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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, George BM said:

If only we could get a Bill 2015 track repeat but with a very powerful southeast ridge in place. An example: Say, a category 1 landfall near Houston, TX Tuesday night, June 18, 2019. Then the fast-flow around the ridge combined with a shortwave moving in from the north slingshots it to this region by Thursday afternoon June 20, 2019 as a ~990mb low bringing backing SSE winds and upper 70's/80F dewpoints and mid 90'sF air temperatures yielding mlcape ~4000J/kg despite warm temperature profiles aloft with 50-60+ EBWD and 250-350+ m2/s2 effective shear bringing a goodly severe threat to the region. 

 

              you sick bastard.     :rolleyes:

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CAPE
CAPE

Shot of the storm approaching here from the end of my driveway. The rush of wind was impressive on the front end, and the power went out pretty quick. Just came back on after about an hour. Lots of tr

AmericanWxFreak
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tis been a little busy  

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

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1 hour ago, high risk said:

             Sure, if we can get low 60's dew points back on Thursday, and the front waits until mid-afternoon to move through, we could absolutely get a low-topped line of showers (or even t-storms) with some wind potential.     But if we were looking at a more typical June 84/68, it would have been a MDT risk day here for sure.

Why are you doing this to us - now I'm going to dream of severe. 

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z NAM looks a lil bit more intriguing for Thursday evening... at 21z THUR at KIAD, SBCAPE is around 1500, ML Lapse Rates around 6.5 C/KM, 0-6km shear around 65 kts, and MLCAPE just below 1000 with 0-3km CAPE around 170... SRH at all levels looks decent

    I'll bite.   :)         There is a bullseye of 1500+ cape in northern VA Friday, but it's because the NAM somehow creates a small pocket of higher 2m dew points that seems pretty fishy.    No doubt about the awesome wind fields aloft leading to some excellent deep layer shear, but what really messes us up is the surface low that passes to our east Thursday morning and turns our winds to northerly.     It does look winds will turn back to southwest during the afternoon, but I don't think it will be in time to bring enough warmth and moisture back into the area for widespread SVR.      It does look like 500 sfc-based cape is a possibility, though, and with those wind fields, I wouldn't be shocked if SPC puts us in a day 3 MRGL for the possibility of a forced line of gusty showers/storms along the cold front.      That surface low needs to either be a much weaker feature than currently progged or move faster to the northeast to give us a big SVR day Thursday.

sfccape69-1.gif

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

I have to admit that while I'm not yet "in", I'm more intrigued.     The surface low moving up the eastern shore Wednesday night isn't as defined and is slightly faster now, so the disruption to our low-level wind field may not be as pronounced.    Most guidance now quickly turns us back around to SW sfc winds Thursday morning.      I have had doubts how quickly we can clear out after the early rain, but the downsloping may be enough to help clear things out, especially in VA which will also be further away from the low departing to the northeast.     I still have some doubts about low-level moisture, and this looks like an event where the effects of 65 vs 61 dew points will be huge.     Forecast soundings all have amazing deep-layer shear and better low-level shear than last night's runs, but the cape is "tall and skinny", so I wonder if updrafts will really be able to crank up in such a sheared environment.      It's hard to not notice that UH track in the NAM nest that goes from DC to the beaches, but for now I think I agree with SPC that the better threat is west and northwest of DC where 1) sfc heating is more likely    2)  higher dew points may pool   3) better lapse rates exist as the trough arrives from the west.

Wondering if a wind advisory will be needed early Friday as a 45-50 kt LLJ overspreads the area.    They'll need a high wind warning over the terrain of eastern WV if the NAM nest is right.

 

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high risk

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Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Long range 12z HRRR has a bow echo type thing come through the area tomorrow afternoon. 

       it's a nice looking simulated reflectivity signal for sure, but the forecast soundings out ahead out if have almost no instability to work with.     I still think that some strongly-forced gusty showers (maybe some thunder?) are likely ahead of the front, but organized severe is going to be tough.    The problem is still that the low-level wind fields don't turn around to south until early afternoon due to that departing low to our northeast.

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biodhokie

biodhokie

Posted
Posted 
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
VAC047-061-153-179-132115-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0191.190613T2028Z-190613T2115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
428 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Stafford County in northern Virginia...
  Southeastern Fauquier County in northern Virginia...
  Central Culpeper County in northern Virginia...
  Southwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia...

* Until 515 PM EDT.

* At 428 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bealeton, or
  9 miles east of Culpeper, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Bealeton, Nokesville, Opal, Remington, Catlett, Calverton, Midland,
  Elkwood, Stevensburg, Roseville, Brandy Station, Lois,
  Garrisonville, Aden, Heflin, Morrisville, Ruby, Alanthus,
  Somerville and Sumerduck.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3844 7791 3857 7794 3870 7752 3847 7739
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 255DEG 26KT 3851 7784

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
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Poodleusier

Poodleusier

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Just had some pea sized hail out of the storm that just came through.

I got a mix of pea to marble sized hail just a little east of you.  Made quite a racket with the wind blowing it into windows on west side of house.  Got 0.56" in 10 minutes with that storm.

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