2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[JakkelWx]

Storms have missed me to the south but I got some nice views of cumulonimbus. Tonight seems like one of those nights where a surprise flare up of storms could happen

[87storms]

mostly skunked here.  just some drizzle.

[dailylurker]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Actually LWX is talking about flooding in their AFD this afternoon for Sundaybinto next week 

I was just venting my frustration about not getting any rain. I did end up getting a nice little pop up heavy shower right over my garden. I hope some more stuff pops up this evening. I'd love some thunder and lightning.

[Kmlwx]

Time period around June 11th might be our next severe threat. CIPS guidance is printing out some threat around that time based on analogs. 

[Eskimo Joe]

15 hours ago, yoda said:

Actually LWX is talking about flooding in their AFD this afternoon for Sunday into next week 

Not a real flood unless we're talking 4"+

[smokeybandit]

My back yard is just now getting back to "normal" (meaning it no longer floods with a mere 1/4" rain).

 

I'd rather not go back needing a snorkel to mow.

[high risk]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Time period around June 11th might be our next severe threat. CIPS guidance is printing out some threat around that time based on analogs. 

                SPC is discussing a possible threat here around that time too in the Day 4-8 outlook.

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, high risk said:

                SPC is discussing a possible threat here around that time too in the Day 4-8 outlook.

It's not a minor signal either - for long leads the percentages on CIPS are actually halfway decent. Now we'll see if it holds. If we can avoid having SPC outlook us in a 15% on day 3 or beyond we'll be golden

[Kmlwx]

Relevant text from the D4-8 outlook for those interested...

 

Quote

However, the northward return of a seasonably moist boundary layer,
   coupled with strengthening of southwesterly deep-layer wind fields
   ahead of the cold front, still may pose as least some severe
   thunderstorm potential.  This seems most probable across the lower
   Great Lakes region and upper Ohio Valley on Monday, into the
   Northeast and Mid Atlantic Coast region by late Tuesday.  While
   severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent at this
   point, due to lingering uncertainties concerning synoptic, and
   especially sub-synoptic, developments, this could still change in
   outlooks closer to the "Day 1" time frame.

 

[Kmlwx]

% of top 15 analogs with severe reports exceeding 10 severe reports within 110km of a point. This is from the 0z CIPS suite. Hour 120

 

[Kmlwx]

Here's the one for exceeding ONE severe report within 110km

[Eskimo Joe]

Next week could be one of those setups where north of I-66 floods and south of there gets into sunshine and severe.  

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Next week could be one of those setups where north of I-66 floods and south of there gets into sunshine and severe.  

Deb

[jewell2188]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Next week could be one of those setups where north of I-66 floods and south of there gets into sunshine and severe.  

LWX from this morning 

Although more precise timing and finer scale details remain
uncertain, there is increasing confidence in a heavy rain and flood
threat early next week, and possibly again later next week.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Deb

Unless something changes we're going to be on the outside looking in on a good flood setup.  Hope I'm wrong and we get slammed.  Really miss the big floods of the early 2000s.

[adelphi_sky]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Next week could be one of those setups where north of I-66 floods and south of there gets into sunshine and severe.  

I'm ready for HUrricane tracking now. I'm done staring at radar hoping for drops of rain to feed my baby grass. I'll just replant in the fall. Bring on the big storms!  

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, adelphi_sky said:

I'm ready for HUrricane tracking now. I'm done staring at radar hoping for drops of rain to feed my baby grass. I'll just replant in the fall. Bring on the big storms!  

This has been a good spring for our lawn.  We had a huge infestation of flying ants that wrecked our lawn and the reseeding was intense this year but the cool spring helped most of the grass take.

[George BM]

29 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

I'm ready for HUrricane tracking now. I'm done staring at radar hoping for drops of rain to feed my baby grass. I'll just replant in the fall. Bring on the big storms!  

1893 tropical system tracks redux with a Hazel and 1878 track thrown in with mid 30's Celsius water temps off the SE coast and in the Gulf of Mexico please... pretty please with 22 cherries on top.

[adelphi_sky]

41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This has been a good spring for our lawn.  We had a huge infestation of flying ants that wrecked our lawn and the reseeding was intense this year but the cool spring helped most of the grass take.

Sorry to hear about the flying ants. Glad you got most of your lawn back. To be honest, I'm just complaining about maybe 10% of my lawn. But its curb appeal ya know. :-)

[yoda]

LWX in their afternoon AFD mentioned the chance for some severe early next week... on Monday I believe 

[WEATHER53]

I’ve been in 3  60mph+ gusts torrential sheets of rain thunderstorms already.

Dont have  typical summer outlook this year but I  think well below average number of 90 days like 25 even though overall temp average about 0.5 of normal

Tropics busy

will go with  16 named but just 7 hurricanes 2 of which major.

[high risk]

a pretty spectacular upper wind field will spread across our region Thursday (over 100 kt at 250 mb), but it's going to be wasted for severe weather due to the inability to get quality moisture to return to our area after it gets shunted to our south Tuesday.

[Kmlwx]

4 hours ago, high risk said:

a pretty spectacular upper wind field will spread across our region Thursday (over 100 kt at 250 mb), but it's going to be wasted for severe weather due to the inability to get quality moisture to return to our area after it gets shunted to our south Tuesday.

You got me REALLY excited and then I got totally deflated as I kept reading

[yoda]

12 hours ago, high risk said:

a pretty spectacular upper wind field will spread across our region Thursday (over 100 kt at 250 mb), but it's going to be wasted for severe weather due to the inability to get quality moisture to return to our area after it gets shunted to our south Tuesday.

12z NAM seems to think otherwise... its at the end of its run, at KIAD at 78 hours, it has ~1000 SBCAPE at 18z THUR with MLCAPE at around 650.  0-6km shear is flying at over 60 kts.  

[Kmlwx]

@yoda - Remember though that shear can't be too strong is instability isn't that great as the updrafts could get ripped apart. Plus...NAM at range disclaimer as usual. 

[high risk]

29 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z NAM seems to think otherwise... its at the end of its run, at KIAD at 78 hours, it has ~1000 SBCAPE at 18z THUR with MLCAPE at around 650.  0-6km shear is flying at over 60 kts.  

             Sure, if we can get low 60's dew points back on Thursday, and the front waits until mid-afternoon to move through, we could absolutely get a low-topped line of showers (or even t-storms) with some wind potential.     But if we were looking at a more typical June 84/68, it would have been a MDT risk day here for sure.

[George BM]

3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

@yoda - Remember though that shear can't be too strong is instability isn't that great as the updrafts could get ripped apart. Plus...NAM at range disclaimer as usual. 

If only we could get a Bill 2015 track repeat but with a very powerful southeast ridge in place. An example: Say, a category 1 landfall near Houston, TX Tuesday night, June 18, 2019. Then the fast-flow around the ridge combined with a shortwave moving in from the north slingshots it to this region by Thursday afternoon June 20, 2019 as a ~990mb low bringing backing SSE winds and upper 70's/80F dewpoints and mid 90'sF air temperatures yielding mlcape ~4000J/kg despite warm temperature profiles aloft with 50-60+kt EBWD and 250-350+ m2/s2 effective shear bringing a goodly severe threat to the region. 

Sorry. Weenie mode getting carried away. But you hopefully get my drift. 

[George BM]

5 minutes ago, high risk said:

             Sure, if we can get low 60's dew points back on Thursday, and the front waits until mid-afternoon to move through, we could absolutely get a low-topped line of showers (or even t-storms) with some wind potential.     But if we were looking at a more typical June 84/68, it would have been a MDT risk day here for sure.

Random note: This Thursday marks 6 years since the immediate area was last under a moderate risk.

[JakkelWx]

Yuck low topped thunderstorms... makes me wanna throw up

[frd]

Severe really of the table conus-wide as things have calmed down considerably.