2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[high risk]

      all 3 hires windows look terrific for later today.  

[high risk]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

For laughs - there is a pocket of 30+ supercell composite parameter tomorrow over Central MD. SE surface wind on the sounding I pulled and a NICE looking hodograph. I'm sure it's contaminated. 

         Yes!    Based on the 12z HRRR and NAM nest, tomorrow is a SLGT risk for sure, and I wouldn't rule out eventually getting to ENH.

 

[Kmlwx]

Just now, high risk said:

      all 3 hires windows look terrific for later today.  

Yeah things seem to be improving. 

I think we get a slight for tomorrow too based on the latest data. 

[Kmlwx]

Just now, high risk said:

         Yes!    Based on the 12z HRRR and NAM nest, tomorrow is a SLGT risk for sure, and I wouldn't rule out eventually getting to ENH.

 

Those models seem to indicate some nice supercell potential too. I know it sucks but UD helicity maps look nice. I can see the Columbia Tornado Redux on the NAM nest for tomorrow

[mappy]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Those models seem to indicate some nice supercell potential too. I know it sucks but UD helicity maps look nice. I can see the Columbia Tornado Redux on the NAM nest for tomorrow

Thursday 23z >>>> wednesday 23z 

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Those models seem to indicate some nice supercell potential too. I know it sucks but UD helicity maps look nice. I can see the Columbia Tornado Redux on the NAM nest for tomorrow

       Low-level shear is absolutely way better tomorrow, and the PBL won't be as deep as today.

[Eskimo Joe]

We have some decent mid level lapse rates to our west.  That's good to see.  More sustained updrafts and DCAPE is pushing up as well.  I'm still in for today, but I know the best action is probably more Baltimore than DC.

[Kmlwx]

22 minutes ago, high risk said:

       Low-level shear is absolutely way better tomorrow, and the PBL won't be as deep as today.

I'll mark you down as "in" for a wedge on the mall

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

I'll mark you down as "in" for a wedge on the mall

I don't think today is a tornado day.  It's a wind/hail day.

[high risk]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

I'll mark you down as "in" for a wedge on the mall

         Actually, I'm probably guilty of extracting WAY too much detail out of day 2 model guidance, but 4 out of 5 CAMs this morning (among HRRR, NAM nest, and Hi-Res Windows) show a nice UH track across Howard County tomorrow.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I don't think today is a tornado day.  It's a wind/hail day.

tomorrow  

[high risk]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I don't think today is a tornado day.  It's a wind/hail day.

       today for sure with the weak low-level shear and hot, mixed PBL.     We're talking about tomorrow, when the low-level shear is stronger, and the PBL structure is more favorable.   Not expecting a TOR outbreak, but the potential for a couple of TORs seems reasonable.   

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

       today for sure with the weak low-level shear and hot, mixed PBL.     We're talking about tomorrow, when the low-level shear is stronger, and the PBL structure is more favorable.   Not expecting a TOR outbreak, but the potential for a couple of TORs seems reasonable.   

That's pretty much an outbreak around these parts  - until the next Ivan that is. 

[Derecho!]

6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I'll mark you down as "in" for a wedge on the mall

Well, the main thing is I think you need to start evacuating La Plata now so it's empty by tomorrow afternoon...

[frd]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

       today for sure with the weak low-level shear and hot, mixed PBL.     We're talking about tomorrow, when the low-level shear is stronger, and the PBL structure is more favorable.   Not expecting a TOR outbreak, but the potential for a couple of TORs seems reasonable.   

Great insights, thanks .....With all the media coverage by the local news networks, at least in my viewing area last evening,  a lot of folks are on edge.  Accu-weather was doing detailed play by play on hail cores, trajectories, rotations and other cool visuals. I enjoyed watching it. 

Its been a while where there have been several days in a row of severe weather in my parts, let alone tornadoes, water spouts and baseball size hail up North.   

 

 

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

Great insights, thanks .....With all the media coverage by the local news networks, at least in my viewing area last evening,  a lot of folks are on edge.  Accu-weather was doing detailed play by play on hail cores, trajectories, rotations and other cool visuals. I enjoyed watching it. 

Its been a while where there have been several days in a row of severe weather in my parts, let alone tornadoes, water spouts and baseball size hail up North.   

yesterday was the 12th day in a row of at least 8 or more tornadoes reported. last time that happened was 1980. 

its been an active stretch. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

86 at 11:40, feels like 92.

[yoda]

Off to our west in W VA -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0880.html

Mesoscale Discussion 0880
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1031 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

   Areas affected...West Virginia...far southeast Ohio...far northeast
   Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 291531Z - 291730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to intensify in the coming hours along
   over West Virginia/vicinity ahead of the line storms across southern
   Ohio and northern Kentucky. Severe hail/wind are the main threats
   and a watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Strong mid-level west/southwest flow (upwards of 50
   knots) is currently streaming over Ohio Valley into the Northeast
   per observations/mesoanalysis. A southwest-northeast QLCS has
   developed in the Ohio Valley and continues to move south/east. On
   the eastern edge, the orientation of the QLCS is more perpendicular
   to the west/southwest flow with a warm/moist/unstable airmass
   downstream. Additionally, discrete storms have started to develop in
   West Virginia as thermal/terrain circulations help break the cap
   within the warm sector. Updrafts have struggled to establish ahead
   of the QLCS, but it is likely discrete cells including some
   supercells will develop ahead of the QLCS in moderately
   sheared/buoyant environment (effective bulk shear 35-45
   knots/1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE).

   Severe hail/wind are the primary threats associated with the QLCS
   and discrete storms ahead of the line across much of West
   Virginia/vicinity. Storms will move eastward across the region
   during the afternoon and a watch issuance is possible.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

yesterday was the 12th day in a row of at least 8 or more tornadoes reported. last time that happened was 1980. 

its been an active stretch. 

It sure has mappy. In my region last night I watched the movement of a radar indicated tornado in Cumberland county, NJ.  as it tracked SE across extreme SW New Jersey. This morning I discovered it must have maintained itself or touched down again further SE over the waters near Fortescue, NJ.  A fishing boat captain took this photo. Pretty cool image right there.

 

 

  

[mappy]

Just now, frd said:

It sure has mappy. In my region last night I watched the movement of a radar indicated tornado in Cumberland county, NJ.  as it tracked SE across extreme SW New Jersey. This morning I discovered it must have maintained itself or touched down again further SE over the waters near Fortescue, NJ.  A fishing boat captain took this photo. Pretty cool image right there.

 

 

  

thank you for sharing! thats a great shot. and yeah, some of those storms up north last night were no joke. 

[yoda]

Well that was fast after the MCD was issued -https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0290.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 290
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 AM EDT Wed May 29 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Extreme northeastern Kentucky
     Far western Maryland Panhandle
     Extreme southeastern Ohio
     Much of West Virginia

   * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1150 AM until
     700 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A line of storms approaching the Ohio River will likely
   maintain or increase in intensity this afternoon, and other more
   isolated storm development will be possible across West Virginia. 
   The storm environment favors organized clusters and perhaps some
   supercell structures capable of producing damaging winds and large
   hail.

 

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Well that was fast after the MCD was issued

 

Makes sense given storms already entering that watch area. 

[Eskimo Joe]

37 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

That's pretty much an outbreak around these parts  - until the next Ivan that is. 

Nothing will beat the tornadoes from Ivan.  That's the benchmark for tornadoes in these parts.

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Nothing will beat the tornadoes from Ivan.  That's the benchmark for tornadoes in these parts.

My coworker always tells me his story of driving from this area to Western Maryland (Clear Spring area) and he had to keep stopping for warnings apparently. Wild. 

[Eskimo Joe]

The 12z RAOB from IAD indicated a convective temp of 89°, which most areas are nearing.  The 18z special RAOB should be publicly available around 2:30 pm...going to be interesting to see what it tells.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just to our north and within the hour:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0881.html

[87storms]

unlike yesterday, there's some decent upper level energy moving through later, though there's also some hints of a dc split of sorts.  with the boundary moving south tomorrow, seems like that's another good opportunity, though maybe the last legit one for a few days.

[yoda]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Just to our north and within the hour:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0881.html

Looks like it will be a red box too

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just to our north and within the hour:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0881.html

Match was lit up here in PA over the past hour. Storms are firing quickly in the mountains north of UNV...

[Eskimo Joe]

We really are looking pretty good down to I-66(ish).  Good sunshine, decent dews, decent shear, good mid and low level lapse rates.