2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[jewell2188]

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

what were they this morning? i didn't read the text. 

Another dud.

[yoda]

Just now, jewell2188 said:

Another dud.

Lol too early to say that

[mappy]

1 minute ago, jewell2188 said:

Another dud.

i'm still under the watch, so 

[jewell2188]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

i'm still under the watch, so 

I’d rather have the heavy rain threat vs severe. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, jewell2188 said:

I’d rather have the heavy rain threat vs severe. 

We're quietly slipping into a very dry pattern since Memorial Day.  Several 'big' events beyond D3 have gone poof within 24 hrs.

[Kmlwx]

We are pretty close to the convective temp that @Eskimo Joe indicated.

College Park is reporting a dew down to 63.5 - most stations are higher around here though. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

We are pretty close to the convective temp that @Eskimo Joe indicated.

College Park is reporting a dew down to 63.5 - most stations are higher around here though. 

CU field popped in Gaithersburg.  88/62 at work.

[jewell2188]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're quietly slipping into a very dry pattern since Memorial Day.  Several 'big' events beyond D3 have gone poof within 24 hrs.

I have noticed! As I said this morning, this “threat” today and tomorrow went from exciting to meh in 24 hours. Certainly has been a change from this time last year. 

[JakkelWx]

90/69 here, CU field popping just east of me - probably the typical stalled seabreeze right along the Delaware bay's west coast

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, high risk said:

 

     # GFScancel

Seems to be the deb from a few days out usually. Though NAM usually goes too hardcore. Also when the FV3 and old GFS were running in parallel - I noticed on the COD website that the FV3 consistently put out lower supercell composite numbers. 

[mappy]

14 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

I’d rather have the heavy rain threat vs severe. 

rain or severe will cancel practice, so i'm good with either  

[Eskimo Joe]

It's 2PM and we haven't even had a pity meso.  Looks like a clean whiff today.

EDIT:  there's the pity meso https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md1103.html

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's 2PM and we haven't even had a pity meso.  Looks like a clean whiff today.

EDIT:  there's the pity meso https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md1103.html

It's so pitiful it cant be found.

[Kmlwx]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's 2PM and we haven't even had a pity meso.  Looks like a clean whiff today.

Now we have one lol

[Eskimo Joe]

At least all 3 terminal hit 90° today so JB looks like an idiot again.  lol

[dailylurker]

Getting garden hose out again. These "wet days" sure have been drying my garden out. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Only 81/ 68 here . 

We've cooled off to 86 in Gaithersburg.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Surprised no severe discussion.. seems like a nice day. 

[yoda]

Looks like initiation near Harrisonburg 

[Kmlwx]

About as lame of a 3pm radar as you could get.

[WeatherShak]

13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

About as lame of a 3pm radar as you could get.

Read that down-sloping would limit initiation for a while until closer to i95 corridor.  HRRR lights up in next 2-3 hours.  

[smokeybandit]

popup storm overhead, surely to make the rest of the afternoon even muggier than now.

[yoda]

Severe thunderstorm watch issued till 11pm for i95 corridor and east

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 392
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   405 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Delaware
     Eastern Maryland
     Southern New Jersey
     Southeast Pennsylvania
     Eastern Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until
     1100 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
   expected to develop across the region late this afternoon within an
   increasingly unstable environment, with the potential for the
   strongest of these storms to produce severe hail/wind.

[WxUSAF]

Can see the Bay breeze front on radar now. Storms blowing up when they hit it.

[yoda]

[NorthArlington101]

Well, it’s enough to stop me from coaching at the pool.

Nice cloud-to-ground not too far off in the distance.

[NorthArlington101]

Storm near Columbia, MD looks slightly spinny.

[yoda]

Storm near Bethesda now warned

[EastCoast NPZ]

Looking like another complete whiff for me.

1.25" over the last 6 weeks.  Back to desert.

[Scraff]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Storm near Columbia, MD looks slightly spinny.

Saw something on that one akin to a wall cloud. Unfortunately was driving the other way and was only able to see it for like 10 seconds. However. It’s heading my way. So we’ll see what happens shortly.