MNstorms Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 This system looks almost exactly the same as the big winter storm last month. Another snowfall to add to spring flooding concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 GFS consistently north and Euro consistently south. GFS did decent with this current system. Should be in NAM's long range tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 GFS consistently north and Euro consistently south. GFS did decent with this current system. Should be in NAM's long range tomorrow Pretty sure this is for the second system (weekend), which is a rainer for all but far NW sub-forum.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Pretty sure this is for the second system (weekend), which is a rainer for all but far NW sub-forum. . Oops you're right. I was talking about the Thurs system. Yea weekend storm definitely looks like a rainer. Possible thunderstorms to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Have already conceded frozen precip potential with this system. The big neg though is the fact that it looks like another cold rainer, as opposed to meaningful convective potential. Lack of snow potential, and lack of even marginal convection makes this a benign time-wasting meh of a system. Hopefully something of interest follows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Have already conceded frozen precip potential with this system. The big neg though is the fact that it looks like another cold rainer, as opposed to meaningful convective potential. Lack of snow potential, and lack of even marginal convection makes this a benign time-wasting meh of a system. Hopefully something of interest follows. I wouldn't concede anything yet, though I'm not hugely optimistic. All it would take is for the northern stream wave over the Canadian Prairies to be a little quicker (which is what the GFS was showing about 48 hours ago), less phasing, and you get a bowling ball storm instead with snow/mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 The german model (ICON) has continued to be the furthest south (and coldest) with this system and still shows significant ice storm potential for much of eastern Iowa. That could possibly change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 The UK is also showing a farther south, frozen-precip-in-Iowa scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Most models at the moment have the low traveling through Iowa this weekend. The UKMET and ICON are the models that have the system way south, much weaker and slower arrival time (aka the models that paint a significant ice storm for Iowa). EDIT: Navgem takes the low through Chicago, almost identical to the ICON. Not as weak but I would imagine an icy scenario for Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted March 4, 2019 Author Share Posted March 4, 2019 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 Yep looks like a northern MN/WI special at this point. Over the weekend the GFS raised my eyebrows a bit with a swath of 6"-12" going right over the IA/MN border, across southern WI, and central/southern lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted March 5, 2019 Author Share Posted March 5, 2019 GFS has been trending northward as the CMC has been in the same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 It’s GFS v Euro for the twin cities metro at this point. Really don’t want to see any liquid precip on top of all this snowpack. We need a slow melt. Going to be a fun storm to track this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockwiz Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 I want another foot. Bring it on. 30-35 inches of snow depth would be something I really haven't lived through to this point. Spring and warm weather are for suckers. We'll get er all melted by June. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 I'm rooting for rain which looks good at this point, ready for spring, and 3 feet of snow is going to take a while to melt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 GFS taking a step southeast towards the Euro and throwing down 12- 13” imby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted March 6, 2019 Author Share Posted March 6, 2019 38 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: GFS taking a step southeast towards the Euro and throwing down 12- 13” imby. Definitely like the Euro. Same path as the last run but is colder farther south. I kinda want snow but this and the system after will make us have 8'' of water in the snow. Hell of a snowmelt would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Cold rain/dry slot/wind/flurries here with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 8 hours ago, Minnesota_storms said: Definitely like the Euro. Same path as the last run but is colder farther south. I kinda want snow but this and the system after will make us have 8'' of water in the snow. Hell of a snowmelt would happen. Spring flood threat is going to be extreme around here. I fully expect soggy ground well into June....looking likely we will stay all or mostly frozen precip for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 12Z GFS trended SE and weaker with the low. Bring the rain snow line into southern Wisconsin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Looks like 12Z NAM want to blitz us with ZR. Fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 17 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Looks like 12Z NAM want to blitz us with ZR. Fun times. Same here. 3 hours of ZR before changeover to snow. Likely at least a couple tenths of an inch of ice for here, plus there will be some wind which will mean some power problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Remember when this was a guaranteed all-rainer for S. WI/IA/IL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 12 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Remember when this was a guaranteed all-rainer for S. WI/IA/IL? Yes but then the models went south and weaker. If they go even further south then it's major ice storm territory. The NAM has a big area of .50+ ice accumulation for much of Iowa, although much of that would be runoff. And to add insult to injury, yet another storm system on Tuesday/Wednesday. Looks to be mostly a rainer for this subforum but that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 42 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Looks like 12Z NAM want to blitz us with ZR. Fun times. I'm fine with not having ZR thank you very much NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted March 6, 2019 Author Share Posted March 6, 2019 NAM with heavy totals and doesn't even have the snow ending. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 This looks like one of those (rather common) scenarios where, counterintuitively, a (relatively) weaker system leads to higher impact wx. There seems to be a point, usually around 990mb, where except in rare cases further deepening does more harm than good if you want to see winter and/or severe wx (at least when the SLP is still centered west of the MS river). Those "inland hurricanes" that are down in the low 980s or below typically just bring blustery cold rain to locations not on the Lakes, and the big time snow occurs in the northern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Remember when this was a guaranteed all-rainer for S. WI/IA/IL? It's still a guaranteed rainer for IL, minus backside flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 A low pressure cutting through Chicago? Who woulda thunk it?!? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted March 7, 2019 Author Share Posted March 7, 2019 3K coming into picture. Freezing rain a hazard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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