SENC Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 Winter is DONE stick a fork in it.. Upstream Mid West Folks are Welcome! 10 reported tornadoes hit Arkansas, Louisiana as severe storms continue to sweep across country https://abcnews.go.com/US/south-braces-tornadoes-severe-weather/story?id=61574545 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Nobody is covering the longlived TDS supercells in Central Alabama? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 March 14 has a thread in Tennessee Valley. I called it Pi Day being a little silly. At first we thought most of the severe weather would be in our region. As it evolved south of the Tenn Valley people just kept going on the thread. Sorry if we hijacked your region. At any rate, it is a fairly interesting thread. Posts show the progression of thought from forecast to nowcasts to reports. Cheers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Thursday severe weather is possible in southern Mississippi. Models forecast adequate speed and directional shear. Appears moisture will be there in time, especially I-20 south. I would focus on the lifting boundary showed by both conceptual models and numerical models. Morning rain is forecast in northern Mississippi. Should keep a lifting warm-front like feature defined. Pre-frontal trough comes in from the west ahead of the cold front, key for robust severe. Right on the cold front is usually trash. Prefrontal trough can be better. Intersection of those boundaries is currently forecast in central Mississippi. More rain would push it toward I-20. Less rain would put northern Mississippi in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 HRRR tries to get supercells going on the warm front in Mississippi on Saturday. No other CAM (I've seen) agrees. Warm mid-levels. Erratic upper level winds (bad hodograph). Bulk shear is good and so is instability. However I'm real skeptical of anything but a messy blob. Good news for folks who don't like intense severe. Though some wind/hail is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 18Z NAM showing some strong cells in central NC Monday night. RAH mentions severe threat with an isolated tornado possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldsborosnow Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 SPC went with a much larger slight risk area with the 2:00am update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 Here's the 12z HRRR sounding over central NC at 20z. Storms begin to initiate shortly after this sounding at 21z. Damaging winds, and hail seem to be the main threats. Wouldn't rule out a spin up on the more discrete cells that form ahead of the main line of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 NWS Eastern RegionVerified account @NWSEastern 53s54 seconds ago Potential for severe thunderstorms today & tonight across parts of the Southeast & southern mid Atlantic regions. Damaging wind gusts % large hail are the primary threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible, as well as torrential downpours producing localized flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 Seems awfully wedgy this morning for severe. But there's time to clear out a bit I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 40 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Seems awfully wedgy this morning for severe. But there's time to clear out a bit I suppose. It want be long until the sun starts to break through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 RAH: 10:50AM Some caveats to this set-up will be: a.) low stratus deck this morning is inhibiting heating. If this low cloud deck is slow to dissipate, this will inhibit heating later this afternoon, resulting in lower than expected available instability; b.) 12Z GSO sounding depicts a rather thick layer of warm air between 850-700mb. Model projections suggest this layer becoming cooler late this afternoon with the approach of the mid level perturbation. If this fails to materialize, the presence of this warm layer will inhibit convection depth/development; c.) lack of a low level boundary to focus convection and enhance low level shear/helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, Solak said: RAH: 10:50AM Some caveats to this set-up will be: a.) low stratus deck this morning is inhibiting heating. If this low cloud deck is slow to dissipate, this will inhibit heating later this afternoon, resulting in lower than expected available instability; b.) 12Z GSO sounding depicts a rather thick layer of warm air between 850-700mb. Model projections suggest this layer becoming cooler late this afternoon with the approach of the mid level perturbation. If this fails to materialize, the presence of this warm layer will inhibit convection depth/development; c.) lack of a low level boundary to focus convection and enhance low level shear/helicity. That's good analysis from RAH. The sun is beginning to break through now in south Greensboro, seeing some blue sky finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 47 minutes ago, jjwxman said: That's good analysis from RAH. The sun is beginning to break through now in south Greensboro, seeing some blue sky finally. We broke out around 10am in the coastal plains and the temp jumped up fast. Still under mostly full sun with a few high clouds at times. HRRR has cone around to showi g a better line of storms so we will see if these inhibiting factors can be overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 Destabilizing quickly in eastern NC.....cape coming up fast, mid level lapse rates are good as usual the big wrench in the cogs is the shear.....20-25knts right now is not exactly blowing the doors off..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 2m2 minutes ago Latest update from @NWSSPC has upgraded portions of our forecast area (including the #Triad of #NCwx) to an ENHANCED RISK (3 of 5) for Severe Weather this evening. The forecast on timing remains the same, but the risk for damaging straight-line winds is increasing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 It stayed cloud covered so long this morning in the Triad that I thought for sure we were in the clear. Now sitting in a hot sun, 76° and watching some towers starting to rise back towards winston. Could get interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 Storm watches have been posted by RAH and Blacksburg. Now up to almost 80 here in the triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 Sitting at 84 here in Elizabeth City. Quite muggy as well. HVAC crapped out last week and I’m waiting for the new unit and air handler to come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 15 minutes ago, tramadoc said: Sitting at 84 here in Elizabeth City. Quite muggy as well. HVAC crapped out last week and I’m waiting for the new unit and air handler to come in. Its humid as hell. Over here in Currituck. At least those frozen wins off the sound we've had the past several days are gone. 83 degrees. Haven't turned on the AC yet but it's starting to get warm in the house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 Got up to 81 just down the road today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 84 over 61 waiting to see if these storms will hold up...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 Nothing even remotely interesting materialized here in the center of the Triad but hey look it's more rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: Its humid as hell. Over here in Currituck. At least those frozen wins off the sound we've had the past several days are gone. 83 degrees. Haven't turned on the AC yet but it's starting to get warm in the house. We were at jockeys ridge Saturday and it was so much windier on top of the dunes than even the parking lot. Wish I had my kestrel with me. It was pretty darn chilly too with waves of sea fog rolling past us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 Under our first severe warning of the year. Hearing some boomers out there. Hard to believe that 6 days ago it was only 37 degrees out! 81/64 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 Had a bit of a pollen haboob in Chapel Hill/Durham: And before the storms it looked like this in Durham: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, eyewall said: Had a bit of a pollen haboob in Chapel Hill/Durham: Did you take those pictures with a drone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 Had a good squall line pass through SW Harnett county, have been out of power for about 3 hours. Heavy rain, tons of lightning and quarter sized hail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 3 hours ago, tramadoc said: Sitting at 84 here in Elizabeth City. Quite muggy as well. HVAC crapped out last week and I’m waiting for the new unit and air handler to come in. That sucks but better now than mid-August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted April 9, 2019 Share Posted April 9, 2019 Looking at radar and the squall line is over the Chowan River and headed towards me in Pasquotank County. It’s about 2015 hours and I should see the storms by 2100. The wind has picked up appreciably in the last hour or so. It’s also cooled off quite a bit since sundown. I can see lightning to the west and hear the thunder as well. Gonna suck having to put the windows down with the HVAC out, but I have a nice big Wind Machine floor fan. Hopefully I can sleep without sweating my b**ls off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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