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The Little Storm That Could - March 3/4


Spanks45
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CODNEXLAB-2km-NY-rad-ani24-201903040340-

Watch the echoes down over NJ. See the speed and direction they are taking (right at the heart of SNE). 

700 mb front is probably not moving much, but 850 will tick NW some as the low approaches. But that precip over NJ will be slamming into a wall. That's the 40-50kt flags Will was pointing out yesterday. 

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Box 10pm AFD:

Presently, H9-7 frontogenesis / deformation coincident with high
radar returns over the Delmarva Peninsula into NJ while H7-6
frontogenesis was contributing to a SW-NE snow band over PA into
Upstate NY. These two element coinciding and colliding over S
New England as we move towards the morning hours beneath broader
diffluence aloft with the right rear quadrant of an H3 jet streak
aloft, concern of higher QPF values and snowfall amounts subsequent.
There are low probabilities within the HREF of +12" amounts over
E MA, while forecast model omega values within the dendritic growth
zone are notably stronger into the early morning hours on Monday,
values upwards of 30 microbars per second as low-level convergent
forcing is squeezed by upstream forcing yielded by mid-level
impulse energy sweeping through the base of the tropospheric
polar vortex, i.e., an arctic front.

But, as alluded to by the prior forecaster, there are some snow-
fall losses ongoing as 2m temperatures continue to cool with snow
onset, the column continues to moisten, dry air becomes less of a
concern ... altogether, initial issues with snowfall accumulation.

Opted to blend the latest high-res forecast with the prior. This
pushes a bigger area of 8 to 10 inches with localized heavier
amounts that could push slightly above 10 inches.
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Just took the dog out.  32.8,  and little over an inch so far.  Some of the heaviest (weight, not rate) snow I've see.  The trees and bushes are drooping so much with only an inch.  Can't imagine that we won't see widespread power outages around here once the heavy stuff starts.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Hadn't noted this before, mentioned on Box AFD... assisting lift is SNE being in RRQ of an H3 jet streak:

Right entrance is a direct circulation (i.e. warm air rising on the Equatorward side, cold air sinking on the polar side), so think WAA thump style. 

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Moderate to heavy now.  .5" of the wettest snow that exists. 

Luckily there is not much wind with this. Someone will get inches of this paste and limbs will snap anyway, though.

I'm glad I'm going to bed soon. Id prefer to remember things like this.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Hadn't noted this before, mentioned on Box AFD... assisting lift is SNE being in RRQ of an H3 jet streak:

 

Great source for upper level divergence to assist with the lifting. Another good source is the left exit region of jet streak, but that's not relevant to this event.

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2 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Is that what that was? I thought it was a power issue, mine was off for a second and the streetlamp blew, so I figured it was a transformer.

There are some IC flashes about 100 miles S of LI right now. It's possible that's close enough to illuminate the clouds over RI too.

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19 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Right entrance is a direct circulation (i.e. warm air rising on the Equatorward side, cold air sinking on the polar side), so think WAA thump style. 

That makes sense. I assumed it was just upper level difluence but the directional circulation to it makes sense.

So hypothetically if the region of interest is in the left entrance, would the jet streak have the opposite (i.e. inhibiting effect) due to sinking the warmer/moist air on the equatorward side?

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