March 8th Light Snow

[LP08]

So I figured I would break off the Friday deal for light snow through the area.  6z Icon looks good for a period of snow into the evening and the 6z Euro just had the most wintry run for this event that the euro has had.  I know it won’t be a huge deal but snow is snow!

[MDstorm]

18 minutes ago, LP08 said:

So I figured I would break off the Friday deal for light snow through the area.  6z Icon looks good for a period of snow into the evening and the 6z Euro just had the most wintry run for this event that the euro has had.  I know it won’t be a huge deal but snow is snow!

I might get more snow from this than this past weekend's disaster.

[BristowWx]

I'm all in.  its do or die for final flakes.  I didn't get more than 10 f-ing flakes from last weekend so lets end EST with a bang!

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Just now, BristowWx said:

I'm all in.  its do or die for final flakes.  I didn't get more than 10 f-ing flakes from last weekend so lets end EST with a bang!

We'll probably get another one in late March. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Pretty nice setup actually on the 12z NAM

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

NAM doesn't look bad

 

[LP08]

Obviously this doesn't have a ton of upside but I could see the favored areas adding a 1-3.  A lot will depending on timing due to the surface being near freezing for us near the cities.  A good chance for @nj2va to head to Garrett county for more skiing!

[high risk]

 

10 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

NAM doesn't look bad

 

 

 

     agreed.   nice thump of afternoon snow for areas north of DC with temps in the mid 30s falling to lower 30s.

 

[StantonParkHoya]

This thing is DOA for the DC folks. Mid-day, nearly mid-March, sun angle at a preposterous level. No chance for flakes.

[Inthepines]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

This thing is DOA for the DC folks. Mid-day, nearly mid-March, sun angle at a preposterous level. No chance for flakes.

Doubt it will amount to much but DC will def see some flakes

[LP08]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

This thing is DOA for the DC folks. Mid-day, nearly mid-March, sun angle at a preposterous level. No chance for flakes.

Flakes or accumulation?  I agree that it will be tough near the cities for anything other than some snow tv and mulch bed dustings but snow looks like it will fall on most guidance.  It's cold enough up top.  

[Fozz]

If I can get enough work done today and tomorrow, I'm going to try heading to Canaan Valley on Friday. It looks to be an interesting event up there.

@jonjon what are your thoughts?

[EastCoast NPZ]

Unless this falls after 5pm, dont give a damn about it.  6 hours of often good rates on Sunday during the day amounted to absolutely zilch.  

[peribonca]

The little upside I can see is that the NAM wants to pop a little coastal from it. Enhancement from the ocean would be a nice plus.  Reminds me of that 9 hour light snow event we had in January

[LP08]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Unless this falls after 5pm, dont give a damn about it.  6 hours of often good rates on Sunday during the day amounted to absolutely zilch.  

I thought I read you had almost 2" before you flipped to rain?  Anyway, ICON looks similar to 6z with light snow starting in the 1-3pm ish timeframe last through the evening.  Again, I want to emphasize that I don't think this will amount to much but I do think the favored areas will have a pretty snowy day Friday.  One thing I like is that Friday morning we should be in the mid 20's.  Beats getting to the 40's prior to any precip.

[nj2va]

43 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Obviously this doesn't have a ton of upside but I could see the favored areas adding a 1-3.  A lot will depending on timing due to the surface being near freezing for us near the cities.  A good chance for @nj2va to head to Garrett county for more skiing!

I know, I'd totally go up Thursday night but I'm heading to Nashville tomorrow for the weekend for a friend's birthday.  Garrett and Canaan (especially) will do well with this.  3k drops 0.5"+ at Canaan and 0.3"+ in Garrett County.

Garrett got a few inches already this week (after the Sunday storm which dropped 6") so it really will be a perfect weekend for skiing there.

[EastCoast NPZ]

10 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I thought I read you had almost 2" before you flipped to rain?  Anyway, ICON looks similar to 6z with light snow starting in the 1-3pm ish timeframe last through the evening.  Again, I want to emphasize that I don't think this will amount to much but I do think the favored areas will have a pretty snowy day Friday.  One thing I like is that Friday morning we should be in the mid 20's.  Beats getting to the 40's prior to any precip.

That was after dusk.  Nothing accumulated outside of dustings in the grass, mulch, and shaded spots.

[Deer Whisperer]

Can we get this pinned? Nothing better to pin right now

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Unless this falls after 5pm, dont give a damn about it.  6 hours of often good rates on Sunday during the day amounted to absolutely zilch.  

Much colder lead into day will help some as the surface is much colder. That being said, super minimal event.. If you want to call it an event 

[high risk]

     Lots of talk about the light snow not being able to stick and references to the struggles of last Sunday, but this isn't a Sunday redux.    1)    Air and ground temps going in to this storm are much colder    2)  it's not necessarily a light snow event - if you look at the NAM3 in particular, it's mostly a 2hr burst of steadier snow that will rapidly cool the low levels

     Don't get me wrong, it's still a weak, fast-moving system, and DC and points south will struggle to get accumulation no matter what, especially if the GFS is right getting us to the low 40s.   But north of DC could get a quick 1-2" if the NAM3 idea of limited heating prior to onset and some short-lived heavier rates is correct.

[LP08]

Euro not as good as 6z for those close in but wetter out west.

[jonjon]

3 hours ago, Fozz said:

If I can get enough work done today and tomorrow, I'm going to try heading to Canaan Valley on Friday. It looks to be an interesting event up there.

@jonjon what are your thoughts?

I have to admit I haven't looked at it too closely as I've become despondent from the worst winter we've had since I moved here in 2003.  I suppose we'll crack 100", but not by much.

My gut tells me we may see a few wet inches of snow on Friday, and we do have a good amount on the ground, so it should be a winter wonderland on Friday, at least.  But then meltsville cometh on Saturday . . .

[Fozz]

5 minutes ago, jonjon said:

I have to admit I haven't looked at it too closely as I've become despondent from the worst winter we've had since I moved here in 2003.  I suppose we'll crack 100", but not by much.

My gut tells me we may see a few wet inches of snow on Friday, and we do have a good amount on the ground, so it should be a winter wonderland on Friday, at least.  But then meltsville cometh on Saturday . . .

Sounds good enough for me. Hope to see at least 4-6", which the 3k NAM is suggesting. Saturday morning will probably have some very nice views, but once the melting begins, I'm headed back home.

On another note, I'm surprised it's been so bad out your way, especially since the I-81 crowd has done very well this year.

[Ji]

this might end up being our best March event this year lol

[Ji]

Im already at 30 but i hope this puts @leesburg 04 at 30

[Inthepines]

8 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Sounds good enough for me. Hope to see at least 4-6", which the 3k NAM is suggesting. Saturday morning will probably have some very nice views, but once the melting begins, I'm headed back home.

On another note, I'm surprised it's been so bad out your way, especially since the I-81 crowd has done very well this year.

The upslope snow machine has been largely silent this year. Based on my time living out there I’d say 70-80 percent of the average annual snowfall comes from upslope.

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, Inthepines said:

The upslope snow machine has been largely silent this year. Based on my time living out there I’d say 70-80 percent of the average annual snowfall comes from upslope.

That kinda sucks. Is it the lack of northwest winds in a cold airmass that's been screwing them over?

[Inthepines]

Yep! It’s really weird and excessively difficult to predict. The northwest winds behind a departing coastal storm are moist and primed for upslope. With the distinct lack of any coastal storms, the northwest winds we’ve had have been mostly dry making for a reallly meager snowfall year.

[jonjon]

8 minutes ago, Fozz said:

That kinda sucks. Is it the lack of northwest winds in a cold airmass that's been screwing them over?

Yeah, these storms that depend on CAD benefit those just to our east on the other side of the Potomac Highlands.  A lot of times we are raining and just 15-20 miles east and northeast of us is piling up the snow.  We get hurt by quick warm air invasion from the west whenever a storm doesn't track right under us.  But they don't get the upslope or truly elevation dependent storms (the elevation dependent storms usually only occur in the early or late season).

 

So yes, the lack of consistent northwest flow has not only cost us this year, but it seems like the last few (since 13/14) have had this problem.  Clippers are our best friend and they have been lacking for  quite a while.  I'm always looking for the clipper pattern to come around!

[Fozz]

10 minutes ago, jonjon said:

Yeah, these storms that depend on CAD benefit those just to our east on the other side of the Potomac Highlands.  A lot of times we are raining and just 15-20 miles east and northeast of us is piling up the snow.  We get hurt by quick warm air invasion from the west whenever a storm doesn't track right under us.  But they don't get the upslope or truly elevation dependent storms (the elevation dependent storms usually only occur in the early or late season).

 

So yes, the lack of consistent northwest flow has not only cost us this year, but it seems like the last few (since 13/14) have had this problem.  Clippers are our best friend and they have been lacking for  quite a while.  I'm always looking for the clipper pattern to come around!

Last month had several of those CAD events and I recall them screwing you over with warm air even while it was snowing here in the Piedmont. But this one looks like it should track underneath and provide some nice upslope. 3k NAM has some solid ratios too.