3 hours ago, Crispus said: I know they used to say 'knee high in July' regarding where corn was supposed to be, but in recent years the corn seems to be much higher than that in July. I assume this is due to new hybrids, genetic engineering, etc. Does that mean less time is needed nowadays for a crop? And if that's the case, does that mean planting late is not as big a deal as it used to be? I know a few farmers around here in Northeast Indiana and they all agree that June 8th is the drop dead date to plant corn. Otherwise it won't be ready in time without drying it which substantially adds to the cost of production and makes it a losing proposition. As far as soybeans, the price is already depressed due to the sanctions with China. With a much smaller market to sell to, the farmers I spoke with are planning on minimizing their soybean plantings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Lets just hope we don't get a northwestern Gulf of Mexico tropical system this year, we may never recede at that rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 6 hours ago, Crispus said: I know they used to say 'knee high in July' regarding where corn was supposed to be, but in recent years the corn seems to be much higher than that in July. I assume this is due to new hybrids, genetic engineering, etc. Does that mean less time is needed nowadays for a crop? And if that's the case, does that mean planting late is not as big a deal as it used to be? Yes and no. Clear as mud, right? Actually all the genetics are more to take full advantage of a full growing season. If things gets too late, the crop is getting the wrong conditions at the wrong time. If the root structure is not fully developed before the August/September hot and dry happen the crop will have reduced yields. To make matters worse, if it really starts getting late they (the farmers) will have to get in the fields regardless of soft conditions and that will exasperate compactions and reduce yields. Then things will be later. And later harvest time means a better chance of more soft conditions. Can you see how the snowball just keeps getting worse yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, bowtie` said: Yes and no. Clear as mud, right? Actually all the genetics are more to take full advantage of a full growing season. If things gets too late, the crop is getting the wrong conditions at the wrong time. If the root structure is not fully developed before the August/September hot and dry happen the crop will have reduced yields. To make matters worse, if it really starts getting late they (the farmers) will have to get in the fields regardless of soft conditions and that will exasperate compactions and reduce yields. Then things will be later. And later harvest time means a better chance of more soft conditions. Can you see how the snowball just keeps getting worse yet? You can plant some faster maturing hybrids at the expense of yields. Getting pretty close to an absolute worst case scenario for a lot of farmers. Can’t get the corn in, forecast looks awful, soy prices suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 The sheer aerial scope of flooding in this country right now is beyond insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 I talked to a couple of farmers recently (both no crops in) they said old timers have said in the past that the latest they ever planted the corn crop was early-mid June(maybe pre 1979 data referenced) one told me one year he replanted beans once on July 4th MS river at crest at STL. now 42 feet.....tied for 4th highest ever it hit 41.33 feet back on May 6th,,,7th highest....but I assume if this round goes higher that will be wiped from the books because it is the same event here is the graph from 1993...as you can see the insane summer MCS season did them in...the river is much higher now then this point in 1993 after falling off the spring snow melt season peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 On 5/21/2019 at 8:17 PM, Chambana said: So I just plotted 1993 against 2019 so far and the results are insanely similar. Here is a weather channel article from a couple of weeks ago...it has actually been MORE wet the past 6 months then 1992/93,,except in Kansas at press time......they are assuming we won't get onto the crazy record MCS pattern Another Great Midwest Flood of 1993 This Summer? Probably Not, But There Are Some Concerning Signs https://weather.com/safety/floods/news/2019-05-07-great-midwest-flood-1993-compare-contrast-2018-19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 just for fun: the entire run of the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 46 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: just for fun: the entire run of the 00z GFS Wow, that's definitely concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 24, 2019 Share Posted May 24, 2019 so far the lower MO river hasn't gone insane yet (still very high) partly because the inflow to the Kansas River isn't like it was in 1993....The upper Mississippi River, lower MO, and IL river are feeding the STL levels on the MS saw this interesting tidbit on the WPC excessive rainfall outlook...of course this is upstream of STL watershed THE APRIL 23-MAY 22 PERIOD WAS THE WETTEST ON RECORD AT KANSAS CITY, MCI, IN 131 YEARS OF RECORDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 looking at the entire run of the 12z GFS Yes the pattern does change midweek... no big dip in the west....but the hint of a small dip and a semi-SW flow never really goes away and the pattern isn't exactly dry, especially over the western portion of the Sub forum Yes sometimes the high nudges in from the north and northeast but within day or two the return flow sets up and high PW values are back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 25, 2019 Share Posted May 25, 2019 with the next 24 hr big batch of precipitation now in the forecast RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ST. LOUIS THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 42.8 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. 1) 49.58 ft on 08/01/1993 (2) 43.23 ft on 04/28/1973 (3) 42.52 ft on 01/01/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now