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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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CAPE
CAPE

Shot of the storm approaching here from the end of my driveway. The rush of wind was impressive on the front end, and the power went out pretty quick. Just came back on after about an hour. Lots of tr

AmericanWxFreak
AmericanWxFreak
mappy
mappy

tis been a little busy  

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George BM

George BM

Posted
Posted 
SEL7
   0-CWZ000-010100-

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 547
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   115 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Connecticut
     District Of Columbia
     Delaware
     Massachusetts
     Eastern Maryland
     New Jersey
     Southeast New York
     Southeast Pennsylvania
     Rhode Island
     Northeast Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 115 PM
     until 900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
   afternoon within a warm/unstable air mass.  A few clusters of severe
   storms are expected to form, capable of locally damaging wind gusts.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
   statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south southeast
   of Washington DC to 25 miles north northwest of Boston MA. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
   cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   25030.

   ...Hart
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, yoda said:

STWatch in effect for I95 corridor and DCA/BWI metros until 9pm 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2019

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC013-047-059-061-099-137-153-177-179-600-610-683-685-010100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0547.190731T1715Z-190801T0100Z/

VA
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARLINGTON            CULPEPER            FAIRFAX
FAUQUIER             KING GEORGE         ORANGE
PRINCE WILLIAM       SPOTSYLVANIA        STAFFORD


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

FAIRFAX              FALLS CHURCH        MANASSAS
MANASSAS PARK

  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2019

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC003-005-009-011-015-017-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-041-510-
010100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0547.190731T1715Z-190801T0100Z/

MD
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL         BALTIMORE           CALVERT
CAROLINE             CECIL               CHARLES
HARFORD              HOWARD              KENT
MONTGOMERY           PRINCE GEORGES      QUEEN ANNE`S
ST. MARYS            TALBOT


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY
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batmanbrad

batmanbrad

Posted
Posted
Just now, dailylurker said:

Bump

Enhanced risk for tomorrow and it's crickets in here.

 

Guess they're all waiting for MOD risk upgrade?   Seriously, I agree - we don't get too many ENH risks (especially 1+ days in advance), this D2 outlook even mentions a TOR possibility if enough destabilization occurs.  Could be an interesting Tuesday.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, batmanbrad said:

 

Guess they're all waiting for MOD risk upgrade?   Seriously, I agree - we don't get too many ENH risks (especially 1+ days in advance), this D2 outlook even mentions a TOR possibility if enough destabilization occurs.  Could be an interesting Tuesday.

I didn't think that we usually saw that around here (I was just asking a little while ago about why we don't see "enhanced" that often!)

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

Not a surprise seeing the upgrade to Enhanced given the look on the models the past 2 days.

I am slightly interested, but these threats rarely amount to much more than a gust of wind, some T&L, and maybe some heavy rain, outside of a few isolated areas. Need a derecho in these parts for something widespread.

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not a surprise seeing the upgrade to Enhanced given the look on the models the past 2 days.

I am slightly interested, but these threats rarely amount to much more than a gust of wind, some T&L, and maybe some heavy rain, outside of a few isolated areas. Need a derecho in these parts for something widespread.

So you're saying that our "severe events" are usually way overhyped?

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mattie g said:

So you're saying that our "severe events" are usually way overhyped?

People forget the ENH is just the old 30%.  We average between 1 and 3 ENH a year and it's been pretty quite this year even compared to our usual quietness so I wonder if folks are just starved for some action.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Fun read 

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Potentially volatile weather setup for Tuesday as a moderately
strong, neutrally-tilted/convectively-induced shortwave and
vorticity maxima approach the region. Upstream convective
evolution over the Midwest and Ohio Valley will dictate the
extent of cloud cover and subsequent destabilization locally on
Tuesday (leftover mid/high clouds and possibly a few showers may
move into the region Tuesday morning, depending on how things
unfold upstream today).

Lapse rates in the mid levels are expected to be modest (no
residual EML or anything like that), so CAPE will be strongly
reliant upon 1) the moist airmass and 2) daytime heating. Even
modest heating is expected to result in 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, with
values of over 2000 J/kg most likely over the central Virginia
Piedmont which is least likely to see persistent/thicker cloud
cover on Tuesday. Attendant to the shortwave is a 850-500 hPa
speed max (35 kts at 850 hPa to 45 kts at 500 hPa). This is
expected to result in effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts,
sufficient for organized updrafts and even supercells given the
looping hodographs/backed low-level flow (southerly surface
winds, southwesterly 850 hPa winds, westerly 700-500 hPa winds).
The strongest mid-level flow is expected near the Mason-Dixon
line. If appreciable cloud cover persists between these two areas,
it is not unrealistic that a situation may arise in which convection
focuses in two corridors, one north of I-70 closer to better
synoptic forcing/lift and shear, and south of I-66 in the better
instability/thermodynamic environment. However, given the anomalous
flow/forcing aloft and at least modest instability, there appears to
be enough of a risk for most of the area to see at least scattered
instances of severe weather. The primary hazard appears to be
damaging winds, though a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out given low-
level shear (SRH 150-200). Some severe hail is possible in any more
persistent or discrete updrafts. Isolated instances of flooding are
also possible (see Hydrology section below for more).

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jewell2188

jewell2188

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

People forget the ENH is just the old 30%.  We average between 1 and 3 ENH a year and it's been pretty quite this year even compared to our usual quietness so I wonder if folks are just starved for some action.

AFD does mentions mid/high level clouds and maybe even some showers in the morning....we all know what that means in our area in terms of clearing out and maximizing day time heating. Typically never works in our favor lol

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
Just now, jewell2188 said:

AFD does mentions mid/high level clouds and maybe even some showers in the morning....we all know what that means in our area in terms of clearing out and maximizing day time heating. Typically never works in our favor lol

Yup.  D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts...destined for failure.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
Just now, jewell2188 said:

AFD does mentions mid/high level clouds and maybe even some showers in the morning....we all know what that means in our area in terms of clearing out and maximizing day time heating. Typically never works in our favor lol

 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yup.  D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts...destined for failure.

And we have seen it work before in our area :axe:

 

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
  • Author
Posted
14 minutes ago, yoda said:

@Kmlwx

SPC seems like they are going to go mod at 2000 OTLK across SE IA/IL/W IN for either wind and/or tor probs... 1630 has 10% hatched tor and 30% hatched wind... wonder if any of that will make it over to us tomorrow... 1730 SPC disco should be interesting

Would assume nothing will be changed until D1. 

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