2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[yoda]

Yeah... we easily reached ConvT lol

[Kmlwx]

Radar is so boring right now. I hope Thursday goes bonkers. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Radar is so boring right now. I hope Thursday goes bonkers. 

Me too. Also, that was me on Reddit :p

[mappy]

did you find each other on a subreddit? i feel like thats hard to do with the amount of users, depending on subreddit

[high risk]

should be feeling the influence of that arriving shortwave over the next few hours, but as the MPD notes, the guidance really likes DC and points south (maybe we can say Rockville to Columbia and points south, based on HRRR trends?)  for the most coverage.    Maybe not looking so good for north-central MD.

[yoda]

7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Radar is so boring right now. I hope Thursday goes bonkers. 

If you read the AFD... you would see they said 4pm to 7pm for development 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

should be feeling the influence of that arriving shortwave over the next few hours, but as the MPD notes, the guidance really likes DC and points south (maybe we can say Rockville to Columbia and points south, based on HRRR trends?)  for the most coverage.    Maybe not looking so good for north-central MD.

so like yesterday -- everything initiates to my southeast and i get nary a drop to drink. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

did you find each other on a subreddit? i feel like thats hard to do with the amount of users, depending on subreddit

I did find him lol it happened in the lamest way possible since it is our local subreddit for Columbia MD but still, it was pretty funny

[adelphi_sky]

Looks like the Richmond area will be rockin again today. 

[JakkelWx]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

should be feeling the influence of that arriving shortwave over the next few hours, but as the MPD notes, the guidance really likes DC and points south (maybe we can say Rockville to Columbia and points south, based on HRRR trends?)  for the most coverage.    Maybe not looking so good for north-central MD.

Why's the SPC have the slight risk over the eastern - northeast areas if most of the guidance shows the southern areas getting hit?

 

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

did you find each other on a subreddit? i feel like thats hard to do with the amount of users, depending on subreddit

I should probably change my username on there...too easy to be doxxed. 

I figuratively pooped myself when I got a PM on reddit last night addressing me by name. 

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

I did find him lol it happened in the lamest way possible since it is our local subreddit for Columbia MD but still, it was pretty funny

Easily the most stalkerish thing that's happened to me on there since I joined years ago. I always try to be careful - especially posting stuff about my job in the sysadmin subreddit. High five on making me paranoid before bed last night. 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I should probably change my username on there...too easy to be doxxed. 

I figuratively pooped myself when I got a PM on reddit last night addressing me by name. 

thats why i dont bother hiding who i am most places. i'm pretty easy to find if someone wanted to "doxx" me. 

[high risk]

22 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Why's the SPC have the slight risk over the eastern - northeast areas if most of the guidance shows the southern areas getting hit?

 

             guidance has the southern areas getting hit with the greatest coverage of storms.    that has nothing to do with severe potential.    any storms to the northeast will be in a better environment for svr;  it's just the the best threat may be more towards PHL and NJ.

[JakkelWx]

7 minutes ago, high risk said:

             guidance has the southern areas getting hit with the greatest coverage of storms.    that has nothing to do with severe potential.    any storms to the northeast will be in a better environment for svr;  it's just the the best threat may be more towards PHL and NJ.

Guidance holding out quite nicely as numerous storms are popping to the south as expected. Seems like farther north has more discrete cell potential where the SLGT risk is. Literally nothing right now though.

[Kmlwx]

35 minutes ago, mappy said:

thats why i dont bother hiding who i am most places. i'm pretty easy to find if someone wanted to "doxx" me. 

You're also more famous than me...so you're at a higher risk. If anybody wants to mess with me they won't do much damage to little old me. 

[osfan24]

Looks like VA/NC border area will do well today LOL.

[aldie 22]

Bubble 

[RVASnowLover]

53 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Looks like the Richmond area will be rockin again today. 

We've gotten plenty of the rain but been awhile since we had a good, strong storm. Most of those have missed us to the north or south. Maybe we'll get one today. 

[jewell2188]

Doesn’t look promising right now. Radar is rather pathetic...at least we have filtered sunshine...makes the humidity bearable 

[dailylurker]

Radar is totally dead around the metro DC area. Looks like hrrr nailed it. The trash clouds around all day didn't help. Hopefully we see some activity pop locally. 

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Radar is totally dead around the metro DC area. Looks like hrrr nailed it. The trash clouds around all day didn't help. Hopefully we see some activity pop locally. 

I'm sitting at 88F.  I'm not so sure it is because of a lack of heating. I thought there were disturbances that would kick off storms? Perhaps whatever is at the VA/NC border is stealing all of the dynamics from our area? Or is that feature supposed to cycle through our area after 8pm tonight? It looks to be moving north. 

[yoda]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

If you read the AFD... you would see they said 4pm to 7pm for development 

 

[jewell2188]

Ugh an hour later and it’s still pathetic...I’m just saying. 

[yoda]

Louisa county cell looking intriguing 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Looks like a boundary lifting north from the cells near Manasass - could that help trigger something locally?

[yoda]

STW Spotsylvania county 

[yoda]

Big time VIL just north of Mineral... near 80 kg/m2 with def hail core

[high risk]

    I see lots of giving up on today's storms, but the HRRR (and NAM nest) continue to blow up a lot of storms for the area over the next few hours as the forcing from the shortwave arrives, and boundaries become active.

[AdamHLG]

It's starting to feel like winter waiting for these storms.  Just sayin.