RedSky Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Last night under performed. Hmmm possibly we are starting a drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Ended up with 0.35" yesterday evening and 0.09" this morning for a 0.44" 2-day rain event total. Once the sun came out this morning, the temp has really started kicking back up again and it's currently at 77 (which was yesterday's high), a bit humid (dp 57), and party cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 13, 2019 Author Share Posted April 13, 2019 Current temp 78/DP 60/RH 49% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 76F and getting too hot for me. Would love to see a line of t-storms heading this way. No clue of my actual rainfall last night but it poured then stopped/ight, then poured then light..on and off all last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 13, 2019 Author Share Posted April 13, 2019 Temp up to 81 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 13, 2019 Author Share Posted April 13, 2019 Mt.Holly and Upton ref Sunday/Monday. Mt.Holly: .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... For Sunday, major low pressure system continues to lift northward to our west reaching Lake Erie by late day. This will continue to draw the warm front north through the area with the most noticeable affect by afternoon being the increased dew points as they will be in the 60s making it feel quite humid. Due to the winds being more S/SE as opposed to SW this will tend to keep low level moisture locked in through the boundary layer so not expecting much sunshine. Conditions should be mainly cloudy with lingering areas of drizzle and mist along with some scattered showers as weak impulses aloft move through. It shouldn`t be raining all day though and heavier showers and storms should stay to our west through the daytime hours. Highs will be mainly in the low to mid 70s except 60s across the southern Poconos and NW NJ. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overview... A mid-lvl trough and associated surface low will lift just north of the area at the start of the long term period, with the system`s cold front passing through the area Monday morning. Behind this system low-amplitude (mid-lvl) ridging will begin to develop by the middle of the week, although the presence of a stationary front near the area will result in a least a chance of precipitation during this period. The next amplified trough/closed low will begin to make its way towards the area towards the end of the workweek. Dailies: Sunday night-Monday morning: This will be an active period as the mid-lvl trough currently over Texas progresses towards the area, and the attendant surface low passes in the vicinity of Lakes Eerie/Ontario. Expect that most of the action will be centered around the passage of the system`s cold front Sunday night into Monday morning. The combination of deep layer moisture (PWATS near 1.5 inches) ahead of the front, modest mid- lvl lapse rates, and impressive kinematic profiles (60 + kts of bulk shear, > 50 kts of 0-3 km shear) will result in a severe threat with the frontal precipitation band. Much will be dependent upon how much surface-based instability can be manifested along and slightly ahead of the convective line, as this is always questionable in these nocturnal events. There is some isolated tornado threat given 0-1 SRH values approaching 300 m2/s2 and sub 1000m LCLs, however, given the linear convective mode the main threat will be straight-line winds. The GFS is the fastest with advancing the cold front (bringing it through in the 00-06Z time frame), however, leaned towards the slower high-res consensus solution this forecast package, which brings the bulk of the line into the area between 06-12Z (from west to east). In addition to the severe threat, given the high PWATs/sfc.dewpoints can`t rule out a flooding rain threat particularly in areas of eastern PA/NW NJ that received significant rain with the Friday night-Saturday morning system. The mitigating factor for hydro concerns will be the fast forward motion of the system. Monday: Drier air will filter in behind the cold front with precipitation tapering off over most of the area by late morning. The potential exception will be the Poconos/NW NJ where some light backside precip may develop Monday afternoon as the mid-lvl trough axis slides by. The main story during the day Monday will be gusty west-northwest winds behind the cold front. Given solid cold advection in the 925-850 layer, combined with 40-45 kts of flow at 850 expect fairly widesperad wind gusts of 30-35 kts Monday afternoon with gusts 35-40 kts also possible. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than Sunday but good mixing along with scattering clouds should keep maxes near if not slightly above normal. Upton: .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... East coast upper ridging will exist, ahead of a strong southern upper low over Texas shearing ne and interacting with a PAC shortwave moving towards the Great Lakes. The associated amplified shortwave trough will slide towards the east coast Sunday Night and then negatively tilt through the region Monday. Its resultant strengthening low pressure system will lift into the Ohio Valley Sunday and the eastern Great Lakes and Adirondacks Monday, with cold front approaching the region Sunday Night and pushing through the region Monday morning. On Sunday, a Canadian maritime airmass will be in place, with e flow and a strong inversion promoting stratus maintenance and areas of drizzle ahead of an approaching warm front. Temps will likely remain near seasonable, generally around 60 se coastal sections to mid 60s interior. LLJ strengthens late Sunday into Sunday Night with warm front most likely pushing north of the region in the aft/eve. Scattered showers possible with warm frontal passage, and then iso- sct showers and possibly a tstm in warm sector in the evening. Main action may be with band/s of heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorm late Sunday Night into Monday morning in response to deep layered lift and convergence of a +3-4 std pwat subtropical moisture plume ahead/along the approaching cold front. A general 3/4 to 1 1/2 inches of rain is likely, with locally higher amounts where any training occurs. See hydrology sections for impacts. Additionally, potential exists for isolated strong thunderstorms to be able to mix down the strong winds aloft to the ground, particularly west of the Hudson River where some weak surface instability is indicated ahead of the cold front. If any stronger storms develop in this high shear/low cape scenario, there is potential for rotation, but the potential is very low. Further east, a stronger low-level inversion will likely limit potential for downdrafts to mix to surface. If SPC HREF mean elevated instability is correct though, indicating borderline moderate elevated instability, the threat for strong thunderstorms would increase. Cold front and frontal rain band moves east Thursday morning, with shortwave axis and secondary cold front moving through in the afternoon. Scattered shower potential will likely continue in cyclonic flow until trough passage. Otherwise, windy conditions developing Monday afternoon and continue into Monday Night with NW winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts of 40 to 45 mph likely, with isolated gusts to 50 mph possible. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 ^Really enjoy seeing the words "cold front", "windy" "drier" ^Really dislike the words "warmer", "humid" "high(er) dew points" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 Current temp is still 71 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 Current temp 71/DP 63/RH 70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 We're socked in the clouds. I don't see it spc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: We're socked in the clouds. I don't see it spc. You don’t need clear skies in this setup. Just ask the folks in N Nc and S Va currently under TOR warnings and been socked in with clouds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 #socked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Dark clouds rolling in/out all day w/showers. Good stuff looks like later on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 Current temp 68/DP 61/RH 73% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 31 minutes ago, hazwoper said: You don’t need clear skies in this setup. Just ask the folks in N Nc and S Va currently under TOR warnings and been socked in with clouds Look at the batch that's actually going to hit us. Looks like maybe a rumble of thunder, let alone severe. Sticking with some rain but overall NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 Temp actually back up to 71 here after dropping back to 68 over the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Look at the batch that's actually going to hit us. Looks like maybe a rumble of thunder, let alone severe. Sticking with some rain but overall NBD. The SPC severe threat isn’t until overnight here. Guess we’ll see. It’s about wind and isolated tornadoes anyway, not typical summer severe/fropa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Temp has crept up this afternoon and currently @ 73 with dp 65. Pretty juicy out there and overcast with some lower level dark clouds moving up from the SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 2 hours ago, hazwoper said: The SPC severe threat isn’t until overnight here. Guess we’ll see. It’s about wind and isolated tornadoes anyway, not typical summer severe/fropa SPC going all out with tornado watches south of the Mason Dixon line. I wonder if the trend will continue into our neck of the woods, now that we're going to start losing the diurnal heat. Tricky setup, but yeah it also appears to me that they're being overly cautious given what's on the radar and the marginal CAPE and LI values. *Edit: However, nearly every meso model has us under the gun from like 3-6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 Current temp 61/DP 58/RH 88% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Watches just went up for like all PA counties west of Chester Co. Just a matter of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Tornado Warning up right along and south of the Mason Dixon line in MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Strong midlevel rotation on TOR warned cell moving into southern York Co., but no CC drop to conclude it's on the ground at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted April 15, 2019 Share Posted April 15, 2019 Tornado Warning up in York County above the Mason Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 15, 2019 Author Share Posted April 15, 2019 Pretty interesting discussions from Mt.Holly and Upton for late week/next weekend. Mt.Holly: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An unsettled period of weather is set for midweek as we have a warm front draped across the region. The warm front lifts into the area on Tuesday but starts to stall, leaving it draped across the region. The front is likely to wobble a bit north and south before it finally starts to move northward on Thursday. A strong cold front will then approach from the west and cross the region as we head into the weekend. Tuesday looks to be the driest day of the period as the front starts to develop to our west. As the front starts to push east and into our area, we may see some showers develop later in the day, mainly over the northwestern areas, before starting to spread across much of eastern Pennsylvania and northern and central New Jersey. Even as we head through Wednesday, best chances for rain will exist north and west of the I-95 corridor as the front remains nearly stationary and multiple shortwaves track along the boundary. The airmass appears to remain fairly stable so no thunderstorms are expected at this time. Areas across Delmarva and southern New Jersey are expected to remain mostly dry through Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure to our south should be strong enough to continue to influence their weather. The front finally lifts to the north later Thursday into Friday as low pressure over the midwest starts to move to the east. This low will track up through the Great Lakes region and then into eastern Canada by late Friday. The associated cold front will start to move into our area on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the fronts arrival on Friday night, and then will continue with the frontal passage into Saturday. The front looks to be strong as it arrives just after peak heating and conditions are expected to be fairly unstable. A very tight gradient will exist on Friday so expect rather gusty southerly winds to occur through the day. The cold front exits offshore on Saturday morning but a secondary cold front follows behind along with the deep upper low/trough. This may result in more showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. We may not clear out that quickly on Sunday as the upper low/trough moves through the area and then moves offshore Sunday night into Monday. && Upton: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper flow briefly flattens out to start the period with an upper low departing from the Canadian Maritimes. At the same time, a trough moves into the desert southwest. Later in the week, this feature will interact with northern branch energy, sending a frontal system into the area for the end of the week into the weekend. There is very good agreement with the 12Z ECMWF and GFS with the extent of phasing of the two branches and the progression of the aforementioned frontal system. The GGEM is a bit more progressive, especially with the lead frontal band precipitation Friday night into Saturday morning. A consensus forecast approach brings high pressure into the region Tuesday into Wednesday with a warm front approaching from the southwest. Prior to that time, gusty W winds will follow on the heels of deepening low pressure tracking northeast across the Canadian Maritimes. There could be some gusts up 30 kt through early Tuesday afternoon as winds gradually subside with high pressure building in from the west. There is a low chance of rain working in from the southwest Tuesday night. However, unlike 24 hours ago, it appears Wednesday will be dry as ridging builds in both aloft and at the surface. The northward progress of the warm front will likely be very slow due to an amplified ridge building along the eastern seaboard as the upper trough amplifies across the mid section of the country. Warm frontal passage has trended faster in the global guidance, lifting north of the region by daybreak Friday. A deep-layered southerly flow develops along the east coast as the upper ridge slowly translates east Thursday into Friday. A strong low-level jet ahead of the approaching cold front supports moderate to heavy warm conveyor belt rains with embedded thunderstorms late Friday night into the first half of Saturday. There will likely be timing changes through the week as the Pac jet energy has yet to move onshore. Additionally, a strong onshore flow Friday into Saturday will likely result in areas of stratus and fog, especially east of the Hudson River. Dew points are forecast to be in the 50s, but this may be conservative. Scattered showers may linger into Sunday depending on how quickly the upper trough/low passes through the area. As for temperatures, daytime highs will be near seasonable levels through Thursday before a warm frontal passage Friday morning. Lows will be several degrees above normal due to onshore flow and potential for stratus/fog. Following the warm front, warmer, humid conditions are likely with areas away from the coast getting into the 70s. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 15, 2019 Author Share Posted April 15, 2019 Temp back on the rise here after falling back to 61 a few hours ago. Current temp 66/DP 64/RH 89% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 15, 2019 Share Posted April 15, 2019 That wicked looking line in Central Pa is going to come a knocking at 3am the witching hour if it survives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 15, 2019 Author Share Posted April 15, 2019 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0358.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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