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The Little Storm That Could - March 3/4


Spanks45
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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

There are some IC flashes about 100 miles S of LI right now. It's possible that's close enough to illuminate the clouds over RI too.

I'm looking due north though at the flash, and the flash coincided with a power outage... If it were caused by the lightning id have heard thunder surely? The electrical infrastructure in the us at large, and Newport in particular, is pretty bad, but even it doesn't fold to lightning 100s of miles away.

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6 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Is that what that was? I thought it was a power issue, mine was off for a second and the streetlamp blew, so I figured it was a transformer.

That’s possible. I saw two consecutive flashes and then a third about a minute or two later. Looked like it was coming from the south and I didn’t noticed power issues. But I haven’t seen anything since so I’m thinking you are right  

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1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

That makes sense. I assumed it was just upper level difluence but the directional circulation to it makes sense.

So hypothetically if the region of interest is in the left entrance, would the jet streak have the opposite (i.e. inhibiting effect) due to sinking the warmer/moist air on the equatorward side?

Well think of it this way, you are lifting cooler/moist air in the exit region. Sounds a lot like your cold conveyor right? So it's not a bad thing.

KUs are KUs because you couple the indirect circulation of the sub-tropical jet with the direct circulation of the polar jet. 

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3 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

I'm looking due north though at the flash, and the flash coincided with a power outage... If it were caused by the lightning id have heard thunder surely? The electrical infrastructure in the us at large, and Newport in particular, is pretty bad, but even it doesn't fold to lightning 100s of miles away.

I would lean towards power related, but I'm just saying it's not impossible. And the thunder is not a given, because snow and distance will muffle the sound. 

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7 minutes ago, GansettBay said:

That’s possible. I saw two consecutive flashes and then a third about a minute or two later. Looked like it was coming from the south and I didn’t noticed power issues. But I haven’t seen anything since so I’m thinking you are right  

I like the lightning explanation as some color for the story I tell my grandkids one day about that time I got 2 inches of slop while Cumberland jacked. 

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well think of it this way, you are lifting cooler/moist air in the exit region. Sounds a lot like your cold conveyor right? So it's not a bad thing.

KUs are KUs because you couple the indirect circulation of the sub-tropical jet with the direct circulation of the polar jet. 

Got it, thanks for the explanation

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15 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

0z HREF not backing down... and spots of 12"+ in that zone south of Boston to NW CT:

03_04_HREF_0z.jpg.ea9304c94309d66e6c20eb68f3b73c6f.jpg

That does look a little more jucy.  I wonder if there will be a 10-13" ribbon somewhere in there according to that model.  If so, it would go from a general direction from NW CT through Worcester to just north of Boston to Bedford MA. Just  to the south of Boston around Weymouth has  a little ocean enhancement.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I may crash until 4....but tough for me to sleep right now lol

Same lol... rates are relatively light now and guidance has really honed in with excellent consensus... there's not much uncertainty on what's to come so might be a good window to force a 2 hour nap

4z HRRR steady with the mix line, barely kisses PYM... that's in less than 5 hours so I think Boston area / south shore are good, Plymouth might briefly be a battleground

 

 

 

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