2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

Another day, another far off thunder closing the pool early. Hopefully it actually storms this time.

[JakkelWx]

32 minutes ago, high risk said:

    I see lots of giving up on today's storms, but the HRRR (and NAM nest) continue to blow up a lot of storms for the area over the next few hours as the forcing from the shortwave arrives, and boundaries become active.

Maybe a line will form an connect the southern storms with the northern ones. But then again that's just my weenie-ism talking.

[adelphi_sky]

That cell approaching Warrenton looks like it could grow big and nasty in the next 30 minutes. 

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, high risk said:

    I see lots of giving up on today's storms, but the HRRR (and NAM nest) continue to blow up a lot of storms for the area over the next few hours as the forcing from the shortwave arrives, and boundaries become active.

Some of the folks here are like my dad sometimes. "It's not gonna rain.. there is nothing showing on radar anywhere close!".

Ofc, he is not a weather hobbyist and does not understand concepts like surface convergence/upper level divergence, vorticity max, etc.

[yoda]

12 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

That cell approaching Warrenton looks like it could grow big and nasty in the next 30 minutes. 

Good call... now SVR warned

[NorthArlington101]

Small shelf cloud warning!

 

 

looking south

[jewell2188]

25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Small shelf cloud warning!

 

 

looking south

It’s a big rain producer! Drove through it as it was coming through Haymarket.

[MN Transplant]

No wind or thunder here, but that is a healthy rain coming down.

[CAPE]

Some moderate rain falling here now. As expected, the best stuff is south of DC, especially down in the tidewater of VA.

[adelphi_sky]

Today was awesome! .06 on the gauge for today with faint distant rumbles of thunder! Win!  Two more days left of potential severe? There better be basktball-sized hail on Thursday. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Watch canceled for entire SLGT area lol

[BlizzardNole]

Hope everyone is staying safe amid all the severe weather and flooding.  Remain vigilant!

[mattie g]

8 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Hope everyone is staying safe amid all the severe weather and flooding.  Remain vigilant!

Definitely localized flooding in this section of Fairfax County. Thanks for the thoughts and prayers 

[JakkelWx]

35 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Watch canceled for entire SLGT area lol

3rd bust in a row (last night had like 1 rumble of thunder btw) in my yard.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Another day without even a drop.  There is a storm firing 3 miles to my east right now.  Maybe I'll get to hear a rumble of distant thunder!

[dailylurker]

30 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Another day without even a drop.  There is a storm firing 3 miles to my east right now.  Maybe I'll get to hear a rumble of distant thunder!

I actually chuckled a little when I noticed that on radar a little bit ago lol. I'm watching what's going on out there for my area later on. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

33 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I actually chuckled a little when I noticed that on radar a little bit ago lol. I'm watching what's going on out there for my area later on. 

Wish you luck better than mine.

[NorthArlington101]

I could have sworn I saw a bit of rotation in the storm too. I actually took a video of it but it’s pretty cruddy. Maybe I saw my first legit rotation though...

[WEATHER53]

59 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

 

I could have sworn I saw a bit of rotation in the storm too. I actually took a video of it but it’s pretty cruddy. Maybe I saw my first legit rotation though...

 

Looks like a tube in there!

[fourseasons]

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Looks like a tube in there!

Looks the same to me.  Although I don't think it's over the bridge; it's a bit further back down the river.

[H2O]

every day I'm not feeling it has given me rain.  So I'm not feeling it today despite the 80% chance.  Thats just because it can't storm 3 days in a row IMBY.  It just can't.  

[mappy]

15 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

You're also more famous than me...so you're at a higher risk. If anybody wants to mess with me they won't do much damage to little old me. 

ha, i'm not famous, but thank you for the compliment!

40 minutes ago, H2O said:

every day I'm not feeling it has given me rain.  So I'm not feeling it today despite the 80% chance.  Thats just because it can't storm 3 days in a row IMBY.  It just can't.  

can you send it up my way? 

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

ha, i'm not famous, but thank you for the compliment!

can you send it up my way? 

maybe.  These things tend to be wishy washy so i can't guarantee my efforts will be successful

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

maybe.  These things tend to be wishy washy so i can't guarantee my efforts will be successful

what good are you  

[H2O]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

what good are you  

I provide and have provided years upon years of entertainment.  And sound yogurt advice.

 

I have made calls.  It will rain for you today.

[MN Transplant]

NAM nest keeps spitting out a nice supercell in the vicinity of DC on Thursday.  

[Kmlwx]

10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

NAM nest keeps spitting out a nice supercell in the vicinity of DC on Thursday.  

The SPC discussion is rather "meh" overall. It certainly doesn't look as robust as those one or two NAM runs. Seems like they might have been flukes...

[MN Transplant]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

The SPC discussion is rather "meh" overall. It certainly doesn't look as robust as those one or two NAM runs. Seems like they might have been flukes...

What, you don't like "poor lapse rates" and limited instability.  Tough to please

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

What, you don't like "poor lapse rates" and limited instability.  Tough to please

After some legit severe days around here I've been disappointed recently. Guess I can't complain after having two tornadoes in a weeks time frame go right by my apartment. 

[high risk]

        Would love to see better lapse rates tomorrow for sure, but there are still a number of things to like.        This is an anomalously strong June trough arriving at the right time of day.    (We did really well with good dynamics on June 2).     As a result, while the surface winds may be too weak or veered for widespread supercells, the overall wind profile is impressive, and the lift will be strong.     Most CAMs show full heating tomorrow with temps approaching 90.         There will be storms, and there is a good chance that at least some of them will be SVR.

        It's a SLGT day for sure, but in terms of what we need for ENH potential, the NAM nest mid-level temps are a bit cooler than the HRRR and would allow for more instability.    And the best wind fields will overspread our area more towards 23z,  so later initiation would be helpful - the low-level shear will really improve towards 00z if any storms are still around.