janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 instead of small dead threads in multiple subforms....since the main focus is the mid south so I started this "event" thread here... AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST SAT MAR 09 2019 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. DAMAGING GUSTS, TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ALL ARE POSSIBLE. ..SYNOPSIS IN MID/UPPER LEVELS A PROGRESSIVE, WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFYING, POSITIVELY TILTED SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN CA AND PACIFIC WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW APPARENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO WEST-CENTRAL TX -- WILL BE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE THIS PERIOD. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD BY 00Z TO NEAR AN AXIS FROM JMS-CID-STL-JBR. BY 12Z, A CLOSED 500-MB LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE NORTHWEST LIMB OF THE TROUGH, OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MI, NEARLY STACKED WITH AN OCCLUDED SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI. AT THE SURFACE, 11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL KS, WITH OCCLUDED FRONT DIFFUSELY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NORTH-CENTRAL OK, AND COLD FRONT ARCHING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND WEST-CENTRAL TX, OVERTAKING A PRE-EXISTING DRYLINE. A WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OK, SOUTH-CENTRAL AR, TO EXTREME NORTHERN MS NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN IA IN OCCLUDED FORM AROUND 00Z, THEN PROCEED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z TO NORTHERN LOWER MI. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARC FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IN ACROSS EASTERN TN TO THE MID/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN BY 00Z. BY 12Z, THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, CENTRAL MS, TO NEAR THE MID/UPPER TX COAST. THE TX SEGMENT SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY BY THEN. MEANWHILE THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS, WITH POOR DEFINITION IN AND NEAR AREAS OF CONVECTION. ..NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO OZARKS AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS A BELT OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING FROM THE WESTERN/CENTRAL OZARKS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OK TO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/ NORTHEAST TX. FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY, REFER TO SPC WATCHES AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FROM THERE EASTWARD. THE INITIAL BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY, WITH SOME BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF LA/MS, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MESSY, MIXED MODES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY -- MAINLY LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THIS CONVECTION WILL OFFER A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND SPORADIC HAIL, AS WELL AS TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE CAPE-SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE IN ITS INFLOW REGION, WHILE MARGINAL ON THE BUOYANCY SIDE, WILL EXHIBIT STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR. A FEW SHORTER-TERM/CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE TEMPORARY WEAKENING WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE MID-SOUTH NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN EARLY AFTERNOON, ASSOCIATED WITH A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN INFLOW-LAYER BUOYANCY, BEFORE AGAIN STRENGTHENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND REMAINING SURFACE DIABATIC HEATING. HOWEVER, THIS SIGNAL IS NEITHER STRONG NOR LARGE ENOUGH TO DELINEATE ANY DIFFERENCES IN BROADER-SCALE AREAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. FARTHER EAST, AS BUOYANCY INCREASES SOMEWHAT, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY BENEATH A 60-80-KT LLJ, ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGH-END SRH FOR NON-TROPICAL SYSTEMS (E.G., EFFECTIVE SRH 500-900 J/KG AND 0-1-KM LAYER SRH VALUES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 500 J/KG) -- AMIDST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE SOUTHWARD. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PARAMETER SPACE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES, THOUGH CONCERNS OVER STORM MODE CAST SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE THREAT BEYOND LEVELS CURRENTLY DEPICTED. THE WARM SECTOR WILL NARROW AND BECOME MORE PRECIP-CONTAMINATED WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT FROM THE MID-SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS, BUT STILL SHOULD RETAIN ENOUGH CAPE (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG IN POCKETS) TO SUPPORT SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS THERE. FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, ACTIVITY WILL START TO OUTPACE THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA, WHILE DEEP-LAYER LIFT DIMINISHES IN THE SOUTH WITH THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AWAY FROM THE REGION. MEANWHILE, DIABATIC SURFACE COOLING WILL REDUCE BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY GRADUALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES, EVEN AMIDST CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AS SUCH, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECLINE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE EVENING ONWARD. ..EDWARDS/GLEASON.. 03/09/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 The HRRR almost looks like it wants to break the main line up into cells later..... also the storms n AR may hold the Warm front (or secondary warm front) up and keep winds backed over TN plus any cells that develop ahead of line..(IE the ones near Memphis) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Checking in, looks to be a busy day with multiple hazards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 AM CST SAT MAR 09 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 091545Z - 091815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS EASTERN AR AND NOW INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND WESTERN KY, WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES. WHILE INSTABILITY IS WEAK, A LINE OF STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER AR, AND ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER VORTICITY MAX, MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR, BUT EXCESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES AND FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE LIFT MAY MITIGATE THIS. SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LINE WILL MOVE SLOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN AR INTO MS, BUT HERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER, AND HODOGRAPHS WILL CLEARLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 Little Rock ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 954 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 1030 AM CST. * AT 954 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WEST LITTLE ROCK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 cells rotating in the ARLATX REGION NOW ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1014 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 1100 AM CST. * AT 1013 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ATLANTA, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 STORMS BREAKING UP INTO DISCRETE CELLS IN CENTRAL AR ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1014 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 1100 AM CST. * AT 1013 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ATLANTA, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 strong rotation on the AR storm near KEO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 80/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 80/50 tor probs on the Tornado Watch issued for AR/TN/MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 That's a pretty interesting cell north of Shreveport with a new tornado warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 @NWSShreveport Follow Follow @NWSShreveport More Tornado reported on Mira Myrtis Road west of Interstate 49. Moving east at 45 mph. Take care now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CST SAT MAR 09 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 12... VALID 091659Z - 091900Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 12 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, AND PARTS OF THE SEVERE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO TORNADO. DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHWEST LA ALONG A COLD FRONT. WHILE MIXED STORM MODES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH PERIODIC STRONG ROTATION. GIVEN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SRH OVER 500 M2/S2 AND AREAS OF HEATING, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO WINDS VEERING WITH A TORNADO, HAIL, OR SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT. ----- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 14 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS EXTREME NORTHERN LOUISIANA * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1105 AM UNTIL 300 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE EMERGED WITHIN THE BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING THROUGH THE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS NEAR THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANY ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 AFAYETTE AR-BOSSIER LA- 1111 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL BOSSIER PARISHES... AT 1055 AM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED WITH THIS STORM NEAR HOSSTON. A SECOND AREA OF ROTATION HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTHEAST OF PLAIN DEALING, OR 17 MILES WEST OF SPRINGHILL, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Lots of junk storms in front of main threat, wondering what that will cause or possible effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Lots of junk storms in front of main threat, wondering what that will cause or possible effects. yeah...there are interesting storms moving onto NE AR but that old line to the south is interfering with instability and inflow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Exactly, wants to bow out it seems...but ones to watch are north like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Noon central time: Differential heating boundary is evident in North Mississippi, northwest Alabama, noted by 70s temps and 60s dews south and thicker clouds north. This is south of the synoptic WF which is in Kentucky. The Miss/Bama boundary should lift to the Tennessee border, perhaps into West Tenn. As the Arkansas front/dry line approaches, it should create intersecting boundaries, Low level convergence is forecast to increase in MS/AL/TN when the Arkansas front approaches. Conceptual and some numerical models have slightly higher storm relative helicity near the lifting MS/AL boundary. SPC and some CAMs have started to highlight this more southern boundary intersection. Compared to the Kentucky triple point, storms should move slower in the Mid South, esp down in Mississippi. Upper winds are strong both areas, but not quite as nuts strong South. Storms are a mess in the Delta right now. We'll see if the line breaks up a bit into Mississippi and Alabama later this afternoon. We can do without human impacts either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Those N. Ark storms really have look if close to being first to produce, will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Those N. Ark storms really have look if close to being first to produce, will see what happens. 2 confirmed earlier..one in AR and one in LA.. those cells you refer too are lacking instability..LLJ increasing though to 80-90 KTS! by 21z near them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Just joining the discussion after attending a business meeting earlier today. Thank you Janet for starting this thread in the Tennessee Valley subforum. SPC was thinking of a possible lull early this afternoon once the first wave of storms moves ne and that differential heating boundary can serve to become a focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Yeah, only 1230 long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Must say though, even the N. Ark storms are struggling...kind of messy convection in last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Starting to think messy storm mode iw going to rule the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Keep an eye on east central MO as well as northern MS. Clearing has happened behind the initial line of storms and the area is closer to the surface low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Keep an eye on east central MO as well as northern MS. Clearing has happened behind the initial line of storms and the area is closer to the surface low pressure. Indeed, just as I posted messy storm modes N. Mississippi started looking interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 15 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 155 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 900 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS, SOME WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD FROM LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHER SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Couple discreet cells west of ST Louis riding the warm front intensifying. Getting my first thunder of the year here at 36 degrees lol. Damn inversion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2019 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING, FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA, IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ..20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE CONSIDERABLE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE, LARGELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUING PROGRESSION OF SYNOPTIC AND SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE BASE OF THE RAPIDLY MOVING NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH, NOW APPROACHING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PIVOTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ALLEGHENY PLATEAU REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES, STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE CYCLONE'S WARM SECTOR, NOW GENERALLY CONFINED TO A PLUME OF MOIST RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTER MIGRATES FROM NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION, THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER BY THIS EVENING, IN THE WAKE OF THE EXTENSIVE ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS WILL BECOME SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR REMAINS UNCERTAIN, PARTICULARLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL NOW SEEMS INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS IS ON THE SOUTHERN-MOST PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING, WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WHICH ARE BECOMING VERY LARGE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED. THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS WHICH MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES, A COUPLE PERHAPS STRONG. FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS REGION, PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 172. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 This is supposedly the Arkansas tornado from earlier. Doesn't "look" super violent bt fairly nice wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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