2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[poolz1]

.53" for the week.  Would have been a shutout if not for a random overnight storm earlier in the week.  PA continues its streak... 

[dailylurker]

I'm standing in my neighbors barn looking across his field to my SE at a ok lightning show. It's raining lightly as the lightning seems to be fading. 

[NorthArlington101]

Failed on storms again though.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

4th day in a row for storms. 6.58” for the month so far.

[nw baltimore wx]

3 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

4th day in a row for storms. 6.58” for the month so far.

Wow. That's impressive. Just under 3" here for the month.

[adelphi_sky]

2.07 for the month here.  

[osfan24]

Incredible bust. Can't remember ever getting less from a four-day forecast of severe storms and flooding.

[SnowtoRain]

Nice, normal, summer thunderstorm, few flashes of lightning, a little wind, and 0.82" of rain.

[yoda]

Pouring rain here again 

[GramaxRefugee]

4th straight day of significant rainfall here. Today's the lowest at 0.21 (so far). Plenty humid.

[LP08]

13 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Failed on storms again though.

Knights of Columbus?  We are members there!

[NorthArlington101]

Knights of Columbus?  We are members there!

Hah, we’ve probably run into each other a lot. I’m there pretty much every day.

[MN Transplant]

More tree debris today from the synoptic wind than the week of "severe" weather.

[Kmlwx]

I don't see much severe risk upcoming. 

[George BM]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

I don't see much severe risk upcoming. 

While it definitely doesn't look like much atm I wouldn't completely sleep on Monday. With increasing cape and modest shear if a remnant MCV moves in from the west it could spark something. Again, it's definitely not much atm but something to watch... perhaps.

[JakkelWx]

Huge CAPE values over central OK right now, exceeding 7,000 J/kg in places.. I want that here

[Kmlwx]

3 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

Huge CAPE values over central OK right now, exceeding 7,000 J/kg in places.. I want that here

Hope for a wicked EML, good trigger, good timing and spectacular shear and you'll be very pleased. 

[yoda]

Some pretty nice soundings showing up on the 00z NAM tonight from 21z MON to 06z TUES

Pretty much last chance saloon for storms for next 7 to 10 days

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Looking at the Euro, nice derecho threat Days 7-8

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Looking at the Euro, nice derecho threat Days 7-8

Haven't looked yet - ring of fire?

[Kmlwx]

Things look good for some storms tomorrow PM. If the main line on the models was a bit faster we'd be in great shape. Seems most models have some cells out front and then a dying line around 02-04z

[Kmlwx]

Does seem we could go into a NW flow threat in a bit. That could make for some nice opportunity if things setup properly and timing works out. Won't hold my breath for now. 

[Kmlwx]

11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Does seem we could go into a NW flow threat in a bit. That could make for some nice opportunity if things setup properly and timing works out. Won't hold my breath for now. 

There hasn't been any associated increase on CIPS or anything yet. 

[yoda]

Tornado warning out in WV 

[yoda]

Hmmm... maybe?

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1238
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0617 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

   Areas affected...Virginia...Maryland...Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 242317Z - 250145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and hail will be possible across
   parts of Pennsylvania southward to Virginia this evening. Weather
   watch issuance can not be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a surface trough
   located from West Virginia southeastward into western Virginia with
   dewpoints ahead of the trough in lower 70s F. In response, a
   moderately unstable airmass is located from southern Pennsylvania
   into central and eastern Virginia where MLCAPE values range from
   1000 to 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms have developed in the
   central Appalachians along the western edge of the stronger
   instability. In addition to the instability, regional WSR-88D VWPS
   show moderate deep-layer shear with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 kt
   range. Although convective development will remain isolated, the
   environment should support a severe threat for a few more hours this
   evening. Wind damage and hail would be the primary threats.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 06/24/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

what county, do you know?

It was out in Grant and Hardy... but was canceled after rotation weakened

[NorthArlington101]

now i see the eastern panhandle ones.

these are from Kanawha County, WV—Charleston. this is outside the statehouse. it’s labeled as a tornado but i don’t think it is.

 

 

[mattie g]

Bring me the elusive golfball-sized hail.

[The Dude]

1 hour ago, wxtrix said:

now i see the eastern panhandle ones.

these are from Kanawha County, WV—Charleston. this is outside the statehouse. it’s labeled as a tornado but i don’t think it is.

 

Agreed.  Looks like a shelf cloud and some scud.  Still, cool pics!

[yoda]

Hmmm

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1105 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  West central Madison County in northwestern Virginia...
  Southeastern Rockingham County in western Virginia...
  South central Page County in northwestern Virginia...
  Central Greene County in central Virginia...

* Until 1145 PM EDT.

* At 1105 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles
  southeast of Massanutten, or 16 miles southeast of Harrisonburg,
  moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Elkton, Mcmullen, Mission Home, Swift Run, Lydia, Fletcher, Graves
  Mill, Jollett, Aylor, Haneytown, Saint George and Shady Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 7870 3855 7852 3843 7827 3825 7857
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 218DEG 23KT 3829 7862

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH