Hurricane Agnes Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Have been getting >1"/hr rates. Up to 0.19" at post time. Not much lightning and little or no thunder as it is passing over. Temp down to 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Looks like it's mostly done. Picked up 0.21" from that. Temp is down to 60 now and falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Almost completely fell apart. Hopefully it's not a sign of things to come. Only had one good thunderstorm here last year, then a bogus winter. There has to be weather at some point, yeah? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 Just saw there was a mesonet report (Larchmont) in Penn Wynne, Delco of a 62 mph wind gust when the storm came through there almost an hour ago. ETA - bucket tipped over to give me 0.22". Temp is down to 58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 16, 2019 Author Share Posted March 16, 2019 Had some pretty decent thunder/lighting and gusty winds as the storms moved thru earlier. Picked up 0.22" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 huge LOL bet it verifies too. first coastal in 4 months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 So much for the big talk three days ago of no rain for the next 10 days, I could tell that was a big joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 The GFS which was great all winter completely bungled today's "snow" and the last system, humorous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 And the ECM is 1" rain on Thursday what a way to run a dry streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 5 hours ago, The Iceman said: huge LOL bet it verifies too. first coastal in 4 months... Tucked coastal low. Same thing all winter when we actually had development along the coast. pfft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 The system modeled a few days later looks like a more favorable track: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 32F here and the peepers are singing, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Chase it Ralph 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 6 hours ago, RedSky said: Chase it Ralph It's....it's.....glorious! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 CMC on board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Euro and GFS have the bomb but are just suppressed at this range. Fv3 held at 500mb with the setup but shifted S and E which is noise. Something to watch that at least has my interest. If models back off and just go to a weak late season system then yeah I can do without. But this time of year for me its go big or go home and some guidance has HECS looks 7 days out. Again just something to keep an eye on. We all know chances are slimmer than slim but since severe season looks to be delayed why not track? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro and GFS have the bomb but are just suppressed at this range. Fv3 held at 500mb with the setup but shifted S and E which is noise. Something to watch that at least has my interest. If models back off and just go to a weak late season system then yeah I can do without. But this time of year for me its go big or go home and some guidance has HECS looks 7 days out. Again just something to keep an eye on. We all know chances are slimmer than slim but since severe season looks to be delayed why not track? Something to watch for sure but not sure I like the chances with this one. seems very much thread the needle and we don't do that well around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 It would keep us open into April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2019 Author Share Posted March 20, 2019 Mt.Holly Ref: Thursday and Friday .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main story will continue to be strengthening coastal low as it moves north. Forecast models continue to trend wetter with this system now indicating a good potential for 1-2+ inches of rainfall to occur over much of eastern PA into northern NJ. There will be rises on the rivers but since conditions have been dry we don`t think this will cause widespread hydro issues...at least on the mainstem rivers. However the smaller creeks and streams will have to be watched as some of these could overspill their banks, especially in areas that see over 1.5 inches of rain. Urban and poor drainage type flooding could also become an issue in spots though it doesn`t appear rainfall rates will be enough for flash flooding. In terms of details, surface low will continue to deepen through tomorrow as it moves northward from Virginia toward the Delmarva by late day. Expect an area wide all day type rainfall event for the area with the heaviest rainfall rates looking to be over central and eastern PA and eventually northern NJ. As mentioned in the near term section, precip is likely to begin as a rain/snow mix over portions of the southern Poconos but this should change to all rain by mid morning. Highs thursday range from the upper 30s/low 40s over the southern Poconos and NW NJ to the low to mid 50s over southern NJ and the Delmarva. Thursday night...low pressure continues to deepen as it moves N/NE right over NJ then onward to southern New England. Rain will continue at least into the early evening before tapering off SW to NE as the system departs. In fact as cooler air is wrapped in behind the system the rain is likely to end as a bit of wet snow over the Poconos with some minor accumulation possible. Heading into Friday, conditions should start mainly dry as the still deepening low moves northeast through New England. Winds will be gusty though as the pressure gradient increases behind the departing system. NW winds gusting at least 20 to 30 mph can be expected by the afternoon. Also during the afternoon, as the main shortwave associated with the upper level low dives S/E through the area this will spark some showers returning across the area. Highs will range from around 40 over the southern Poconos to the low to mid 50s over SE PA into central and southern NJ. The big concern for stronger winds looks to be Friday night into Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens across the area in the wake of a secondary cold front that crosses the area Friday evening. Expecting peak gusts of at least 30 to 40 mph but have some concerns gusts of 40 to 50 mph could be realized for a time Friday night immediately following the passage of the front as cold advection aids in mix down potential. However timing with the diurnal cycle will be a mitigating factor. Cooler temperatures will be the other story with low temps Friday night generally in the 20s to low 30s and highs Saturday mainly in the 30s and 40s except around 50 over the Delmarva. Combined with the wind, this will result in wind chills in the 20s and 30s so a good 10 degrees colder than the actual temps. Otherwise, other than a few lingering snow showers over the southern Poconos area should be precip free under variable cloud cover. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2019 Author Share Posted March 20, 2019 It looks like the 18z NAM increased rainfall amounts over a good portion of NJ for Thursday/Friday. Now showing 2-3" with 1-2" amounts everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Incredible from a predicted to be dry week to now likely flooding it's like the super soaker pattern is never going to end. The mud had finally started to revert back into soil by today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Ralph's unicorn visits DT next week on today's ECM. Didn't he declare winter over a week ago lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 21, 2019 Author Share Posted March 21, 2019 Mt.Holly pulls the trigger and issues a Flood Watch here from 8:00 am this morning thru late tonight for 1.5"-2.0" of rain w/locally higher amounts possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 21, 2019 Author Share Posted March 21, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 24, 2019 Author Share Posted March 24, 2019 Really nice day out there today. Current temp is 60 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 24, 2019 Author Share Posted March 24, 2019 Looks like the GFS is showing a wet start to April with plenty of precipitation possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 22 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Looks like the GFS is showing a wet start to April with plenty of precipitation possible. Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: Looks like the GFS is showing a wet start to April with plenty of precipitation possible. 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Shocking Disgusting actually. I don't know about anyone else, but I am sick and tired of precipitation (in any form) right now. Have we strung 5 straight sunny days in row together since last July? I'm not sure, but it doesn't seem like we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Friday and Saturday looking like nice beach days, have to focus on the silver linings eight months into an epic crap weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Incredible how a 30% chance of rain means 100% now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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