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General Severe Weather


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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

will probably see some ground truth on this couplet from 2-3am last night.....PGV gusted to 43 with the squall, sounded way worse lol, I expected half the trees around my house to be on the ground when the sun came up.

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It woke me up when the line came thru. I had expected the same but thankfully found nothing down.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Surprised this isn't getting more attention:

image.png.27a24379c027258961fc337a0bcb504c.png

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1127 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2020

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NORTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected to spread from the northeast Gulf
   Coast this morning to the Carolinas by early evening. Damaging winds
   could be common with this activity, and a few tornadoes are also
   possible.

   ...Northeast Gulf Coast to the Carolinas...

   Strong low-latitude trough is beginning to shift east across the Big
   Bend of TX/northeast Mexico as a pronounced mid-level speed max
   approaches the base of this feature. By mid day, 500mb speed max in
   excess of 100kt will translate into the lower MS Valley, then
   strengthen to near 140kt over the Carolinas by 27/12z. In response,
   intense 12hr mid-level height falls (200m) will spread across the
   northern Gulf States into the western Carolinas.

   LLJ is forecast to strengthen across the northern Gulf Basin into
   southern AL by sunrise Thursday. This will encourage boundary-layer
   moistening with upper 60s surface dew points expected to advance
   inland across southern AL/GA, with near 70F dew points across the FL
   Panhandle. This moistening will be more than adequate for
   substantial SBCAPE ahead of the surging cold front. Latest thinking
   is scattered-numerous thunderstorms will be ongoing along the front
   at the start of the period. As large-scale forcing approaches this
   region, a sharpening band of frontal convection should evolve. Given
   the strengthening wind fields there is increasing confidence that a
   potentially damaging squall line will race northeast across the ENH
   Risk area. In addition, a few pre-squall line supercells may also
   develop as minimal forcing will be needed to initiate convection.
   Tornado threat will be most concentrated with these more discrete
   structures, though embedded squall-line circulations are also
   expected given the shear.

   A well organized squall line should progress across GA/northern FL
   into the Carolinas during the evening hours. This linear MCS should
   advance off the NC Coast shortly after midnight.

   ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/06/2020
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  • 1 month later...

SPC goes with a tornado watch that gets to KATL and all of the southern 'burbs. While the LLJ is a little veered, it is bringing in a moist fetch. Also surface winds are really backed on that retreating boundary. Regarding that LLJ, I've noticed southern Georgia can produce while a little veered off. 

I think most of the Atlanta metro is OK, some morning rain and the atmo should not recover / destabilize enough to get nasty later. South Georgia could have a day though.

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26 minutes ago, Calderon said:

Radar confirmed tornado near the MS Gulf Coast in George County near Lucedale. This storm will move into Mobile in about a half hour.

958am - CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE reports in George County, MS. This is a CONFIRMED TORNADO moving into the Wilmer, AL area in western Mobile County.  
Not Good...

From @NWSMobile

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Instability, shear and helicity seem to be just south of Albany, GA at the present time and hugging the bulk of the line racing through the south.  If forecasts are to be true, may see quite a bit of warm sector action today in southern GA. IMO with the high likelihood of quite a few wind reports with that line, in addition to decent tornado chances ahead of it and embedded within, the SPC should go ENH ASAP

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