janetjanet998 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 5 hours ago, CoalCityWxMan said: 18z NAM portrays the narrow deformation band potential. 0z just a taaaaaaad wound up....overdone and prob to far north then..just like a winter system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 I just figured out that Akron OH got about 3" recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 18z NAM portrays the narrow deformation band potential. Man I hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 Not surprisingly, the NAM has gone weaker/south since those really jacked up runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Brown county state park still closed for Wed. and Thursday. Apparently they get their water from Ogle Lake and the water treatment plant was damaged due to the flooding at that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 a last minute north jog for todays system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 DVN just issued a flood watch for SE portions..I suspect ILX will expand more north to inlcude me and LOT will isssue south of I-80 just like a winter system.. .but instead of inches of snow inches of rain edit: ILX did expand watch a row of counties north but not Peoria yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0455 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1110 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...MID-MS RIVER VALLEY CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 191509Z - 192109Z SUMMARY...CONVECTION MOVING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES, SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS MAINTAINING A COMPACT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO, SOUTHEAST IA AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO AS OF 15Z WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE REGION. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN A MOSTLY CIN FREE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70, INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED AND IS CURRENTLY IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH ALMOST 2000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. ALL OF THIS IS WITHIN A ZONE OF HIGHER PWS, PER THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT, WHICH INDICATES VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL IL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CURRENT ACTIVITY IS ALREADY SHOWING HOURLY RATES GREATER THAN 1". THE 06Z HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE VERY HIGH PROBS OF RATES EXCEEDING 1" AND MODERATE PROBABILITIES (40-60 PERCENT) OF HOURLY RATES EXCEEDING 2" BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 4 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z. MOST OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL FALL ON SATURATED/WET SOILS, WHERE THE MOST RECENT AHPS 7-DAY PRECIP ANOMALIES ARE 200-400 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH THE EASTERN OUTLOOK AREA APPROACHING 600 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS SUCH, THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOWERED (AROUND 2" FOR 1-HR) AND THIS SHOULD BE MET OR EXCEEDED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NATIONAL WATER MODEL SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL FLOW AND THE RECENT SOIL SATURATION GUIDANCE IS AROUND 85 PERCENT, WHICH SUGGESTS MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE RUNOFF. WITH THIS IN MIND, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said: DVN just issued a flood watch for SE portions..I suspect ILX will expand more north to inlcude me and LOT will isssue south of I-80 just like a winter system.. .but instead of inches of snow inches of rain edit: ILX did expand watch a row of counties north but not Peoria yet Does feel like kind of a winter-type system. The hrrr & other hi-res models have been consistently hinting at widespread 1-2”+ amounts with isolated significant amounts across much of IL south of I-80, could be the type of event where some areas get slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 LOT update GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THESE SUBTLE AND SMALL-SCALE FEATURES, AND IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO VORTICITY MAY BE PLAYING A ROLE IN THE MODEL VARIABILITY. BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS, IT DOES APPEAR AS IF A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION MAY PAN OUT HERE THIS EVENING, AND MORNING GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO LATCH ON TO THIS POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT, HAVE EXPANDED AND UPPED POPS NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A FAIRLY MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PWATS CONTINUING TO RIDE UPWARDS TODAY, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY BE INCREASING FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE/MCV COMBO INTERCEPTS THIS MOIST AIRMASS. WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A TARGETED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-80 AS THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD BRING THE BETTER DYNAMICS INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL, BUT SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHIN PRECIP- LOADED DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 So the NAM wasn’t really out to lunch. I don’t discount its further north depictions in the mid-range, even in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 36 minutes ago, tuanis said: So the NAM wasn’t really out to lunch. I don’t discount its further north depictions in the mid-range, even in winter. Partially. It was overdeepening the low quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Just a novice but it's looking like a lot of rain is coming for north of 80 as well based on the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 going to be some big totals around the pivot point as 35-45 DBZ's stay parked for hours Doppler is most likely underestimating precipitation amounts with this warm core system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 We'd be seeing some pretty good rippage if this was a winter system lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Brown county state park to be closed through Sunday. Big disappointment for campers and those who had reservations at the lodge and cabins. Silt and mud that flowed into the water supply source at Ogle Lake in the park has compromised the park's water treatment facility. Additional t storms in the current forecast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 The Mississippi finally fell below flood stage in the QC (at Rock Island) after being over flood stage for over 3 months! That's insane to say the least. Beat the previous record for consecutive days over flood stage by over 50 days. Areas down south even more impressive. Nice graphic from DVN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 ^ Well, if you are going to break a record, may as well shatter it. Somebody there is sick and tired of water about right now I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 This would be a problem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 8 hours ago, CoalCityWxMan said: This would be a problem.. to far north with features.....the current MCS is more south and the upcoming overnight back build tonight likely is too central and Southern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 In any case, somebody is gonna get plowed. 30 day rain amounts are quite impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 18z NAM didn't even initialize the MCS on the Sim radar and shows no precip in that area ....and as a result the front is to far north for the position of later storms WTF? Is it blind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 50 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: 18z NAM didn't even initialize the MCS on the Sim radar and shows no precip in that area ....and as a result the front is to far north for the position of later storms WTF? Is it blind? NAM is indeed untrustworthy at this run. I do wonder how long it will take for the instability gradient to move ne from its present position and we get back into the soupy air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 2 hours ago, janetjanet998 said: 18z NAM didn't even initialize the MCS on the Sim radar and shows no precip in that area ....and as a result the front is to far north for the position of later storms WTF? Is it blind? I noticed that when it dumped. I'm monitoring weather for a festival here and even though we are not in line for severe, we are riding a thin line between precip and no precip. When I saw how it initialized, all I could do was 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 will the heavy rain ever make it to the I-80/ Chicago metro area in IL with this set up? Models totally missing the new MO convection...this of course will slow the NE movement of the front again..blah blah blah etc etc etc ESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0478 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 851 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL MISSOURRI CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 221250Z - 221650Z SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE TRAINING POTENTIAL THIS MORNING IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ENHANCING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN CONVECTION DEVELOPING QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS NO INDICATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE 0000 UTC HI RES GUIDANCE OR THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. THE ONLY MODELS THAT DOES SHOW SOME INDICATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS THE 0600 UTC NAM CONEST...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO WEAK AND SHOWS THE ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A WELL DEFINED AXIS OF SURFACE FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE OUTFLOW AND CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF OBSERVED HEAVY RAINS. THIS FRONTOGENESIS AXIS IN THE RAP32 PERSISTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LESS DEFINED. GIVEN POOR MODEL DEPICTION, CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE EVOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING INTENSIFICATION...BELIEVE ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AS MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERRUNS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS FLASH FLOODING THREAT MAY BE ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IN AREAS OF TRAINING...HOURLY RATES OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Here is a trouble spot....on the IL side of the MS river across form Cape Girardeau This isn't flooding directly from the river rather then backwater rising for weeks because the local runoff is greater then the outflow to the clogged MS river even though the river has been slowly falling this water is still slowly rising..a huge lake has formed locals are saying this is the worse it has ever been...it was also over the road in 1993 but the road has been raised since then.... it is common to have water here but not near this much This road (Rt 3) closed last night..and another line of storms moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 its keeps getting worse here on the protected side of the levee.. ...more info: its a combo of seep water under the levee and local run off its still rising as it has been for months. up 3 inches just the other day alone they won't open the levee gates to start draining until the river falls below 30 feet..it still above 40.. Serious flooding continues to affect southern and western Illinois, and on Monday the Division of Aeronautics surveyed the McClure-East Cape Girardeau-Gale area in Alexander County. https://twitter.com/IDOTDistrict9/status/1143632101604057093 Worst yet to come in Illinois flood fight https://www.semissourian.com/story/2617492.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 NE IL may be under the gun ....the current storms on the western flank are slower moving/merging over the extreme SW burbs and most models redevelop storms tonight EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1153 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2019 DAY 1 VALID 16Z SUN JUN 30 2019 - 12Z MON JUL 01 2019 ..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST... 16Z UPDATE: CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. MIXED MODEL SIGNAL WITH THIS EVOLUTION...BUT TEND TO THINK THE MCS WILL PERSIST SOUTHWARD, EVENTUALLY SHOWING AT LEAST SOME RESTRENGTHENING OVER PORTIONS OF IL AND WESTERN IN. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO STAY PROGRESSIVE, CELL MERGING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE RESTRENGTHENING PHASE, RESULTING IN SOME FLASH FLOOD THREAT. REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS MCS OVERNIGHT ALONG A NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AGAIN A MIXED MODEL SIGNAL WITH THIS, BUT THINK ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL EVOLVE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND IF THIS DOES OCCUR, THE SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING. THE EXPERIMENTAL FV3 NSSL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ONGOING MCS, AND IT IS ONE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WITH THIS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. GIVEN ITS GOOD HANDLING OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY, AND ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE OF LATE, THE FV3 NSSL DEPICTION IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. THUS SOME THREAT THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD EVOLVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI INTO IL. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT, BUT DEFINITELY WORTH MONITORING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 ESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0509 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 319 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TO EAST-CENTRAL IL...WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IN CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 301915Z - 010115Z SUMMARY...AN EXPANDING AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES/HR. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-16 IR SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING AN EXPANSION OF COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS ACROSS NORTHERN IL ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LONG-LIVED MCS THAT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN WI OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL WHERE THIS IS CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL ZONE. THE AIRMASS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF LOCALLY OVER 4000 J/KG. THERE IS A WARM NOSE UP AROUND 700 MB AS SEEN IN A SPECIAL 18Z RAOB SOUNDING FROM KILX, BUT VERY STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION/BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE EXCEEDED WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR A STEADY DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN IL. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF IL, AND ALSO POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND WITHIN A RATHER NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG AND UNCAPPED INSTABILITY AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN MO AND MUCH OF IA. THE CONVECTION WILL BE IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS OF 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES, AND A CONSIDERABLE CONTRIBUTION OF THIS COMING FROM A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RAINFALL TOTALS OF AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES/HR, WITH STORM TOTALS THROUGH 00Z OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WHERE SOME LOCALIZED REPEATING OF CELLS OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE HEAVY SHORT-TERM RAINFALL RATES, AND EXPECTED TOTALS, SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 S IL update With seep-water still rising, small Southern Illinois towns face 'critical' flood fight MCCLURE — The Mississippi River reached its highest point weeks ago in deep Southern Illinois, but the waters threatening homes in the communities of McClure and East Cape Girardeau continue to rise. The river remains in “major” flood stage, and the levees that hold it at bay have been saturated for months. That has allowed massive amounts of water to seep through the embankments and flow into McClure and East Cape. “It went up an inch here yesterday,” said Jamie Myers, volunteer coordinator for relief efforts in McClure, his hometown. “The situation is critical.” https://thesouthern.com/news/local/environment/with-seep-water-still-rising-small-southern-illinois-towns-face/article_e761ef42-a33a-5405-ae72-9dfa6869499c.html#utm_campaign=blox&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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