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General Severe Weather


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10 hours ago, shaggy said:

Does someone want to explain what we are seeing between 3:20 and 3:30 in this video? It looks like sinking air like a downburst that then gets sucked back up? Or is it a fake?

 

I don't see a tornado. To me, it just looks like a rotating supercell.  Due to the distance and trees and buildings it give a false impression that the cloud reaches the ground. The large amount of zoom used for almost the entire video enhances that effect.  He pulls back for just a few seconds. You can see the zoom from 6:35-6:45. 

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10 minutes ago, jburns said:

I don't see a tornado. To me, it just looks like a rotating supercell.  Due to the distance and trees and buildings it give a false impression that the cloud reaches the ground. The large amount of zoom used for almost the entire video enhances that effect.  He pulls back for just a few seconds. You can see the zoom from 6:35-6:45. 

Go to around the 2:10 mark. After he leaves the school, you can clearly see the tornado.

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40 minutes ago, jburns said:

I don't see a tornado. To me, it just looks like a rotating supercell.  Due to the distance and trees and buildings it give a false impression that the cloud reaches the ground. The large amount of zoom used for almost the entire video enhances that effect.  He pulls back for just a few seconds. You can see the zoom from 6:35-6:45. 

At 3:25ish a puff of cloud runs out and does a perfect loop back up into the storm. It's right after he passes a house at 3:25 minute mark.

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8 hours ago, jburns said:

I don't see a tornado. To me, it just looks like a rotating supercell.  Due to the distance and trees and buildings it give a false impression that the cloud reaches the ground. The large amount of zoom used for almost the entire video enhances that effect.  He pulls back for just a few seconds. You can see the zoom from 6:35-6:45. 

At around 2:30, you can see large debris being lofted. This is clearly a large tornado, and that descending motion is real. Horizontal vortexes are not uncommon with well developed tornadoes.

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Heres another tornado that at 2 minutes in you see wind coming towards the windshield. The you literally see and hear the calm for a couple seconds then the winds come from the right. Literally the calm of the eye effect even if for a second....awesome

 

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NWS SPCVerified account @NWSSPC 7m7 minutes ago

 

7:44am CDT #SPC Day1 Outlook Slight Risk: across montana/western north dakota http://go.usa.gov/YWq5 

D-37DFcU8AMoo5Z.jpg

 
 ...Carolinas/southern Virginia...
   A moist summertime air mass will remain across the region with ample
   insolation coincident with relatively cloud-free skies early in the
   day. As the air mass quickly destabilizes and becomes moderately
   unstable, scattered thunderstorms will develop/increase through the
   afternoon initially near the mountains/Blue Ridge and near a weak
   surface trough across the region. While tropospheric winds will
   remain weak and mid-level lapse rates are poor, diurnally steepening
   low-level lapse and ample Precipitable Water could yield at least a
   few instances of wet microbursts and locally damaging winds.
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4 minutes ago, Solak said:

NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 8s8 seconds ago

 

The latest @NWSSPC outlook has upgraded areas along and east of US-1 to a "Marginal Risk" (1 of 5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts from downbursts are possible from the strongest cells. Flash flooding is also a concern. #NCwxD-9-FyxU8AMl827.jpg

A sting of 40 to 60% pops and I've gotten less than a .25 inch. Today is the last day of decent chances so if it doesnt happen today then my yard is gonna go south even quicker.

HRRR has most of the action just to my south today so we will see.

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  • 2 weeks later...
If that's true, why have the past several winters been so benign?

Winters are getting warmer and with it being so close to rain vs snow it doesn’t take much of an increase to make just about all storms end up as cold rain here like we have been seeing the last few years. Now up north they are getting more heavy snow events because warmer air holds more moisture and they have time before it warms up enough to turn their snow storms into rain storms.


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The storm that was tornado warned in JoCo moved through my area of Wake in Willow Spring.  We had very heavy gusts at my home, approximately 55-60 mph at least.  Strongest winds I've seen in a long time.  It knocked my power out for 5 hours.  
When the power came on, I saw that one local station said there was a possible tornado that moved through my area (near Highway 42 and Hilltop Rd).  I remember watching the velocities during this time on RadarScope and I didn't see any couplets, just straight-line.  However, there is the exact same cell that moved into JoCo and prompted the tornado warning, so I guess it is possible that something extremely brief touched down or at least lowered.  

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17 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

 so I guess it is possible that something extremely brief touched down or at least lowered.  

3 E Fuquay-Varina [Wake Co, NC] NWS STORM SURVEY reports TORNADO at 23 Jul, 2:34 PM EDT -- A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN OCCURRED IN THE COMMUNITY OF WILLOW SPRINGS, NC ON JULY 23, 2019. THE DAMAGE CONSISTED OF A COMBINATION OF SNAPPED AND UPROOTED TREES, MINOR SIDING DAMAGE TO ONE HOME, AND NUMEROUS FENCES BLOWN DOWN. THE TYPES AND DIAMETERS OF THE AFFECTED TREES ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF DAMAGE SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS OF 75 TO 85 MPH.

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Had one over this way as well...

...Summary...
A brief tornado touched down 11 miles southwest of Clayton, in 
the Cleveland area of Johnston County, near the intersection of 
Cornwallis Road and Justin Drive and lifted near the intersection 
of Goldfield Drive and Justin Drive on July 23, 2019. Damage 
observed included minor shingle loss on several homes, numerous 
softwood trees snapped, and lawn furniture tossed a substantial 
distance. Damage is consistent with a brief tornado with maximum 
wind speeds of 80 to 90 mph.
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  • 2 weeks later...
23 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Hrrr is uninspiring.

Most short-range modelling seems to have backed off on storm chances today from Triangle south. Still seems the storms that do fire will have the potential to be strong, especially with the extreme heat today. We will have to watch the 3-5:00 timeframe closely today to see where storms do fire on the southern outflow from the convection moving through VA and also where localized enhancement takes place. Me thinks a few good storms are possible, though widespread aerial coverage seems lackluster

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  • 2 weeks later...

I'm surprised no one mentioned the severe weather from Monday. Drove through the Southwestern side of Raleigh (Centennial Campus Area) and there was a good amount of tree damage (Leaves, branches, and full trees blown down). Seemed like there were several storms of this magnitude around that afternoon so I'd expect similar damage. We had nearly 20k outages that afternoon too and many of our crews worked into the night to get power back on. 

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