2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[yoda]

18z NAM NEST looks nice... again lol for tomorrow.  DCA smacked 19z to 20z with random supercell it appears and then line comes through around 00z

[JakkelWx]

Huge anvil i can see over Baltimore.

[nj2va]

Pop up over Alexandria. Bust cancel. Lol

[yoda]

Anne Arundel cell warned for 80mph winds and ping pong ball size hail

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Anne Arundel cell warned for 80mph winds and ping pong ball size hail

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
621 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019

MDC003-292230-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0136.000000T0000Z-190529T2230Z/
Anne Arundel MD-
621 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...

At 620 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Gibson Island,
moving east at 55 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your
         life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to
         some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to
         roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes.

Locations impacted include...
Gibson Island, Sillery Bay, Pinehurst, Arnold, Lake Shore and Cape
St. Claire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a very dangerous storm, with the potential of producing
widespread wind damage across Gibson Island and Cape St. Claire.
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

[ATreglown]

Another pity MD from SPC for the RIC area. 40% for a watch. Hoping the cells to my west hold together!

[frd]

Townsend/Warwick aera... Delaware to my South getting hit pretty good right now.

To this day still figuring out why so many nasty storms miss to my South , maybe the canal ( C & D ) and waterway, not sure. 

[nw baltimore wx]

As soon as I said that storm here was typical, it went nuts. Hail, gusty winds and sheets of rain. No power since

[wxdude64]

BIL is 99% sure he had a tornado go thru about 30-40 minutes ago. Has a 100-150 wide path shearing off trees and damaging roofs! Hail about a quarter too. He is about 20 miles east of Roanoke near a community called Goodview.

EDIT-he got HOME at that time, storm was before 6 pm.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

That might end up being one of the sole severe reports in this CWA. 

Nope...lol  Check out [at]iembot_lwx on Twitter

[JakkelWx]

Severe threat looks to be over. I had a nice short lightning storm, and a new cell popped up just east of me in the past half hour. Onto tomorrow, lol. Had a damn close strike btw

[adelphi_sky]

Would've been nice to have all these storm trains over us for three days. Only have one day left. I just want the rain to be honest. Some small hail would be fun. Any chance this gets strung out until Friday for us down here below the PA/MD line? 

[high risk]

realizing that most people didn't see any storm today out of the ENH risk and are demoralized, but the 00z suite has kicked out with the HRRR continuing to look good for tomorrow.  Tomorrow's setup may actually be less complicated.

[RobC]

Been following this forum for a while now...love what you guys do!  Wild storm in the Perry Hall, MD area today.  Measured a 65 mph gust and witnessed what I believe is a wall cloud.  Hoping NWS sends out members to assess the damage...really think there was a quick spin up in my area...

IMG_1150.HEIC

[Kmlwx]

NAM nest sucks except for a lone supercell-type storm that goes right over DC. Distinct possibility some of us blank on all 3 days...

[2010 extreme]

17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

NAM nest sucks except for a lone supercell-type storm that goes right over DC. Distinct possibility some of us blank on all 3 days...

Exactly, now if we can just get the winds backed at the surface.

[high risk]

32 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

NAM nest sucks except for a lone supercell-type storm that goes right over DC. Distinct possibility some of us blank on all 3 days...

        Looking at the 00z NAM nest, HRRR, and Hi-Res Windows, the NAM nest has by far the lowest amount of coverage of storms.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

        Looking at the 00z NAM nest, HRRR, and Hi-Res Windows, the NAM nest has by far the lowest amount of coverage of storms.

Supposedly the front is going to move through down into NC per the AFD... so hopefully this means better chances of at least getting a storm tomorrow afternoon...

I did find it interesting that the SPC 1730 OTLK did mention the threat for a few tornadoes...

[high risk]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Supposedly the front is going to move through down into NC per the AFD... so hopefully this means better chances of at least getting a storm tomorrow afternoon...

I did find it interesting that the SPC 1730 OTLK did mention the threat for a few tornadoes...

         The wind profiles looked better in model runs earlier today, so the UH tracks in the 00z suite don't look quite as impressive overall, but the overall shear Thursday will be a significant improvement over today.

[yoda]

27 minutes ago, high risk said:

         The wind profiles looked better in model runs earlier today, so the UH tracks in the 00z suite don't look quite as impressive overall, but the overall shear Thursday will be a significant improvement over today.

So we looking at SLGT risk tomorrow?  Maybe a chance at ENH?  I'm gonna go with 5/15/15 for the new day 1

[high risk]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

So we looking at SLGT risk tomorrow?  Maybe a chance at ENH?  I'm gonna go with 5/15/15 for the new day 1

           I think SLGT, and I'm on board with your percentages.    If instability were a little greater, we'd be looking at ENH.

[H2O]

3 days in a row of storms all around but not IMBY has left me a tad disheartened.

[mappy]

eh

[frd]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

eh

@mappy  I am guessing you missed the majority of the storms mappy ?  

I think you are located near the PA and MD line out West, and at the recent Southern boundary of the most active severe weather in PA, is that right ?

One thing for sure, I did get a lot of rain yesterday, and I missed a warned celll to my South by a few miles. 

[jewell2188]

Stepped outside, feels like another meh kind of day. Seems as though we are moving away from the extreme wet pattern we’ve been in for the last year so that’s a plus lol.

[mappy]

12 minutes ago, frd said:

@mappy  I am guessing you missed the majority of the storms mappy ?  

I think you are located near the PA and MD line out West, and at the recent Southern boundary of the most active severe weather in PA, is that right ?

One thing for sure, I did get a lot of rain yesterday, and I missed a warned celll to my South by a few miles. 

I went out to dinner after work and was under a thunderstorm warning around 545. I left the area to drive home around 630 and caught a shelf cloud. Though, it never rained...so I'm not sure if it was on the western edge of the cell that hit the White Marsh area. I was driving and didn't look at radar.

It had rained at home, I am due north of Baltimore city, about 3 miles from the PA line, but no idea if it stormed or not. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Still no power in our hood from last night's storm.  I've been living here for 15 years and this is the longest we've ever gone without power.  Interestingly, BGE "updated" our grid last fall.  Probably a coincidence, but it makes me wonder.

[87storms]

i've seen worse hrrr runs.  has two lines moving through, albeit a bit choppy.

[87storms]

nam looks awful, but maybe it can improve towards gametime...hopefully starting with 12z.

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Still no power in our hood from last night's storm.  I've been living here for 15 years and this is the longest we've ever gone without power.  Interestingly, BGE "updated" our grid last fall.  Probably a coincidence, but it makes me wonder.

ugh, sorry to hear!