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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2019 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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Euro and GFS have the bomb but are just suppressed at this range. Fv3 held at 500mb with the setup but shifted S and E which is noise. Something to watch that at least has my interest. If models back off and just go to a weak late season system then yeah I can do without. But this time of year for me its go big or go home and some guidance has HECS looks 7 days out. Again just something to keep an eye on. We all know chances are slimmer than slim but since severe season looks to be delayed why not track?

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8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro and GFS have the bomb but are just suppressed at this range. Fv3 held at 500mb with the setup but shifted S and E which is noise. Something to watch that at least has my interest. If models back off and just go to a weak late season system then yeah I can do without. But this time of year for me its go big or go home and some guidance has HECS looks 7 days out. Again just something to keep an eye on. We all know chances are slimmer than slim but since severe season looks to be delayed why not track?

Something to watch for sure but not sure I like the chances with this one. seems very much thread the needle and we don't do that well around here.

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Mt.Holly Ref: Thursday and Friday

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
  Main story will continue to be strengthening coastal low as it moves  
  north. Forecast models continue to trend wetter with this system now  
  indicating a good potential for 1-2+ inches of rainfall to occur  
  over much of eastern PA into northern NJ. There will be rises on the  
  rivers but since conditions have been dry we don`t think this will  
  cause widespread hydro issues...at least on the mainstem rivers.  
  However the smaller creeks and streams will have to be watched as  
  some of these could overspill their banks, especially in areas that  
  see over 1.5 inches of rain. Urban and poor drainage type flooding  
  could also become an issue in spots though it doesn`t appear  
  rainfall rates will be enough for flash flooding. In terms of  
  details, surface low will continue to deepen through tomorrow as it  
  moves northward from Virginia toward the Delmarva by late day.  
  Expect an area wide all day type rainfall event for the area with  
  the heaviest rainfall rates looking to be over central and eastern  
  PA and eventually northern NJ. As mentioned in the near term  
  section, precip is likely to begin as a rain/snow mix over portions  
  of the southern Poconos but this should change to all rain by mid  
  morning. Highs thursday range from the upper 30s/low 40s over the  
  southern Poconos and NW NJ to the low to mid 50s over southern NJ  
  and the Delmarva.  
   
  Thursday night...low pressure continues to deepen as it moves N/NE  
  right over NJ then onward to southern New England. Rain will  
  continue at least into the early evening before tapering off SW to  
  NE as the system departs. In fact as cooler air is wrapped in behind  
  the system the rain is likely to end as a bit of wet snow over  
  the Poconos with some minor accumulation possible.  
   
  Heading into Friday, conditions should start mainly dry as the still  
  deepening low moves northeast through New England. Winds will  
  be gusty though as the pressure gradient increases behind the  
  departing system. NW winds gusting at least 20 to 30 mph can be  
  expected by the afternoon. Also during the afternoon, as the  
  main shortwave associated with the upper level low dives S/E  
  through the area this will spark some showers returning across  
  the area. Highs will range from around 40 over the southern  
  Poconos to the low to mid 50s over SE PA into central and  
  southern NJ.  
   
  The big concern for stronger winds looks to be Friday night into 
  Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens across the area in  
  the wake of a secondary cold front that crosses the area Friday  
  evening. Expecting peak gusts of at least 30 to 40 mph but have  
  some concerns gusts of 40 to 50 mph could be realized for a time 
  Friday night immediately following the passage of the front as  
  cold advection aids in mix down potential. However timing with  
  the diurnal cycle will be a mitigating factor. Cooler  
  temperatures will be the other story with low temps Friday night 
  generally in the 20s to low 30s and highs Saturday mainly in  
  the 30s and 40s except around 50 over the Delmarva. Combined  
  with the wind, this will result in wind chills in the 20s and  
  30s so a good 10 degrees colder than the actual temps.  
  Otherwise, other than a few lingering snow showers over the  
  southern Poconos area should be precip free under variable cloud 
  cover. &&

 

 

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Looks like the GFS is showing a wet start to April with plenty of precipitation possible.

 

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Shocking 

Disgusting actually. I don't know about anyone else, but I am sick and tired of precipitation (in any form) right now. Have we strung 5 straight sunny days in row together since last July? I'm not sure, but it doesn't seem like we did.

 

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