Orangeburgwx Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 This is from 1025pm (waiting on the update) Friday, a cold front riddled with convection will work through the CWA from west to east. I have high confidence that everyone will see rain, starting in the northwestern counties during the morning, then reaching the eastern areas by afternoon. We are still 2 days away from the event, so there could be some adjustments needed to the timing. As far as the severe threat is concerned, the current slight risk from SPC looks like the most reasonable course of action this far in advance. However, it would not surprise to see the enhanced risk expanded westward by at least a couple of tiers of counties when the new Friday forecast from SPC comes out overnight. Shear looks to be very strong Friday, with the area in the favorable quadrant 100+ knot jet at 500 mb. Instability will be modest because mid lapse lapse rates will only be seasonable, but it won`t take a ton of CAPE to cause problems given the expected bulk shear. The biggest area of uncertainty lies with the convective evolution, as well as the mesoscale high/low couplet that should form with forcing this strong. The GFS is not picking up well on this, whereas the 00Z/06Z ECMWF and the 12Z hi res guidance do have a reflection of this evolution. If the ECMWF/NAM solution is correct with the mesolow moving north northeastward bisecting the CWA on Friday, areas along and east of the mesolow track will have an enhanced risk of severe weather, including tornadoes, due to increased low level helicity, increased surface convergence, and the potential for stronger rear inflow jets behind any bow echos that form. Unfortunately, our models are simply not good enough yet to forecast the exact evolution of these features 48 hours in advance, so we just have to mention the possibility in our discussions and hope we can refine things more as we get closer to the event. There will also be some heavy rain with the front as PWs increase to 1.5+ inches under strong divergence aloft. At this time, excessive amounts do not seem likely due to the quick speed of the front, but local issues may arise that could require flood advisories, or possibly a warning or two in our flashy areas. One other issue Friday will be the winds ahead of the front. Given the strong winds expected at 850 mb, we will likely have strong enough winds mixing down to warrant at least a Lake Wind Advisory, if not a full on Wind Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, downeastnc said: There are a ton of reasons to not buy in totally to the NAM, but even if its over done by half thats still a rough day.....really I think its a safe bet that at the minimum we see several broken line segments all of which will produce severe criteria wind gust over a fairly large area, it should not be hard to get some impressive winds to the surface given the wind field aloft......the real question is do we get enough instability to fire those semi discrete supes with a leeside surface low..... Yeah but when the EURO backs it up?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 7 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: Yeah but when the EURO backs it up?... In my experience any time you have clouds and rain before the main storms are suppose to arrive the severity of the event is questionable. It takes a great setup to get widespread severe in those situations but it does and can happen. Just gonna be a wait and see kind of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 The latest briefing from NWS Raleigh shows the timing for central NC being between 1PM and 8PM. Though, looking at the latest NAM3K and HRRR, there appears to be some convection, perhaps discrete, popping up around 9-10AM. Anyone else seeing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 The latest briefing from NWS Raleigh shows the timing for central NC being between 1PM and 8PM. Though, looking at the latest NAM3K and HRRR, there appears to be some convection, perhaps discrete, popping up around 9-10AM. Anyone else seeing this?Yeah and even some rolling in before that around 3AM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 The NAM looks nasty. But as has been aforementioned, is it trustworthy? Should we get a separate thread going for tonight/tomorrow though? Or are we waiting to see what happens with the later guidance?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldsborosnow Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 . Marginal Risk for Eastern NC, VA, SC, and Central Florida tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 RAH: The s/w exiting the Deep South early Friday will phase with another (though weaker) s/w in the northern stream and lift newd across the Carolinas Friday afternoon, taking a slight negative tilt as it does so. Surface based instability has trended more unstable compared to 36-24 hours ago with the NAM depicting MLCAPE values between 500 and 1000 j/kg over the region by mid day. While the kinematics not as impressive as last Friday, presence of 35kts low level jet and central NC in the nose of a 100+kt upper jet will provide enough shear and lift to generate thunderstorms, some of which could be strong/locally severe. The main severe weather hazard will be locally damaging straightline winds. Based on current timing, the threat for a strong/severe storm will be mainly across the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills and the Coastal Plain during the afternoon hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldsborosnow Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 1:30pm SPC update: ...Carolinas to the Middle Atlantic region... Southern-stream shortwave trough will deamplify as it becomes absorbed within the base of an amplifying northern-stream trough and move off the Atlantic Seaboard early Friday. The northern-stream trough will continue through the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic region during the day accompanied by a cold front. Modest low-level moisture with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s F will advect through the warm sector along a 50 kt low-level jet. This in conjunction with some cloud breaks will destabilize the boundary layer with MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg possible. Some thunderstorms may be ongoing along the NC coast early Friday in association with the leading shortwave trough. Farther upstream, storms are expected to intensify along and ahead of the cold front as the boundary layer destabilizes from VA into NC and possibly as far south as SC. Strengthening mid-upper wind profiles accompanying the northern-stream shortwave trough will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of embedded organized structures with storms developing within the evolving squall line and some supercells with any storms developing ahead of the line. Damaging wind appears to be the main threat, but isolated tornadoes are also possible. Severe threat should end by early evening as the cold front moves offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 Charlotte News & Observer headline. Life-threatening ‘microbursts’ may erupt as storms hit I-77 corridor Friday afternoon https://www.newsobserver.com/news/state/north-carolina/article229663139.html?fbclid=IwAR1Kw-JK4RFEPSs5s3zGfy0YXkAdCM4ObUlM46gRLfftWHew-av1cE8qnjA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 Coming in at peak heating... RAH: Showers and scattered storms moving into the W CWA at the start of this period are expected to grow upscale and strengthen as they head E through Fri afternoon and encounter increasing diurnal destabilization within a background of strengthening deep layer shear. A nose of 50-60 kt mid level winds will spread in during the afternoon, just behind a 40-45 kt SW 850 mb jet and beneath strengthening upper divergence along and just ahead of the trough axis. These improving kinematics in conjunction with marginal to moderate destabilization should facilitate organization of convection into a wavy line or bowing segments capable of producing pockets of straight line wind damage, with a lesser risk of a weak tornado or two. The primary threat will be in the afternoon, decreasing by early evening as the surface cold front sweeps to our E and brings about late-night W-to-E clearing. Highs should range from the lower 70s NW, a minimal diurnal rise due to the clouds and precip, ranging to the upper 70s/near 80 E. With cold air advection Fri night, lows should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Frequent gusts to 25-30 kts are expected with SW surface winds ahead of the front, with gustiness lingering into early evening immediately behind the front as winds veer to W and WNW. -GIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 27, 2019 Share Posted April 27, 2019 Tornado damage reported in Swan Quarter....question is whether it was a waterspout or true tornado....what say you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 28, 2019 Share Posted April 28, 2019 The US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC team investigated yesterday and determined that the Swan Quarter area experienced a gustnado, not a tornado, on Friday. https://www.thecoastlandtimes.com/2019/04/28/swan-quarter-weather-event-actually-a-gustnado/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 4, 2019 Share Posted May 4, 2019 NWS SPCVerified account @NWSSPC 1m1 minute ago 11:36am CDT #SPC_MD 0528 , #scwx #ncwx #gawx, https://go.usa.gov/xmRVx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted May 4, 2019 Share Posted May 4, 2019 I know this isnt covering the Triad, but dang it sure feels like a thunderstorm kinda day. I just need some rain.....cant believe I just said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 4, 2019 Share Posted May 4, 2019 From RAH: As of 256 PM Saturday... The main concern the rest of today is the svr tstm potential assoc with the line of storms presently moving across E TN and W NC, along with the discrete cells out ahead of the line. Latest mesoanalysis shows 1500+ J/kg ML CAPE across a large portion of our CWA, while 0- 6km bulk shear is in the 25-30kt range, supportive of multicell clusters/line. The latest near-term CAMS, including the HRRR, suggest the main line will sweep across central NC, first reaching the Triad and our western zones between 5-7 PM, the Triangle region and US-corridor between 7-9 PM, and the I-95 corridor and coastal plain between 9 PM and midnight. Of course the isold-scat cells ahead of the main line will arrive earlier. The main hazard assoc with this activity is damaging straight-line winds, although some hail is possible with the earlier discrete cells. Then later tonight, another round of showers and perhaps tstms will move across central NC, this activity associated with the tstm complex currently moving across MS and AL. The HRRR suggests that this activity will sweep across central NC during the overnight hours. The svr potential will be limited however, since most of the CAPE should have been consumed by them thanks to the activity earlier in the evening. Nevertheless, heavy downpours will be possible, so will have the watch out for the potential for localized poor drainage flooding, which at night is always a heightened concern. Lows tonight in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 4, 2019 Share Posted May 4, 2019 NWS SPCVerified account @NWSSPC 2m2 minutes ago 2:37pm CDT #SPC Day1 Outlook Slight Risk: over parts of the southern/central high plains and from the central gulf coast northeastward to the mid-atlantic http://go.usa.gov/YWq5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 Slight risk up for Sunday so I guess we will see how much instability we can get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 132 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019 The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Cleveland County in the Piedmont of North Carolina... Northeastern Cherokee County in Upstate South Carolina... * Until 200 PM EDT. * At 131 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 6 miles southwest of Shelby, or near Earl, moving east at 30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 216 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019 The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a * Tornado Warning for... South central Gaston County in the Piedmont of North Carolina... * Until 245 PM EDT. * At 216 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles west of Gastonia, or over Crowders Mountain State Park, moving east at 15 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 Really nice couplet, getting rain wrapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 Tornado Warning National Weather Service Raleigh NC 451 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2019 The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Anson County in central North Carolina... Southwestern Montgomery County in central North Carolina... Northwestern Richmond County in central North Carolina... Southeastern Stanly County in central North Carolina... * Until 515 PM EDT * At 450 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Ansonville, or 13 miles north of Wadesboro, moving east at 25 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Didn't expect this today... 1022 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2019 The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Nash County in central North Carolina... Northwestern Wilson County in central North Carolina... Northeastern Johnston County in central North Carolina... * Until 1100 AM EDT * At 1022 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Zebulon, or 18 miles east of Raleigh, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Nashville, Wilson, Bailey, Spring Hope, Middlesex, Sims, Buckhorn Reservoir, New Hope and Tar River Reservoir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, Solak said: Didn't expect this today... Looks solid on radar as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Not a good time for RAH Radar to be down for service. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Quarter size hail here at the house in that Tor Warned JoCo storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Hook was JUST to our N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Some monster hail being shown back near garner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 Got a great picture of the Zebulon tornado from my cousin, but can not get it to load on here. Has something changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastwx Posted May 13, 2019 Share Posted May 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, shaggy said: Some monster hail being shown back near garner. Largest hail I've personally seen at I40-Hwy42 Cleveland area. Golf ball with a few getting up to baseball range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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