2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[mappy]

28 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like it will be a red box too

they have it purple because they aren't sure yet as of the MD whether it will be red/blue. Even the text just says "watch likely" with 95% chance. yesterday they clearly said tornado watch likely. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Blue box for West Virginia until 7:00 pm.  I'd imagine we can't be far behind.

[yoda]

1630 SPC probs and risk areas pretty much remained same... 30 wind and 30 hail for N VA into PA including DC/BALT metro areas... only real change was the 5% TOR was moved north slightly from N VA into N MD

[yoda]

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

they have it purple because they aren't sure yet as of the MD whether it will be red/blue. Even the text just says "watch likely" with 95% chance. yesterday they clearly said tornado watch likely. 

Thank you for the clarification regarding the color

[mappy]

Just now, yoda said:

Thank you for the clarification regarding the color

you're welcome! 

[Kmlwx]

You can see the DC split showing up already (half kidding)

[Kmlwx]

Multiple stations now showing 90 degrees. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Multiple stations now showing 90 degrees. 

DCA and BWI...just need IAD for the trifecta.  Looks like some CU popping so the cap must be breaking.  Hope it holds until the storm get closer from the west.

[Vice-Regent]

91 at KWWD ... T-Storm probabilities upped to 70%. I am pumped. It's very rare to get back to back severe wx days locally. 3 days if you count yesterday.

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

DCA and BWI...just need IAD for the trifecta.  Looks like some CU popping so the cap must be breaking.  Hope it holds until the storm get closer from the west.

Early cap breaking is one of our other top ways to fail around here. Need cap to hold another hour or two ideally. 

[mappy]

new thunderstorm watch out for the Pitt area -- any watches issued for us, or PA, will be blue. That's my call. 

[yoda]

Blue box went up for Ohio into W PA and stopped there... maybe a red box for central and eastern PA in a lil bit?  Just guessing as only PBZ counties are in the watch... no CTP counties

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Early cap breaking is one of our other top ways to fail around here. Need cap to hold another hour or two ideally. 

I believe Eskimo Joe posted earlier that 12z IAD RAOB had convT of 89 degrees... so that's probably why the cap is breaking 

[H2O]

Watch the blob in WVa

[Eskimo Joe]

Red Box for PA and Cecil County until 00z...

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Blue box went up for Ohio into W PA and stopped there... maybe a red box for central and eastern PA in a lil bit?  Just guessing as only PBZ counties are in the watch... no CTP counties

If there's a red box anywhere today it will be there. 

[yoda]

Tornado watch coming for PA and NJ and extreme NE MD and northern DE

[Vice-Regent]

Just now, H2O said:

Watch the blob in WVa

It's always the blob. Looking for a June 2012 derecho but it never happens.

[high risk]

you can see how the blue box later will fit in nicely across eastern WV,  northern VA, and MD         SPC forecasters refer to this process as "boxology"  

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

It's always the blob. Looking for a June 2012 derecho but it never happens.

So much CAPE available for that one - temps were triple digits ahead of that. Tons and tons of fuel for it. Didn't that have an EML as well? 

[Stormfly]

It's steamy out there. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

So much CAPE available for that one - temps were triple digits ahead of that. Tons and tons of fuel for it. Didn't that have an EML as well? 

Correct on all accounts.  The 00z IAD sounding prior to the 2012 derecho had an 850 temp of +24.  the science officer at LWX did a quick analysis and found that 850 temps only occurred 6 times beforehand.  

[mappy]

12 minutes ago, mappy said:

new thunderstorm watch out for the Pitt area -- any watches issued for us, or PA, will be blue. That's my call. 

well shit. blue box for us at least... maybe. ill shut up now

[high risk]

Just now, mappy said:

well shit. blue box for us at least... maybe. ill shut up now

       hahaha.     There is no way that any box for us isn't blue.

[mappy]

Just now, high risk said:

       hahaha.     There is no way that any box for us isn't blue.

well maybe in that maybe we will see one? who knows -- i didn't think conditions were that great for tornadoes in PA, but alas, here we are. I could drive to a tornado watch lol

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, high risk said:

       hahaha.     There is no way that any box for us isn't blue.

Would tend to agree with you.  The SFC - 3km heliticty values are far more impressive north of Mason-Dixon down into the upper Delaware Bay region.

[Kmlwx]

Latest HRRR absolutely sucks for us

Looks like we play dodge the storms on that run. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Latest HRRR absolutely sucks for us

Looks like we play dodge the storms on that run. 

It would be peak DC to be in an ENH and miss everything.

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

well maybe in that maybe we will see one? who knows -- i didn't think conditions were that great for tornadoes in PA, but alas, here we are. I could drive to a tornado watch lol

          We're almost certain to get a blue box later.      I agree that the TOR threat is limited even in PA, but while the low level winds are meh, the overall shear is decent.   So I see SPC's thought that any modification of the low-level winds by the front or storm interactions could lead to a TOR.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

RIP, IAD to Mappy tomorrow on the 12z NAMNEST at HR 34 -> 36