JTA66 Posted April 29, 2019 Share Posted April 29, 2019 Got down to 35F with some scattered frost on the lawns and car windshield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted April 29, 2019 Share Posted April 29, 2019 Ended up with a low of 36 here this morning but because the dp was in the 20s and the breeze kept up overnight and this morning, no frost would've been able to really form. Temp did rebound though and currently 53 and partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted April 29, 2019 Share Posted April 29, 2019 38.5 here this morning. Just reached 58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 29, 2019 Share Posted April 29, 2019 The sun comes back on Sunday, the spring of you know what continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 30, 2019 Author Share Posted April 30, 2019 Late week into the weekend continues to look very wet. Current temp is 64 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Nice day about 30% sun and comfy temps bustorama with the showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted April 30, 2019 Share Posted April 30, 2019 Cool and rainy w/severe storms at times till Fall....count me in. We all know this won't happen. Summer rarely underachieves...however we always seem to have problems reaching average in the winter... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 1, 2019 Author Share Posted May 1, 2019 Mt.Holly & Upton ref late week/weekend Temps, heavy rain/storms. Really excellent discussion from Mt.Holly Mt.Holly: .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... In "short," what a mess. Starting with the convection ongoing in the central/southern plains into the Midwest, the models performed noticeably better than with the prior day`s convection, but there were still some issues (mostly with convection allowing for front/outflow boundary propagation displaced southeastward from previous progs). Additionally, the models (hi-res and coarser operational) whiffed on the long-lasting weak mesoscale convective system moving from the Ohio Valley through much of PA before dissipating in MD/DE and adjacent areas this evening. I start with the above because, as discussed last night, the relatively poor verification of convection (on Monday) has wreaked havoc with the model forecasts (and trends) during the past 24 hours and will likely continue today. For example, the NAM surface pressure trends the past 24 hours have been for much higher pressure in the Great Lakes/Northeast Thursday and Friday (with implications of this to be discussed at length below), and the GFS has trended with slightly lower pressure in much of the Southeast through the period. The GFS has also trended slightly weaker and faster with the ridging in the eastern U.S. All of these trends make sense to me to some degree given the delayed onset of widespread convection in the central U.S. and the somewhat more progressive nature of the mesoscale phenomena associated with the storms (and upscale effects on larger-scale features). There continues to be a sizable amount of disagreement of timing/location of convection downstream in the eastern U.S. associated with the plethora of perturbations convectively generated or attendant to the widespread storms in the central U.S. However, there appears to be some model convergence for Thursday. Two perturbations appear to eject from the larger- scale trough in the central U.S. The first comes Thursday morning, with some showers/storms expected to initiate in portions of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. The 00z NAM Nest develops some rather vigorous convection (with hints of this in the 00z RGEM as well), and the environment is certainly appearing increasingly favorable thermodynamically (MLCAPE/SBCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg during the afternoon). With deep-layer vertical shear of 30-40 kts, could at least see some strong (perhaps a few severe) storms during peak heating. Exact placement needs to be worked out, with some indications that areas south of Interstate 78 appear most at risk. Notably, the 00z GFS/ECMWF develop convection in the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon as well, with precipitation lingering for much of the night as the second perturbation approaches. The big wild card will be what transpires upstream of these perturbations. The 00z NAM blasts the region with onshore flow and much cooler and more stable air by Friday (differences of 20+ degrees in surface temps; note the implications of higher pressure in the northern U.S. mentioned above). Meanwhile, the GFS and ECMWF are much warmer, inducing southerly flow as a third perturbation approaches the region on Friday. Should these latter solutions materialize, another line of loosely- organized convection is expected to develop and move through the area. However, the NAM solution would suggest more substantial convection is in question and may be displaced south/west of the area. Given what has transpired the past 24 hours, it is quite difficult to discount the colder NAM solution and have at least incorporated it into the temp/dew point forecast Thursday and Friday. I also capped PoPs on Friday to chance given the large discrepancies that have developed with the surface pattern among the models. It is worthy of noting the NAM looks suspiciously dry in the Northeast for much of this period and appears to be an outlier with the convective evolution upstream as well. For the weekend...the front appears to linger close enough to the area to allow a potentially significant storm to affect the area. The 00z GFS/ECMWF eject a southern-stream vort max from an upstream/amplified trough in the plains (around 18z Friday) and rapidly intensify it as it phases with a northern-stream perturbation on Saturday and Saturday night. Rapid cyclogenesis occurs in the Mid-South and Ohio Valley during this period, with widespread convection expected to develop in its vicinity. This system approaches the area Saturday night, so have increased PoPs during this period substantially. As could probably be deduced already, the temperature forecast is subject to large errors given the huge uncertainty with the surface pattern, especially Thursday night and Friday. Errors of 10 or more degrees are possible for much of the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The developing low to our southwest on Saturday appears to move through or near our area on Sunday. Though the low remains fairly weak from a sea-level pressure magnitude standpoint, there will be a rather impressive setup for high QPF should the 00z GFS/ECMWF verify. With right-entrance region dynamics provided by a retreating anticyclonic 250-mb jet streak in New England and intensifying differential cyclonic vorticity advection in the midlevels, the high-octane air provided by the slowly retreating subtropical ridge in the eastern U.S. will provide a highly favorable environment for heavy rainfall. The QPF from the 00z GFS and ECMWF is quite impressive, with 1-2+ inch amounts in a 6-12 hour period in most of the CWA. That spells flooding potential, and I have highlighted this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. There may also be potential for warm- sector convection in portions of the CWA, but this is quite uncertain since models are just beginning to converge on a solution here. Notably, the CMC was discounted owing to its suspiciously high influence of tropical convection in the Bahamas. Of course, a lot of uncertainty remains with the above scenario. This involves phasing systems, a highly unpredictable predecessor front, and antecedent convection allowing for the synoptic-scale players to materialize. There appears to be a brief break in the action Monday and possibly Tuesday before another cold front approaches, perhaps reloading a very similar pattern thereafter. && Upton: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Chances for light rain will increase tonight as a sfc warm front approaches. Areas of fog should also develop mainly in coastal sections and mainly after midnight as the warm front nears, and this fog could become locally dense. After dog burns off thu morning, big questions as to how far north and east the warm front will lift through for a time on Thu before a back door cold front pushes to the south and west. There is about 20 degrees of spread between the coolest and warmest model guidance, from the lower 60s to lower 80s across NE NJ, and lower 50s to lower 70s across SE CT. Forecast takes more of a middle ground approach between the NAM and ECMWF, ranging from the mid 50s across eastern areas to near 70 in NE NJ. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cloudy and wet pattern will persist across the area as deep layer ridging remains firm over the western Atlantic and a long wave trough lingers across the western U.S. The ridge axis then retrogrades and rebuilds across the Central U.S. by early next week. Initially the extended period will be dominated by southwesterly flow aloft, advecting Gulf moisture into the region, with periods of rain possible. Thereafter, troughing becomes more prevalent across the Northeast as a result of the ridge building upstream. For Thursday night, confluent flow aloft will shift offshore, with the associated surface high following, allowing a back door cold front to move through the area quite quickly overnight. The boundary then stalls slightly to the west during the day time, through may begin to return northward as a warm front as flow shifts to a more southerly direction ahead of the next approaching front. There is some uncertainty as to potential destabilization, depending on how far the warm front can progress, but with height falls and the quickly following cold front, there is potential for a rumble of thunder across the interior. Expect temperatures to be coolest across the coastal areas for Friday. Should the warmer guidance pan out across the interior, temps over western zones could end up about 10-15 warmer than currently forecast. The cold front then stalls offshore Saturday with a wave of low pressure developing along it to our SW. The low eventually passes to our south at some point Sunday into Sunday evening. This keeps the threat of more rain through the entire period, but will cap PoPs at 50% this far out. If the low passes farther to the south on Sunday, similar to the Canadian solution, then rainfall chances will be lower than currently forecast. A cold front then brings low chances of showers and Monday, then will go with a dry forecast for Tuesday into Tuesday night as weak high pressure builds in behind the front. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 On 4/29/2019 at 6:01 PM, RedSky said: The sun comes back on Sunday, the spring of you know what continues Sunday looks like rain...or some rain. Landscapers are caught in the middle. Rain makes the grass grow but prevents them from cutting it. Give me today till Fall...actually feels and looks like Fall out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Sunday looks like rain...or some rain. Landscapers are caught in the middle. Rain makes the grass grow but prevents them from cutting it. Give me today till Fall...actually feels and looks like Fall out there. The sun came back yesterday way ahead of schedule and so far zero showers. Randomized weather continues. Tomorrow looks interesting as we crash from afternoon highs up in the 80's down to the 40's with backdoor flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 3 hours ago, RedSky said: The sun came back yesterday way ahead of schedule and so far zero showers. Randomized weather continues. Tomorrow looks interesting as we crash from afternoon highs up in the 80's down to the 40's with backdoor flow. Watch the radar type of things.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 1, 2019 Share Posted May 1, 2019 Spring of azz kicking it up a notch. Continue one month past May and we have the year of azz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Spring 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 2, 2019 Author Share Posted May 2, 2019 I can see the weather turning on a dime by mid month from the cooler/wet conditions we are seeing now to warmer and more humid weather with the wet pattern continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 100% sun and 70F random weather generator put out a good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 2, 2019 Author Share Posted May 2, 2019 Current temp is 78 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 2, 2019 Author Share Posted May 2, 2019 Current temp 79/DP 64/RH 54% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 2, 2019 Author Share Posted May 2, 2019 Back door front working its way through, temp down to 64 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 2, 2019 Author Share Posted May 2, 2019 Not sure I completely agree with this. https://www.nj.com/news/2019/05/nj-weather-early-summer-forecast-is-looking-bright-hot-and-not-too-wet.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=njcom_sf&utm_content=nj_facebook_njcom&fbclid=IwAR0ydY49NDQLbKFPJuuFmRwrbV_gzDINWH-qIl28XPAzCT1FxXtJVvge1Yo&fbclid=IwAR15sylp-RJKKECr8ycRLarIv_K9kL05DpWI_Xvpkwlm6m8D3R8Av7h_hn8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 ^^ Drier pretty please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 Topped out at 82 yesterday, which was the warmest of the year here to date. Currently 51 and misty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 15 hours ago, RedSky said: ^^ Drier pretty please The drier thing prediction seems a little strange?? Opposite from you, rain=clouds=cooler temps for the most part....give me rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 ECM day 10. Strange weather pattern if you ask me as we maintain a look into mid month absent of high heat yet when you tabulate temperatures it averages above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 Status report Friday May 3rd for the forecast very wet weak it's Friday and still no measurable precipitation! Not only that it could just shake out that it doesn't rain until Saturday night/Sunday when it was forecast to be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 Took all day to move but I think the warm front finally popped and flew north of here and the sun just peaked out here around 4 pm. It stayed in the 50s until about 2pm when it finally cracked 60. Currently 65 now with the sun in/out between breaks in the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted May 4, 2019 Share Posted May 4, 2019 That line/cell blowing up over northern VA looks pretty juicy, even after losing diurnal heat. Highly convective with lots of lightening. I think I might be telling mom to put the horses in tonight, since all it takes in one loud crack to drive them crazy. And crazy horses in a storm usually means busted stuff and hurt horses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted May 4, 2019 Share Posted May 4, 2019 Rain...awesome! Another Saturday I can't get out to mow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 4, 2019 Share Posted May 4, 2019 Still no rain imby, just a foggy drizzle one night during the week. New grass too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted May 4, 2019 Share Posted May 4, 2019 2 hours ago, JTA66 said: Rain...awesome! Another Saturday I can't get out to mow. You'll need a hay baler soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted May 4, 2019 Share Posted May 4, 2019 58 minutes ago, RedSky said: Still no rain imby, just a foggy drizzle one night during the week. New grass too. For all the rain chances during the week, there were a lot of really nice days here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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