2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

I'm out for now on Wednesday. The models seem to indicate we won't have a whole lot of instability to work with. NAM nest (at range) focuses any severe threat in KY/TN and Western NC it seems. It just sends a line of showers through Wed PM. 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

.02” of rain as all storms missed me yesterday. 

You got .02" more than me.

[Eskimo Joe]

9 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Pretty tame in Columbia - but today was a BIG hail day for a good chunk of the area. Wow...severe season has been generous to this region this year. 

Let's see what we can do Wednesday. 

It's been concentrated on just a few areas though.  We could really use a good regionwide event or two.

[Kmlwx]

41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's been concentrated on just a few areas though.  We could really use a good regionwide event or two.

That's typically how severe is around here though. Two HoCo tornadoes in the span of around a week, big hail even in downtown DC, is pretty decent. Something like June 2012 is going to be very tough to come by. Wednesday looks incredibly meh to me right now

[Eskimo Joe]

Not sure if anybody posted this:

 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

That's typically how severe is around here though. Two HoCo tornadoes in the span of around a week, big hail even in downtown DC, is pretty decent. Something like June 2012 is going to be very tough to come by. Wednesday looks incredibly meh to me right now

Dont need a derecho...a day of wedges would be interesting

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Dont need a derecho...a day of wedges would be interesting

Without an Ivan we probably won't get that. Even days like La Plata and College Park featured one biggie and not more widespread naders. 

[Kmlwx]

Also we are going to start to enter our normal "pulse severe" phase time of year as we get through June and into July. I hope we can keep some of the nice shear we've had to work with this year. Imagine a 100+ degree day with high dews and nice shear combining with a good forcing mechanism. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Also we are going to start to enter our normal "pulse severe" phase time of year as we get through June and into July. I hope we can keep some of the nice shear we've had to work with this year. Imagine a 100+ degree day with high dews and nice shear combining with a good forcing mechanism. 

110/72 with a nice EML

[high risk]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

110/72 with a nice EML

       We once had 102/78 with a nice EML.... and we got the 2012 derecho.

   

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

       We once had 102/78 with a nice EML.... and we got the 2012 derecho.

   

I just love how great a hot summer feels.  Working outside or going for a walk in th evening when everything is really warm with a deep orange sun setting against the corn fields.

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I just love how great a hot summer feels.  Working outside or going for a walk in th evening when everything is really warm with a deep orange sun setting against the corn fields.

I hate 100+ and humid unless we are going to have severe to track. Blech lol

[high risk]

FWIW, I have no idea how real or not real Wednesday's threat is.      It's a low-amplitude, fast-moving shortwave for which there is little model agreement.

[Kmlwx]

17 minutes ago, high risk said:

FWIW, I have no idea how real or not real Wednesday's threat is.      It's a low-amplitude, fast-moving shortwave for which there is little model agreement.

The only thing I've noticed that is consistent on most of the models is that it doesn't seem to be a high CAPE environment at all. Highest sounding SBCAPE I've seen is sub 1000 J/KG

[mappy]

5 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You got .02" more than me.

damn and i thought my pitiful rain shower was bad. 

[mappy]

38 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I just love how great a hot summer feels.  Working outside or going for a walk in th evening when everything is really warm with a deep orange sun setting against the corn fields.

hot muggy nights are great for night swims in the pool. 

[high risk]

29 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The only thing I've noticed that is consistent on most of the models is that it doesn't seem to be a high CAPE environment at all. Highest sounding SBCAPE I've seen is sub 1000 J/KG

       good point, although the NAM nest seems to be a fair amount higher, although it has much higher low-level dew points than the other guidance.

[Kmlwx]

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

       good point, although the NAM nest seems to be a fair amount higher, although it has much higher low-level dew points than the other guidance.

Does seem that it can overdo those dews at times. I'll wait until tomorrow afternoon before I go out entirely...just doesn't have "the look" 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

hot muggy nights are great for night swims in the pool. 

In the dark so the neighbors cant see you 

[mappy]

57 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

In the dark so the neighbors cant see you 

thats the only way to night swim. need a cloudy-ish night, none of that full moon stuff (already enough of that as it is)

[yoda]

4 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Does seem that it can overdo those dews at times. I'll wait until tomorrow afternoon before I go out entirely...just doesn't have "the look" 

FWIW, LWX afternoon AFD mentioned the threat and said the shear is there and the shear profiles suggest severe storms, but instability is on question

Maybe it will be one of those high shear low CAPE days?

[Kmlwx]

49 minutes ago, yoda said:

FWIW, LWX afternoon AFD mentioned the threat and said the shear is there and the shear profiles suggest severe storms, but instability is on question

Maybe it will be one of those high shear low CAPE days?

Those tend to result in pencil thing lines of gusty showers around here. 

[87storms]

nam 3k has an interesting line of storms for wednesday.

[WEATHER53]

On 6/2/2019 at 6:51 PM, Bodhi Cove said:

JFC. What the hell just hit South eastern Baltimore county?

I was in this at 95 and Balt Beltway, Very soft splatting hail, unreal sheets of rain with 50 mph gusts for about 15 minutes. Lots of cars pulled over,  20-25 mph top speed driving.

[yoda]

Back in the SLGT risk for tomorrow, Wednesday 

[H2O]

18 hours ago, mappy said:

hot muggy nights are great for night swims in the pool. 

In the chessie bay is better.  the minnows like to nibble

[yoda]

12z 3km NAM sim radar looks nice for tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night

[high risk]

4 hours ago, yoda said:

Back in the SLGT risk for tomorrow, Wednesday 

              I think I'm IN.     While the details among the CAMs so far this morning are not in agreement, they all have good storms somewhere close to the DC-Baltimore area with a combination of instability and shear that isn't amazing but will certainly justify a SLGT risk.     If we could combine the NAM nest instability with the strong HRRR wind fields, we'd likely be looking at an ENH.

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, high risk said:

              I think I'm IN.     While the details among the CAMs so far this morning are not in agreement, they all have good storms somewhere close to the DC-Baltimore area with a combination of instability and shear that isn't amazing but will certainly justify a SLGT risk.     If we could combine the NAM nest instability with the strong HRRR wind fields, we'd likely be looking at an ENH.

Go big or go home boys. Let's bring it home. 

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Go big or go home boys. Let's bring it home. 

      Boom!     Actually, one interesting aspect of the NAM nest forecast is that it pops a sfc low later Wednesday night over the eastern shore, and whatever shortwave is causing that leads to a huge response in the low level wind fields.      Instability is iffy, but the hodographs over eastern ME and DE look amazing.     I have big doubts about whether this feature is legit, but there would be a threat of late night TORs east of here if it verified.