Indystorm Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 PAH already talking about strong to svr storms for Sat. in their CWA. ERTAF has an above average outlook for tornadoes with medium confidence for their second week beginning March 10-16 extending up to the Ohio River valley and far southern IL. With a second system on GFS for midweek things could get active even this far north if the low deepens and takes on a strong negative tilt to let the WF surge northward. Ryan at KIND thinks the season could be a fairly active one if the current pattern persists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern stream Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 Once deeper into April and May, these neg tilt troughs and intense low pressures to our NW would spell trouble forsure. Only thing I can think we've been missing is the instability aspect for the OH valley. Kinematics have definately been there. Still 4-5 days out, but this system looks to be lacking in the instability department as well, similar to the last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 That's certainly a deep low being forecast by the models ATM, GFS down into the 970's as it cuts through IA/WI. While instability is currently lacking as forecast atm, SRH seems pegged and aligned and as Southern said Kinematics are there if can overcome the shear. I'd like to see it slow down some, dig a little farther in the plains and get a little more time with a southerly surface flow from the gulf, currently models are showing cool E/SE flow up to and inside 24hrs It should be coming onshore tomorrow so we'll see where and get a better feel for the strength. Regardless up here as Indy said it could very well get interesting in far southern parts of the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 6, 2019 Author Share Posted March 6, 2019 The increased sunshine over AL and GA certainly helped raise CAPE over a 1000 compared to areas farther west in the recent Southeast outbreak. Instability is always an issue in early spring season storms, particularly this far north in the Ohio Valley. But other parameters being favorable I tend to give helicity and high dew point the cutting edge in tornado production. I do think areas of the South will be at risk once again. We'll just have to see how far north the svr storms will extend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 6, 2019 Author Share Posted March 6, 2019 I'm now wondering whether the Sat. system will prime the pump so to speak wrt better moisture getting into the Ohio Valley for the Tues/Wed system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Yeah the midweek system seems to have better "prep" so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern stream Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 NAM and GFS both increasing CAPE across west KY for the Sat/Sun system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern stream Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Thoughts anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 8, 2019 Author Share Posted March 8, 2019 Don't know if this is just the NAM being the NAM or if there is any real legitimacy to it. But I will keep watching the PAH and EVV areas on Sat. for sure. Depends on if storms can play that WF. That CAPE and helicity are both increasing though. We'll see if it holds in future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 8, 2019 Author Share Posted March 8, 2019 This evening's NAM 3k shows surface CAPE increasing to over 800 j/kg in sw iN, increasing helicity, and sig tor approaching 2 sw into western KY. Getting into the warm sector with quite the temp contrast between EVV and IND by OOz. Will need to bear watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern stream Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 Correct me if wrong, but I think the slight needs to be pulled to atleast the I64 corridor on the D2. *IF* this instabiltity progged verifies, we have the stronger dynamics on our side compared to farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 8, 2019 Author Share Posted March 8, 2019 Will be interesting to see what SPC thinks. Yes, the kinematics/dynamics are stronger farther north, but instability is always the fly in the ointment at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 Theta-E keeps nudging North. It won't take a lot of increase in instability to maybe get some things going in the far southern parts of the sub. The window of time may be fairly short..... NAM sounding around EVV late tomorrow afternoon... Interesting UH map from 12Z 3K NAM. HRRR very similar..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 8, 2019 Author Share Posted March 8, 2019 Enhanced shifted northward in the Mississippi Valley to now include PAH and far southern tip of IL with 30% hatched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 8, 2019 Author Share Posted March 8, 2019 After initial storms move through the area, 12z WRF-ARW shows an intense supercell developing at 20z from se MO northeastward to Cairo, PAH, EVV and along the Ohio River Valley until it lines out around 00z. Something to surely be concerned about if this model is correct. Outside of this sub there is also a significant cell in the Tunica MS region moving ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern stream Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 Those helicities are a big problem if something like that were to be around at the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 HRRR has been consistent in bringing a bit of a TOR threat into central IL along the northern section of the cold front close to the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 New Day one has enhanced 10% hatched tor from far southern IL to ne MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern stream Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 This will likely not be a large scale major event in the OH valley or perhaps anywhere, but isolated Sig events still look quite possible.. No matter how you put it, this is the most significant threat we have had in a good while for the southern portions of this sub. Surprised there is not more activity on the thread. Whether or not things remain cellular to the I65 corridor in KY, there should at the least be a decent damaging wind threat with the amount of dynamics we have. I will take a standard slight risk over 42 and rain. Hypothetically....Even if there is say only 1 EF2 out of this event, it may not seem like much on a larger scale but the story changes if that happens to be in your back yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 8 hours ago, Southern stream said: Surprised there is not more activity on the thread. Whether or not things remain cellular to the I65 corridor in KY, there should at the least be a decent damaging wind threat with the amount of dynamics we have. I will take a standard slight risk over 42 and rain. Hypothetically....Even if there is say only 1 EF2 out of this event, it may not seem like much on a larger scale but the story changes if that happens to be in your back yard. the event will be over multple subforms ..one of the drawbacks of subforms is that seere weather outbreaks often cover multiple subforms and it chaotic to keep track of everything I started an "event thread" here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 Aside from northern MS area I would watch east central MO from Jeff City east to Illinois where clearing has happened behind the initial line of storms and the area is closer to the surface low itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 Meso discussion out for possible watch for southern IL along WF with pressure falls and clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 May not be severe but a nice little line moving through central IN. I'm ready to kick off the chase season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 10, 2019 Author Share Posted March 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: May not be severe but a nice little line moving through central IN. I'm ready to kick off the chase season Portents of things to come. I shall remember today by having a t storm and 36 degrees early this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 25 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: May not be severe but a nice little line moving through central IN. I'm ready to kick off the chase season A little bit of lightning. A little bit of thunder. A little bit of sideways rain. A nice way to start off the season. So far 1.30" in my tippy bucket. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 42 minutes ago, bowtie` said: A little bit of lightning. A little bit of thunder. A little bit of sideways rain. A nice way to start off the season. So far 1.30" in my tippy bucket. Same up here. I don't realize how much I enjoy listening to the rumbles until I haven't heard any for awhile. Had one loud one that seemed to roar for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 I must confess, I went out and "chased" that little line. First gust front, nice little light show and some pea sized hail mixed in! Man if we can some systems this dynamic in early spring with 60 to 70 degree surface temps woohoo! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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