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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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nw baltimore wx

nw baltimore wx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mappy said:

ugh, sorry to hear! 

Thanks.  It was pretty funny that I thought the storm was going north into your area, and then instead, it expanded south.  And even funnier that I downplayed it until all heck broke loose.  It kept intensifying as it went east of me and I hear the White Marsh and Perry Hall got hit pretty bad, and maybe even a tornado in Perry Hall? 

For me, my biggest concern is that I had just finished brewing and was putting the beer in the fermenter when the storm hit.  I use an old chest freezer to control my fermentation temperature, and without power, it's a little tough!  Beer concerns > property concerns.

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Shot of the storm approaching here from the end of my driveway. The rush of wind was impressive on the front end, and the power went out pretty quick. Just came back on after about an hour. Lots of tr

AmericanWxFreak
AmericanWxFreak
mappy
mappy

tis been a little busy  

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Thanks.  It was pretty funny that I thought the storm was going north into your area, and then instead, it expanded south.  And even funnier that I downplayed it until all heck broke loose.  It kept intensifying as it went east of me and I hear the White Marsh and Perry Hall got hit pretty bad, and maybe even a tornado in Perry Hall? 

For me, my biggest concern is that I had just finished brewing and was putting the beer in the fermenter when the storm hit.  I use an old chest freezer to control my fermentation temperature, and without power, it's a little tough!  Beer concerns > property concerns.

Yeah, i heard the White Marsh area and Perry Hall had quite a bit of damage, i imagine NWS will be out there today to check it out WBAL was showing pics of some really large trees down across a road, bringing down power lines. 

Hopefully your beer is okay! 

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, high risk said:

          All true, but why are you posting a video taken in Colorado in 2016 in this thread??

i mean, its a beautiful tornado. so i get it. but yes. its old. 

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
Just now, frd said:

My bad, sorry, I did not mean for that video to take up valuable space here, it was meant for banter. 

you will never hear me complain about someone posting tornado videos :) 

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

Interesting scenario in the recent HRRR runs.    There are a couple of lead cells (supercells?) in the mid-afternoon, followed by more widespread storms just before sunset.  If we have any tornado potential today, it may be more with round 2.    The storms with round 1 will be more discrete, but the wind profiles look lousy on guidance, and the PBL is fairly deep.     Round 2 will have better wind fields throughout the column, a slightly cooler boundary layer, and perhaps some remnant boundaries to work with.

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, mappy said:

also, did anyone notice the rotation on radar yesterday when the storm went through the White Marsh area? seems it was rotating clockwise and not counterclockwise?

                I wasn't closely watching the radar yesterday evening, but the wind profiles in northeast MD up into PA favored splitting supercells, so perhaps a split occurred upstream, and the left mover went through that area.     

 

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Stormfly

Stormfly

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Thanks.  It was pretty funny that I thought the storm was going north into your area, and then instead, it expanded south.  And even funnier that I downplayed it until all heck broke loose.  It kept intensifying as it went east of me and I hear the White Marsh and Perry Hall got hit pretty bad, and maybe even a tornado in Perry Hall? 

For me, my biggest concern is that I had just finished brewing and was putting the beer in the fermenter when the storm hit.  I use an old chest freezer to control my fermentation temperature, and without power, it's a little tough!  Beer concerns > property concerns.

Pick up a cheap 5kW genny.

And the rule is your lights never go out after you get one!
Just like it never snows after you buy a snow blower! ;)

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, high risk said:

                I wasn't closely watching the radar yesterday evening, but the wind profiles in northeast MD up into PA favored splitting supercells, so perhaps a split occurred upstream, and the left mover went through that area.     

 

yeah, i have no idea. just seeing it be discussed on twitter. 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
Quote 

000
FXUS61 KLWX 301429
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1029 AM EDT THU MAY 30 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY BEFORE
CROSSING THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. 
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. 
AFTERWARD, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS POISED TO SETTLE OVER THE 
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TAKE US RESIDENCE 
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING, MUCH LIKE IT HAS THE PAST 
COUPLE OF DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR ILLINOIS WILL TRACK 
EASTWARD TODAY, NEARING THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AS A 
COLD FRONT NEARS TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A 
COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE FIRST OCCURRING 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE SECOND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
INTO THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE 
AREA. 

THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE INGREDIENTS HIGHLIGHTED 
BELOW AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THE THREAT FOR 
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 
SLIGHT RISK DEPICTED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER NOW 
HIGHLIGHTS OUR ENTIRE CWA, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY 
THREAT, HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN 
POSSIBLE. NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MD WILL BE FAVORED WITH 
THE BEST DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK GIVEN THE 
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, INCREASING SOUTHERLY/VEERING
WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3KM OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, AND HIGHER 0-1KM
SRH VALUES. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST 
PACKAGE.

 

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

A lot more debris clouds overhead slowing down the warming today...not sure anyone gets anything worth writing home about.  

the sky is a little sloppy looking so far, but hopefully we can get a couple hours of good clearing.  the entire pattern might end up being too chaotic for our neck of the woods.  i feel like we do better with soupy, stagnant airmasses with abundant sunshine as a prelude to severe weather.  in some ways, it's like winter...we do better with a consolidated system that isn't mucked up by the mountains.

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Latest HRRR has initiation around the metros around 18z. 

13z hrrrrrr seems to like the idea of a lone strong cell moving thru the city, but that's quite a roll of the dice.  round 2 has better coverage, but not sure how much remnant cape there will be.  it's possible we might want round 1 to be lame.

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adelphi_sky

adelphi_sky

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

A lot more debris clouds overhead slowing down the warming today...not sure anyone gets anything worth writing home about.  

I'm already at 87.6 degrees. Only 3 degrees shy of where I was yesterday at this time. I thought someone said yesterday that too much heat was bad and would cause storms to gust out? Which was news to me because I thought heat was good. Now today we need to be int he 90's again? Is there an optimal temp range for storms not to "gust out?" BTW, what does gust out mean lol 

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Boooooo! 

Paging HighRisk for some good news ;)

              I'm not calling for any type of high end event, but most people will either see 1 or 2 rounds of storms today (more isolated round 1 and more widespread round 2).  Instability won't be impressive (regardless of cloud debris), but deep layer shear is decent and will improve, so  I still expect SVR reports in the area to justify the slight risk.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

I'm already at 87.6 degrees. Only 3 degrees shy of where I was yesterday at this time. I thought someone said yesterday that too much heat was bad and would cause storms to gust out? Which was news to me because I thought heat was good. Now today we need to be int he 90's again? Is there an optimal temp range for storms not to "gust out?" BTW, what does gust out mean lol 

Storms will gust out if they are not able to maintain their updraft.  This was evident yesterday with the cell that originated near New Market, traversed the Rt. 26 corridor and gusted out along I-795.  In order for storm to maintain their updraft, they need to be continuously propagated whether by a front, self made cold pool or something else.  

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

I'm already at 87.6 degrees. Only 3 degrees shy of where I was yesterday at this time. I thought someone said yesterday that too much heat was bad and would cause storms to gust out? Which was news to me because I thought heat was good. Now today we need to be int he 90's again? Is there an optimal temp range for storms not to "gust out?" BTW, what does gust out mean lol 

              To add on to EJ's reply, my discussion of gusting out was related to tornado potential yesterday.      If you have a supercell and want it to make it to tornadogenesis, there has to be a balance between inflow and outflow.      If the PBL gets too hot and deeply mixed, you get a lot of  downdraft cape, meaning that the storm's downdraft can become very strong (rain falling into relatively dry air will evaporate, cooling the air, and forcing it to sink even more aggressively) and overwhelm the inflow.    Supercells that are outflow-dominant are way less likely to produce tornadoes.            Otherwise, you're right that sfc heating is a great thing for storms in general, as you're increasing instability.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, high risk said:

              To add on to EJ's reply, my discussion of gusting out was related to tornado potential yesterday.      If you have a supercell and want it to make it to tornadogenesis, there has to be a balance between inflow and outflow.      If the PBL gets too hot and deeply mixed, you get a lot of  downdraft cape, meaning that the storm's downdraft can become very strong (rain falling into relatively dry air will evaporate, cooling the air, and forcing it to sink even more aggressively) and overwhelm the inflow.    Supercells that are outflow-dominant are way less likely to produce tornadoes.            Otherwise, you're right that sfc heating is a great thing for storms in general, as you're increasing instability.

great explanation! 

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