FallsLake Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 40 minutes ago, jburns said: Best storm of the season just blew through. I was out to eat with my wife and we ended up enjoying a romantic dinner by iPhone light. That's how I ended my work down in Raleigh yesterday (...not romantic but dark). It really wasn't a big storm but it knocked out the power around 4pm near the US1/US401 split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernest T Bass Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 Best/worst storm of the summer hit Statesville too. About 10K without power in Iredell. Lots of trees and power lines down. We did good here, no damage just under a half inch of well needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 Same here in Hickory. Amazing lightning show all around. Very vivid CTG lightning strikes between 4:30 - 5:00 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 One more round of possible severe before the cooldown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 26 minutes ago, Solak said: One more round of possible severe before the cooldown. 12z 3k nam kills the squall line and shows very few storms. Not sure what's going on with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 1 hour ago, shaggy said: 12z 3k nam kills the squall line and shows very few storms. Not sure what's going on with this run. I haven't been enthused with this setup nearly as much as I was yesterday's. I thought the forecast yesterday way underdid the effect of heating and the MCAPE values were high. Same today but the forcing associated with the front arrives late and very rarely this time of year do nighttime storms reach severe limits, unless you get an MLS situation which this is not. Though dynamics appear most favorable in SE VA and NE NC and this lines up with high CAPE values in prime heating hours and highest shear values in this area as well, I expect a line of storms to progress from NW-SE through midnight. Isolated wind damage for sure but I doubt we see much outside the highlighted areas. That might be what the 3K nam is seeing in its latest run, the line falls apart once peak heating hours wane (though did you see the 6z? That had a significant line. I took that with a grain of salt given other modelling). Should be some good rains. We got an inch yesterday from the storms that developed after that awesome gravity wave cloud (I think that's what it was) moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I haven't been enthused with this setup nearly as much as I was yesterday's. I thought the forecast yesterday way underdid the effect of heating and the MCAPE values were high. Same today but the forcing associated with the front arrives late and very rarely this time of year do nighttime storms reach severe limits, unless you get an MLS situation which this is not. Though dynamics appear most favorable in SE VA and NE NC and this lines up with high CAPE values in prime heating hours and highest shear values in this area as well, I expect a line of storms to progress from NW-SE through midnight. Isolated wind damage for sure but I doubt we see much outside the highlighted areas. That might be what the 3K nam is seeing in its latest run, the line falls apart once peak heating hours wane (though did you see the 6z? That had a significant line. I took that with a grain of salt given other modelling). Should be some good rains. We got an inch yesterday from the storms that developed after that awesome gravity wave cloud (I think that's what it was) moved through. Hrrr is still showing some storms east of 95 especially so we will see. Here in greenvile it's just absurd outside as far as humidity goes. Definitely getting plenty of sun and heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 40 minutes ago, shaggy said: Hrrr is still showing some storms east of 95 especially so we will see. Here in greenvile it's just absurd outside as far as humidity goes. Definitely getting plenty of sun and heating. Yeah temp is 88 DP is 77 heat index is 100 lol......I love NC but man I hate June-Aug outside of thunderstorms.....which I havent had a good one IMBY in ages......I suspect today will follow that pattern again but maybe I will get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 19 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah temp is 88 DP is 77 heat index is 100 lol......I love NC but man I hate June-Aug outside of thunderstorms.....which I havent had a good one IMBY in ages......I suspect today will follow that pattern again but maybe I will get lucky. I hear ya! I had been in the same boat for awhile until yesterday saw one storm blow up right over my house and sit, dropping an inch of much, much needed rain, 30-35 mph gusts, and close ctg lightning. Had a good storm a week ago but not as much rain. Can't wait for the, gasp, 70's tomorrow! Hope to see a blossoming radar shortly and maybe a cool, light, drizzly rain type of day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 I picked up 2.3" in last night's round of storms. It was rockin and rollin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 ...Parts of southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard... Scattered thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday, ahead of the cold front, in the presence of at least modestly sheared and strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, from the lee of the southern Appalachians through northern Florida. Coupled with the development of the frontal wave/cyclone, models indicate an influx of seasonably moist air (including surface dew points near 70F) across the Carolina coastal plain into the piedmont by early afternoon. Although lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may not be particularly steep, it appears that this still may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. In the presence of south to southwesterly wind fields including 30-40+ kt around 850 mb, and 50-60+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer, it appears that the environment could become conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. Mid/upper support for large-scale ascent across the Carolinas could be glancing, but lift associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection may be conducive to the initiation of discrete thunderstorms by midday, including a few supercell structures, with potential for at least some upscale growth across the North Carolina coastal plain through Tuesday afternoon. This may be accompanied by the risk for a couple of tornadoes, in additional to potentially damaging wind gusts. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 32 minutes ago, downeastnc said: ...Parts of southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard... Scattered thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday, ahead of the cold front, in the presence of at least modestly sheared and strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, from the lee of the southern Appalachians through northern Florida. Coupled with the development of the frontal wave/cyclone, models indicate an influx of seasonably moist air (including surface dew points near 70F) across the Carolina coastal plain into the piedmont by early afternoon. Although lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may not be particularly steep, it appears that this still may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. In the presence of south to southwesterly wind fields including 30-40+ kt around 850 mb, and 50-60+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer, it appears that the environment could become conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. Mid/upper support for large-scale ascent across the Carolinas could be glancing, but lift associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection may be conducive to the initiation of discrete thunderstorms by midday, including a few supercell structures, with potential for at least some upscale growth across the North Carolina coastal plain through Tuesday afternoon. This may be accompanied by the risk for a couple of tornadoes, in additional to potentially damaging wind gusts. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal Saw this exact scenario on the 3k Nam for tomorrow, discrete cells then an organized line. First potential severe threat in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 If the weak surface low forms might see a area bumped to EHN with 10% on tornadoes in central/eastern NC From SPC However, instability will remain rather weak from southeast VA northward where heating will not be as strong and midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Where stronger heating is forecast across parts of central/southern NC southward into northern FL, MLCAPE values may reach as high as 1500-2000 J/kg in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. Some forecast guidance suggests a weak secondary surface low may develop in the VA/NC Piedmont vicinity during the late morning. If this occurs, backed low level winds will develop ahead of the cold front across parts of mainly central/eastern NC into southeast VA. As a result, this could locally increase tornado potential across this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Slight risk has been dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 ...North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon/evening... The potential exists for a few thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly a tornado, across the region this afternoon into early evening, although the overall magnitude/extent of today's severe risk should remain limited. Associated with the base of a prominent east-central CONUS longwave trough, a vorticity maxima and the entrance region of a strong cyclonically curved polar jet will quickly transition east-northeastward from the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the Appalachians by tonight. Modest cyclogenesis will occur in the lee of the southern/central Appalachians as a cold front continues to spread east of the mountains, and generally exits the coast by early/mid-evening. A warm/moist sector with 70F dew points will precede the cold front, with a north-northeastward expansion across coastal portions of South Carolina/North Carolina today. Even with this moist influx off the Atlantic, the relatively small-inland warm sector remains mired by broken multi-layer cloud cover at midday. Its potential persistence will temper lapse rates and limited upward parcel accelerations even with near 70F surface dewpoints, which casts uncertainty on how many mature/sustained surface-based storms will develop and intensify within the warm sector. That said, strengthening/gradually backing mid-level winds and resultant 45-55 kt effective shear will be conditionally supportive of fast-moving line segments capable of damaging winds, with some supercell/non-zero tornado potential particularly across eastern North Carolina in proximity to the warm front, should adequate destabilization and storm development/maturation occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 * Tornado Warning for... Wayne County in central North Carolina... North central Sampson County in central North Carolina... Southeastern Johnston County in central North Carolina... * Until 645 PM EDT * At 540 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 12 miles southeast of Benson, or 13 miles south of Smithfield, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Talk about a quick hit... .CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA... START LOCATION...3 MILES NORTHEAST OF VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA END LOCATION...3 MILES NORTHEAST OF VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA DATE...OCTOBER 22ND 2019 ESTIMATED TIME...743 PM EDT MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...65 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...40 YARDS PATH LENGTH...0.05 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...35.350833/-77.125814 ENDING LAT/LON...35.350968/-77.125140 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 Further south, stronger heating is expected across southeast VA into eastern NC/SC. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in warm advection ahead of the cold front but, dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and pockets of heating should result in MLCAPE values as high as 1000-1500 J/kg by early afternoon. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop near the front and track east/northeast, moving offshore by 00z. Forecast soundings indicate steeper mid and low level lapse rates with shear profiles supportive of marginal supercells. Forcing will be weaker than further north, so anticipate mainly clusters and semi-discrete cells initially. Some upscale growth into bowing segments could occur through outflow interactions/storm mergers. Overall severe threat appears greater across this area as deeper, more discrete convection develops, posing a threat for locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Brad Panovich Meteorologist · Please Stay weather Aware Thursday. This strong front & the ingredients are coming together for severe storms in the late evening hours #Halloween. The STP or significant tornado parameter is enhanced right around Charlotte as it appears a small meso low forms on the front. Timing is everything so stay up on the weather the next 48 hrs. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx 242242 100 Comments267 Shares 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Here we go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 16 hours ago, Solak said: Brad Panovich Meteorologist · Please Stay weather Aware Thursday. This strong front & the ingredients are coming together for severe storms in the late evening hours #Halloween. The STP or significant tornado parameter is enhanced right around Charlotte as it appears a small meso low forms on the front. Timing is everything so stay up on the weather the next 48 hrs. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx 242242 100 Comments267 Shares Unfortunately, somebody is going to get the strong storms during the prime trick or treating time. Being selfish for the RDU area, it looks like we may be good with the main band coming in closer to mid-night (per current models and what B.Panovich stated above). WRAL also seems to think this will be the scenario, but RAH is much more vague and even has "Likely" precip starting at ~6pm for my grid location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 For our Northern Counties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 I've said it before, I'll say it again: Rarely do nighttime (Especially 9PM-12AM) events live up to hype. I think Triad through western VA will have a nasty/severe squall line but RARELY do these things hold together from a severe perspective east of that much after sundown. I expect no different today, despite the enhanced risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: I've said it before, I'll say it again: Rarely do nighttime (Especially 9PM-12AM) events live up to hype. I think Triad through western VA will have a nasty/severe squall line but RARELY do these things hold together from a severe perspective east of that much after sundown. I expect no different today, despite the enhanced risk area. I think a lot also depends on how much the instability is available. I have seen many breaks in the clouds in the CLT metro. If I recall, it was supposed to be cloudy all day. But yes, it's more difficult to get severe weather after sunset, but it's not unheard of. Especially with all the other ingredients that are coming together. It'll be interesting to see what the SPC does for their next update. The HRRR model that Brad posted shows some impressive rotation in these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 We just had about 10 minutes of sun here in the Triad too. Got real uncomfortable and Julyish real quick. Hoping we dont end up with more of that this afternoon. Does anyone have the forecasted Capes across NC for trick or treating hours? I need a mobile friendly link if available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 No sun in the Triangle area yet, but extremely gusty south winds. Warm, imagine if we see some breaks we could shoot into the 80's fairly rapidly. Some concerning severe parameters especially west and north of my location. Will be interesting to see if some of the sunshine others are noting lead to increased instability and maximize the storm potential during peak heating hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 The sun has been peaking out for a solid 4 hours. I’m currently sitting at 83 and the heat index is 87. Never thought I’d be saying that on Halloween. Definitely not good as these storms look to occur during peak heating. I have a sinking feeling that things are going to get pretty nasty. Definitely a spooky situation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Looks like with the speed of this thing, the upstate wil be clear in time for trick or treating, but many neighborhoods and places have already moved it until tomorow evening regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just like that the clouds parted and the sun is out in full in the Raleigh area. Did not expect the clouds to abate this quickly or entirely. Not great... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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