shaggy Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 Nice gustfront was forming as it passed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 8, 2019 Share Posted June 8, 2019 Brad PanovichVerified account @wxbrad 9m9 minutes ago We had a possible tornado touchdown near Ellenboro at 5:10 pm. I have some confirmed damage reports and a very short lived couplet on radar. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain Dew Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Should be a fun day tomorrow in the low country. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... This Evening: Latest EMC RAP analysis from SPC shows PWATS of at least 2.25 inches pooling across Southeast GA bands of convective rains persist, resulting in periods of heavy rains with pockets of torrential downpours ongoing along the lower Savannah River region of the forecast area. We will continue the Flash Flood Watch in place on this update package. Overnight, parameters are coming together for additional heavy rainfall further up the coast as low pressure organizes along the stalled front and propagates to the northeast. Strong moisture convergence ahead of the low in the vicinity of the front coupled with high PWATS and lingering nocturnal instability will support a corridor of moderate to heavy rainfall extending from the Georgia coast north into the Charleston Metro Area, including Savannah and Beaufort. High resolution guidance are similar in showing the heaviest rains falling in the Savannah to Charleston corridor with general rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches with some members showing amounts in excess of 6 inches. Although flash flood guidance values are still somewhat high and D1-D2 drought conditions linger, the high PWATS within a weak steering flow environment suggest the resulting convection will be efficient in rain production which could overtake the 1-hr and 3-hr flash flood guidance values. I have a feeling since we have escaped rain for the most part the last 3 day in mt pleasant that we could get hammered tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldsborosnow Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Large slight risk area for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Soundings are a bit worrisome for NC tomorrow......latest 3k NAM suggest some discrete supercells and then a few MCS type bowing segments over central and eastern NC....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 As of 500 AM Thursday... A severe weather event is expected to unfold across the Carolinas this afternoon, with at least a couple of significant wind (65 kts or greater) and hail (2" or greater) reports possible. ------------------------------------------- 645 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify over the western Carolinas through midday. These storms will subsequently spread generally east northeastward across central NC this afternoon and evening, with some merging into fast-moving clusters with corridors of damaging wind gusts, and others remaining discrete with large hail. Isolated wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, and instances of hail larger than two inches in diameter, will be possible. Additionally, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The timing for severe weather appears greatest across the Piedmont between 2 PM and 7 PM, and across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills between 4 PM and 9 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldsborosnow Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 This looks ominous for Eastern NC. The NAM3k seems to like the bowing segment idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Enhanced area has expanded. NWS SPCVerified account @NWSSPC 3m3 minutes ago 7:51am CDT #SPC Day1 Outlook Enhanced Risk: southern va to eastern ga http://go.usa.gov/YWq5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldsborosnow Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 45% Damaging wind probabilities with this update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 First watch coming soon. Mesoscale Discussion 1159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Areas affected...southeast Alabama...central and southern Georgia and South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 201602Z - 201800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 17-18Z over a large part of the Southeast U.S. and increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon, posing a risk for damaging wind and hail. A WW will probably be needed for a portion of this region by 17Z. DISCUSSION...A moist warm sector resides over a large part of the southeast U.S. with dewpoints around 70F and temperatures climbing through the mid 80s F as of 16Z. Latest objective analysis indicate MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and further destabilization will occur as the surface layer continues to warm. Water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough moving through the TN Valley, with an MCV also indicated over southeast TN/northern GA. A low-level confluence zone is forecast to evolve well inland from the coast from southern AL through southern GA. The combination of forcing for ascent associated with the MCV and progressive shortwave trough, surface layer destabilization and subtle boundaries, should promote warm sector initiation by early afternoon. While deep-layer wind profiles are unidirectional west southwesterly with small 0-1 km hodographs, a belt of 50 kt mid-level winds within the base of the trough is resulting in 30-35 kt effective bulk shear. This environment should support both multicell and some supercell structures with discrete modes eventually evolving into lines and clusters capable of damaging wind and hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion 1160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Areas affected...North Carolina...Virginia...Maryland and Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 201623Z - 201830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early afternoon posing a risk for damaging wind and hail. A severe thunderstorm watch will probably be needed by 18-19Z. DISCUSSION...The warm sector continues to destabilize over a large part of the Mid Atlantic region from North Carolina through VA and MD. Surface dewpoints around 70F and temperatures warming through the mid to upper 80s have boosted MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg. WV imagery shows the primary shortwave trough over the TN Valley, but with an MCV moving through the southern Appalachians. These features are progressive, and the accompanying forcing for ascent along with boundary layer destabilization should result in an increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity this afternoon. Wind profiles are unidirectional west southwesterly with 30-40 kt deep-layer flow, but modest 0-6 km shear generally less than 35 kt. This environment will support mostly multicell modes, but mid-level updraft rotation will also be possible in some storms. Activity may evolve into clusters and line segments with time posing a risk for damaging wind and hail through the afternoon into early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 3K NAM looks scary for NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Watch is out until 10:00 pm. Covers all of SC, most of GA, and some of NC. Weird border for NC. Wonder if we'll get another watch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Also until 10:00PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Well, that answers my question. GA up to VA under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Further South, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 That is a huge area. Also saw the SPC was discussing a possible watch from VA to NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Low level cape is pushing 3500-4000 over eastern NC and SE SC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Got a feeling there will be a lot of reports like this throughout the rest of the day/night. 1 SSE Belews Creek [Forsyth Co, NC] FIRE DEPT/RESCUE reports TSTM WND DMG at 2:04 PM EDT -- SEVERAL TREES REPORTED DOWN AND IN ROADWAYS ACROSS THE WINSTON- SALEM AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 And a few more of these... Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Caswell County in north central North Carolina... South central Pittsylvania County in south central Virginia... Southwestern Halifax County in south central Virginia... * Until 300 PM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Pretty good winds with the main line. I would guess mid 50s and got some long sustained gusts. On the south side of Greensboro. I was stupid enough to leave my windows cracked even though I knew the rain was coming. Parked perpendicular to the winds too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Pretty good winds with the main line. I would guess mid 50s and got some long sustained gusts. On the south side of Greensboro. I was stupid enough to leave my windows cracked even though I knew the rain was coming. Parked perpendicular to the winds too. Yep, that line had a punch. A few exciting minutes with the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 309 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2019 NCC001-063-077-081-135-145-201930- /O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-190620T1930Z/ ALAMANCE NC-PERSON NC-ORANGE NC-GRANVILLE NC-GUILFORD NC-DURHAM NC- 309 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR ALAMANCE...EASTERN PERSON...ORANGE...GRANVILLE...SOUTHEASTERN GUILFORD AND DURHAM COUNTIES... AT 309 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR VIRGILINA TO 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROUGEMONT TO GRAHAM, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORT NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF PERSON COUNTY. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DURHAM, CHAPEL HILL, BURLINGTON, GRAHAM, OXFORD, HILLSBOROUGH, CREEDMOOR, CARRBORO, MEBANE AND BUTNER. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES, POWER LINES, AND DAMAGE MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS, AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 2 NNE Durham [Durham Co, NC] EMERGENCY MNGR reports TSTM WND DMG at 3:28 PM EDT -- REPORTS OF MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN DOWNTOWN DURHAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Looking out the window here at work and the clouds look really ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Looking really ominous NW of Columbia SC. Caught this on SC highway cam. I-26 MM 97.5 looking west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Raleigh NC 349 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 NCC037-202000- /O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-190620T2000Z/ Chatham NC- 349 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR CHATHAM COUNTY... At 349 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Butner to 6 miles north of Pittsboro to 8 miles south of Siler City, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Emergency management reports numerous powerlines down across the City of Chapel Hill. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. Locations impacted include... Pittsboro, Siler City, Goldston, Crosswinds Boating Center, Crosswinds Campground, Harpers Crossroads, Jordan Lake State Rec Area, Bynum, Seaforth Boat Dock and Moncure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 32K and climbing without power (Duke Power) in NC/SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Just saw I am under a severe storm warning until 4:15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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