2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[Pityflakes]

Storm just north of downtown dc seemed to get its act together in a hurry. 

[yoda]

Looks like something near Mount Rainier?  Or no?

[MN Transplant]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like something near Mount Rainier?  Or no?

Nothing screams to me on the velocity scans.

[high risk]

 

   had some impressive downburst winds here in the College Park area.

  

[yoda]

Looks like a hail core near Leonardtown

[mattie g]

58 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hrrr likes Baltimore - DC on south and east through evening for convection...and current radar concurs pretty much ...Just sprinkles in Westminster .

No. It’s lame. As lame as lame can be. Fail. Next.

[GramaxRefugee]

Just getting a reasonably noisy T-storm in Mitchellville.  Heavy rain, about 16:45L

[caviman2201]

interesting look just south of Glen Burnie on LWX and BWI's TDWR velocity scan... 

[yoda]

At 4:55 PM EDT, 2 W Callaway [St. Marys Co, MD] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HAIL of golf ball size (E1.75 INCH). SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL

[MN Transplant]

3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

interesting look just south of Glen Burnie on BWI's TDWR velocity scan... 

Yeah, that looks like a downburst.

Lots of boundaries sitting out there now.

[yoda]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Yeah, that looks like a downburst.

Lots of boundaries sitting out there now.

Fairfax county cell is sending out quite the outflow boundary right now

[Eskimo Joe]

Sounds like a few trees into houses in Columbia.  Likely a downburst.

[mattie g]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Sounds like a few trees into houses in Columbia.  Likely a downburst.

Lame

[JakkelWx]

Two garbage severe days in a row, managed to miss every storm except for a lame 15 minute golden shower

[yoda]

38 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Lame

Lol and now you have storms coming

[Maestrobjwa]

Any particular reason we don't see hail that often here in the city?

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Any particular reason we don't see hail that often here in the city?

It's a stats thing more than anything. Areas that DO receive hail are actually very isolated. It just seems like "every other place gets hail other than X location" because you're looking at a small geographic area. This is similar to why SPC forecasts are for "severe within 25mi of a point"

I would bet that if you plotted hail reports from a statistically relevant period - the areas within the city boundaries have a similar return period than other areas.  

TL;DR - Hail in unusual in general in any area within our region. 

[yoda]

00z NAM soundings still look good for Thursday afternoon 

[yoda]

Eskimo Joe likes this 

 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
338 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019


DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016-501>508-VAZ052>055-501-502-505-
506-181545-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0005.190618T1800Z-190619T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-
Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Charles-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick,
Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown,
Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton,
College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie,
Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton,
St. Charles, Waldorf, Frostburg, Cumberland, Germantown,
Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring,
Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen,
Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston,
Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia,
Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Warrenton,
Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling
338 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of
  Columbia, and northern Virginia, including the following
  areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Central and Eastern
  Allegany, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast
  Montgomery, Charles, Extreme Western Allegany, Frederick MD,
  Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard,
  Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford,
  Southern Baltimore, and Washington. The District of Columbia.
  In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria,
  Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Northern Fauquier, Prince
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Southern Fauquier, Stafford,
  and Western Loudoun.

* From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening

* Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to develop across
  the watch area this afternoon and linger into the evening.
  Localized rainfall totals of several inches are possible. This
  could lead to flash flooding, especially in the urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

[Kmlwx]

Day 3 slight already

[mappy]

@mattie g with the subtle troll 

[mattie g]

14 minutes ago, mappy said:

@mattie g with the subtle troll 

Well I never!

[North Balti Zen]

13 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Well I never!

Person:  The town is in ruins, all buildings are flattened, thousands are dead!

EJ: Is everyone dead?

Person: What? No, some have survived.

EJ: Meh. Next.

[mappy]

20 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Well I never!

we have our rolls to play. by the third "lame" i lost it. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, yoda said:

Eskimo Joe likes this 

meh

[yoda]

@mappy has received SLGT risk on the 1300 OTLK 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

@mappy has received SLGT risk on the 1300 OTLK 

sun is trying to come out, and its muggy AF. we shall see. 

[yoda]

24 minutes ago, mappy said:

sun is trying to come out, and its muggy AF. we shall see. 

Blue sky and sun here as well... guess we shall see how long this lasts

[high risk]

I certainly agree with SPC that the better wind fields later today will be up towards the PHL area as that convective vort max moves that way.    But there is a pretty strong signal in the CAMs for more widespread storm coverage right around DC.    The wind fields down this way will be slightly weaker but may support a few SVR reports - flash flooding may become the bigger concern, with several CAMs showing potential for multiple waves of storms.

[wawarriors4]

7 minutes ago, high risk said:

I certainly agree with SPC that the better wind fields later today will be up towards the PHL area as that convective vort max moves that way.    But there is a pretty strong signal in the CAMs for more widespread storm coverage right around DC.    The wind fields down this way will be slightly weaker but may support a few SVR reports - flash flooding may become the bigger concern, with several CAMs showing potential for multiple waves of storms.

It would figure the day I’m going to the Nationals game would be the day for multiple waves of storms to happen over DC. Last night we didn’t get much rain around Fredericksburg but the light show was pretty good. How much rain we looking at, 2”+ in some areas?