Spring/Summer 2019 Flooding Thread

[Hoosier]

18 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

with the next 24 hr big  batch of precipitation now in the forecast

 

RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND FORECAST   
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ST. LOUIS

THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 42.8 FEET BY   FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.  

 

1) 49.58 ft on 08/01/1993
(2) 43.23 ft on 04/28/1973
(3) 42.52 ft on 01/01/2016

You know #1 was highly anomalous when there is a 6 foot difference between that and 2nd place.

[luckyweather]

You know #1 was highly anomalous when there is a 6 foot difference between that and 2nd place.

I was a teenager living in Central MO then, my grandmother bought the vhs of this video from the Jefferson City TV station.

It’s a good watch if you have ten minutes.

I have lots of memories, of nearly every bridge across the MO and MS rivers being closed, of the local grocery store owners death as he drove his tractor unknowingly into a flood covered 80’ deep washout from a levee burst, of my neighboring town of Rhineland being wiped off the map and rebuilt a few miles away, etc

Let’s hope the rain stops. A 1993 repeat would be all bad.

[Chicago WX]

What a disaster of a pattern, with no end in sight. Not sure what's worse...this or a death ridge.

A few met spring (thru yesterday) precipitation totals...departure to date...all-time ranks in top 20.

Chicago (ORD): 13.52" +4.67" #16

Cincinnati (CVG): 15.10" +3.28" 

Detroit (DTW): 11.29" +3.41" #18

Evansville (EVV): 15.92" +2.99"

Fort Wayne (FWA): 12.29" +2.78" 

Indianapolis (IND): 13.83" +2.35"

Kansas City (MCI): 18.53" +8.23" #4

Marquette (MQT): 13.57" +5.13" #6

Milwaukee (MKE): 11.15" +2.61"

Minneapolis (MSP): 10.76" +3.50"

Moline (MLI): 15.03" +5.13" #10

Paducah (PAH): 20.21" +7.46" #12

Peoria (PIA): 14.84" +4.86" #16

Rockford (RFD): 12.60" +3.78" #18

St Louis (STL): 18.07" +7.32" #8

South Bend (SBN): 11.60" +2.91" 

Springfield IL (SPI): 15.96" +6.43" #14

Springfield MO (SGF): 20.39" +8.25" #9

Toledo (TOL): 11.65" +3.13" #19

 

[janetjanet998]

51 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

What a disaster of a pattern, with no end in sight. Not sure what's worse...this or a death ridge.

 

 

I was really concerned for our area going into the weekend and early next week with multiple heavy rain waves for days....

but not so bad so far....with 2 LOT flash flood watch "busts"

but still maybe 3 rounds to go,  before pattern change  Weds....(but turns wet again after a couple dry days)

more of a wet summer pattern later...but large slower moving complexes will dump more rain over any area they park over ..and the ground is soaked 

[Hoosier]

I'd say this pattern is worse than a death ridge (I know Chicagowx is shocked to hear that from me lol).  A drought requires no clean up of flooded homes, businesses, etc.  Droughts do hurt farmers, but this pattern is not good for them either since so much planting hasn't been able to be done.

[Chicago WX]

20 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

I was really concerned for our area going into the weekend and early next week with multiple heavy rain waves for days....

but not so bad so far....with 2 LOT flash flood watch "busts"

but still maybe 3 rounds to go,  before pattern change  Weds....(but turns wet again after a couple dry days)

more of a wet summer pattern later...but large slower moving complexes will dump more rain over any area they park over ..and the ground is soaked 

Yeah, we actually have been lucky here the past 3 days, only minor amounts. So that's good...but have to try to dodge a few more bullets through mid-week. Then hope the models are wrong in the extended. And LOT is too trigger happy sometimes. Depends on the forecaster though...some like their FFWs. But, models have been trash in this pattern...no help there.

[Chicago WX]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd say this pattern is worse than a death ridge (I know Chicagowx is shocked to hear that from me lol).  A drought requires no clean up of flooded homes, businesses, etc.  Droughts do hurt farmers, but this pattern is not good for them either since so much planting hasn't been able to be done.

Lol, wow. But yes, I agree. I'd take 100 and dry right now, for a couple of weeks, in a minute.

[Geoboy645]

Well here we go with the flooding here. We got about 2.5 inches or so on Friday. Not that big of a deal right. Well everything is so wet here that it's flooding as if we got 4 or 5 inches. And we are supposed to get a bunch the next two days.

[Calderon]

MS River at St. Louis is now forecasted to crest at 44ft on the 3rd but then hold at that level for 3-5 days. This would be the #2 crest and potential is there for the crest to be higher by up to 2ft depending on rainfall.

[Chambana]

A local farmer was interviewed last night about the planting progress and how slow progress has been made. He had been farming since 1984 claiming this is the latest on record that he can remember by far. 

 

By May 28th 90-95% of the corn crop should be planted, and roughly 50% of the bean crop. As of right now 30-35% of the corn crop has been planted, and beans remain around 10% planted. 

Apparently after June 1st the yield goes down 17%.

[janetjanet998]

17 hours ago, Calderon said:

MS River at St. Louis is now forecasted to crest at 44ft on the 3rd but then hold at that level for 3-5 days. This would be the #2 crest and potential is there for the crest to be higher by up to 2ft depending on rainfall.

45.2 now

 

1) 49.58 ft on 08/01/1993
(2) 43.23 ft on 04/28/1973
(3) 42.52 ft on 01/01/2016

[Stebo]

16 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

I wouldn't mind a record dry summer..............like really.

Don't see it happening this year.

[janetjanet998]

At least the pattern is changing and we won't have a direct deep feed of moisture 

the problem is that there is so much water laying around  and soil moistures so high 

that it has become its's own source..

DVN long term

 THE BROAD SCALE   
SEEMS LESS LIKELY FOR REPEAT HEAVY RAINS, BUT IS ALSO NOT A   
SEASONALLY DRY PATTERN AS WELL.  AT LEAST IT'S NOT AN WEST TO EAST   
FRONT, WHICH IS OUR CURRENT PATTERN.  

[Hoosier]

Trends would suggest heaviest rains tonight generally south of I-80.  We'll see.

[janetjanet998]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Trends would suggest heaviest rains tonight generally south of I-80.  We'll see.

look at all the flash flood warnings from eastern KS to Peoria 

and the SW Chicago metro under urban flooding warnings ..so from near TOP  to MDW flooding 

and check out the infrared...it looks like a weak tropical storm getting torn apart by SW shear ...with the center over Northern MO LOL

[Calderon]

45.2 now
 
1) 49.58 ft on 08/01/1993
(2) 43.23 ft on 04/28/1973
(3) 42.52 ft on 01/01/2016

Now upped to 46ft.


.

[janetjanet998]

not in the sub forum but many places on the AR river in AR should hit the highest level in 50 years since the flood control was built...many levees may be over topped

also after a period  of "drier" weather next week (more like average precip next week) GFS seems to  want to take a tropcial wave move it into the Texas coast around the ridge by days 9-10

with  PW's >2 inches getting sucked north

[Chicago WX]

Kankakee County a disaster, literally. Declaration announced for the farming community. Story: https://www.daily-journal.com/news/local/official-announces-emergency-declaration/article_8aa9cea2-83a5-11e9-b00d-3fdbe38058ac.html

[janetjanet998]

 new IL river crest here 27 feet...which would be number 10 on the all time list if we didn't hit number 5 a month ago at 28..I know same "event" but the river only feel to 23.5 in between (18 FS, 22 MOD FS)

 

GFS still wants to being the upper level low or tropical thingy up this way and throw moisture up and over a  stalled a stalled  front on its NW flank

Christ

 

 

[cyclone77]

Mississippi River in Rock Island (western QC) is going to crest about a foot under the new all-time record just set earlier this month.  

[janetjanet998]

Normal level is 12-13 in spring   11-12 in summer....flood stage in 18 feet. moderate flood stage is 22 feet...record 29.4  ..we hit 28 feet in early May 

you can see how the river was in between 15-20 feet all late winter and spring ..then we got drenched in the right spots upstream at the end of April..

I cannot recall when the river was above 22 feet for 30 days straight before....1979 maybe when we had a big crest and several re-rises

any slow moving complex or tropical systems upstream and we are in big  trouble

 

[janetjanet998]

207 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019  
   
..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DOWNTOWN BURLINGTON, IOWA  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTH CENTRAL DES MOINES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SATURDAY.  
  
* AT 153 PM CDT, LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FAILURE OF THE   
  TEMPORARY FLOOD PROTECTION AT 4TH AND WASHINGTON STREETS. FLASH   
  FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.  
  
  THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DOWNTOWN BURLINGTON THIS IS A  
  PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!  

[bowtie`]

^ Does that mean the Post Office is under water? Fourth and Washington is two blocks further away from the river from the Post Office.

[cyclone77]

Here in Erie all residents in the city are being asked to conserve water usage.  Sewage/storm drainage systems are overloaded, and there's been many instances of stuff backing up into peoples basements.  Been here 13 years now and can't remember this ever being an issue.  Needless to say I'm glad todays convection avoided this area lol.

[bowtie`]

^ You are welcome, but the farmers here are not too keen on accepting your gift.

[nwohweather]

In NW Ohio NO corn has been planted yet. That is absolutely insane, and after yesterday’s 3-5” I bet it’ll be quite awhile longer. I feel they’re in a different world two hours from Columbus who has had a pretty regular May to June so far

[janetjanet998]

please no north trends

 

LOT

FOR THE CLOSED UPPER LOW, AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER, MODEL AND  
ENSEMBLE PROGS ARE CONCERNING FOR THE PLUME OF 200+% PWAT VALUES  
(2"+) ADVECTED NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN HOW  
NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT IT IS FOR MODELS TO ACCURATELY PREDICT  
TRAJECTORY OF THESE SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS, IT'S FAR TOO EARLY TO  
NAIL DOWN TRENDS. THAT SAID, 51-MEMBER EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE (AND  
LAST 2 OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS) HAS INDICATED POSSIBILITY OVER THE  
PAST FEW RUNS THAT ANOMALOUS RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAY SERVE AS A   
BLOCK TO NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ULL FRIDAY- SATURDAY. IF THIS  
OCCURS, LIKELY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY  
RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT TOTALS OF 2"+ WOULD FOCUS OVER THE  
SOUTHERN CWA OR POINTS SOUTH, WITH MUCH LESS RAIN IF ANY NORTH.  
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. 

 

 

[mob1]

Something else to keep an eye on is the tropical disturbance currently in the Bay of Campeche, some models show a pretty well defined storm that parallels the coast of Mexico and then North into parts of the midwest in 5 days or so. This is obviously subjet to change and still a ways out but any kind of advecting tropical moisture could potentially exacerbate an already bad situation. 

 

 

[janetjanet998]

out of the sub forum, but our wet weather is affecting it,   but concerning at red river landing

and lots of rain incoming

 

Morganza Floodway To Be Operated June 6

For only the third time, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will operate the Morganza Control Structure and Floodway beginning June 6. Operation of Morganza comes as a new crest on the already swollen Mississippi River makes its way toward Louisiana.

---------

The National Weather Service forecasts the gage at Red River Landing will reach 62 feet around June 4 and stay there for two weeks or more, reflecting the anticipated opening of Morganza. In all, Red River Landing has been above flood stage since December 28, 2018—151 days and counting. In all, the “flood fight” on the Lower Mississippi River is nearing an all-time record. Already, rainfall over the past year east of the Rocky Mountains is the most since the National Weather Service began keeping records 124 years ago.

“The current flood fight is historic and unprecedented,” the Corps said in the statement.

As of May 30. the New Orleans District has been in a Phase I flood fight (with the river above 12 feet at the Carrollton Gage) for 217 days. The record length for a Phase 1 flood fight is 225 days, set during the 1973 high water season.

https://www.waterwaysjournal.net/2019/05/31/update-morganza-floodway-to-be-operated-june-6/

[Hoosier]

Seems increasingly likely that the tropical entity will get ingested by the incoming trough.  How quickly and how far north everything moves thereafter remains to be seen.