2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

Cell near Slate Lick, PA is looking FIERCE right now

[batmanbrad]

you don't often see potential for baseball size hail in this part of the country... this warning's got TOR potential included in it as well.

 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
PAC005-019-031-121-281945-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0071.190528T1854Z-190528T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
254 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern Venango County in northwestern Pennsylvania...
  Northeastern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania...
  Northwestern Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania...
  Southwestern Clarion County in west central Pennsylvania...

* Until 345 PM EDT.

* At 253 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles southwest
  of Sugarcreek, or 9 miles southwest of Franklin, moving southeast
  at 35 mph.

  This is a very dangerous storm.

  HAZARD...Destructive, baseball-size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured.
           Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs,
           siding, and vehicles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Knox...                           Parker...
  Sligo...                          Emlenton...
  Clintonville...                   St. Petersburg...
  Eau Claire...                     Kennerdell...
  Callensburg...                    Foxburg...
  Cherry Valley...                  Cranberry Township...

This includes  Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 34
and 57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Tornadoes can develop unexpectedly from severe thunderstorms. If a
tornado is reported, move to a basement or small, central room in a
sturdy structure.

Large hail has been reported! Seek shelter indoors immediately and
stay away from windows!

This storm has a history of producing damaging wind gusts. Move
indoors immediately and stay away from windows!

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for northwestern
and west central Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4130 7948 4111 7947 4103 7957 4124 7997
      4129 8000 4133 8000 4135 7998
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 301DEG 31KT 4130 7996

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

[high risk]

10 minutes ago, biodhokie said:

I think you move High Risk into a box of his own into the Ian/Ellinwood slot. He would be the most like them that consistently post.

           Thanks, but I'm more easily impressed than they are.    

[Kmlwx]

Imagine if our radar tomorrow looks anything close to how PIT looks right now. 

[Subtropics]

59 minutes ago, SENC said:

Tornado Watch..

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 274 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western New Jersey Extreme east central Ohio Pennsylvania The extreme northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from Ohio into Pennsylvania, and storms will spread generally eastward through this evening. The storm environment will be favorable for supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. A more favorable environment for tornadoes is expected across northern and eastern Pennsylvania into western New Jersey as the low levels destabilize. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Franklin PA to 35 miles north northeast of Trenton NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

Welcome to the forum. You're a legend for riding out Florence when it was progged to be a Cat 5 and you live on the beach.

[southmdwatcher]

North of Baltimore, and northeastward through Philadelphia to central NJ could have quite a rough evening. Storm mode looks to stay discrete as storms continue to move east southeast towards the areas of best parameters as the day/evening progresses. Tomorrow could be quite a rough day in our area. 

[09-10 analogy]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

You're closer to the forcing and multiple models carry some sort of cells or complex through your area. SEPA has a little mini tornado allery IIRC. 

I seem to remember seeing one tornado-incidence recurrence map that had a lollipop of enhanced frequency to the north of the Bay, taking in places like York and Lancaster, maybe extending south of the M/D line, but not as far as the DC metro (may have glanced the Baltimore metro to the north and east). But that map didn't have any similar lollipop over, say, La Plata, so take it for what it's worth. Maybe the map predated 2002. 

[yoda]

I might stay up to see the new Day 1 tonight lol

[Amped]

You rarely see this many discrete cells anywhere in the Northeast or mid Atlantic.

[southmdwatcher]

Today seems to be a discrete storm mode, question for us will be if that can occur tomorrow and hold on for an evening Bay breeze or low level jet?

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

You rarely see this many discrete cells anywhere in the Northeast or mid Atlantic.

Storms following similar paths too. Quite the radar image on the KCCX radar. 

[Kmlwx]

How long until Yoda asks if a moderate is possible tomorrow (or me)

[yoda]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

How long until Yoda asks if a moderate is possible tomorrow (or me)

Refreshing the 18z NAM soundings

[high risk]

4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

How long until Yoda asks if a moderate is possible tomorrow (or me)

          I don't see tomorrow as a MDT risk day here.    Comparing the supercell parade in PA today, 

                     1)  The overall strength of the wind field in the column will be weaker here tomorrow

                     2)   The low-level shear won't be nearly as strong

                     3)   We are going to be much hotter tomorrow than in PA today, meaning that any supercells will gust out and lead to upscale growth.   I just don't think we'll have a fully discrete mode.

                 There will be SVR around, but the ENH covers the threat pretty well.

     

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Refreshing the 18z NAM soundings

I like to build suspense and wait until the run is done. lol

[yoda]

18z NAM NEST looks interesting... sups at 20z?

[high risk]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z NAM NEST looks interesting... sups at 20z?

         perhaps some modest supercell structure, but the low level wind profile is meh, and the 88/70 environment would cause it to quickly gust out.

[Subtropics]

22 minutes ago, high risk said:

         perhaps some modest supercell structure, but the low level wind profile is meh, and the 88/70 environment would cause it to quickly gust out.

Dare we start saying the D word?

[high risk]

1 minute ago, Subtropics said:

Dare we start saying the D word?

                  No.

[JakkelWx]

89/78 here in the rotisserie zone. Supercell composite values are pretty decent down here, wouldn't be surprised if a nighttime/evening storm comes around

[JakkelWx]

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

78 dew ...dam*  that's real soupy

Primed for a late evening storm. MLCAPE values are up to 2500 J/kg and the lifted indices are up to -7.. but I'm curious to see what parameters show if there's lifting, or are we just wasting the juiced atmosphere away

[high risk]

11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice line  depicted on the latest 3k for this evening dropping south out of Pa .  Much improved from 12z . It weakens as it enters Md but I'm betting it's too quick and with such a soupy airmass 

 

       yeah, huge discrepancy between 18z NAM3 and recent HRRR runs.

[JakkelWx]

I like the cell popping up in NE MD. Already have -60C cloud tops over a small area. NE MD PUMMELED

[yoda]

Hmmm

Mesoscale Discussion 0861
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0434 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of northern Virginia into Maryland and
   Delaware

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 274...

   Valid 282134Z - 282300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 274 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe potential increasing across portions of eastern
   Maryland into Delaware and southern New Jersey, both with supercells
   approaching from the northwest in Pennsylvania, and with the
   initiation of discrete convection along the Maryland border. Large
   hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns, but an
   isolated tornado is also possible.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures are in progress across
   central Pennsylvania, several with a history of severe hail and
   damaging wind gusts. These storms will continue to propagate
   southeastward into an environment characterized by moderate
   instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and adequate deep-layer shear
   (bulk effective shear values of 40-50 knots). Low-level speed and
   directional shear are adequate for supporting a continuance of
   supercell structures given the moderate buoyancy present, though the
   overall magnitudes of low-level shear suggests that large hail will
   be the main threats. A few stones may exceed 2.0 inches in diameter
   as well. Rain/hail loaded downdrafts may also induced damaging wind
   gusts. One of the stronger, more sustained supercell structures may
   also spawn a tornado or two, especially with storms farther to the
   northeast, where low-level directional shear is slightly more
   favorable for supporting sustained, low-level rotation.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

[yoda]

For our DE and MD peeps who are in PHL CWA but post here

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 274
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
533 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019

DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-009-011-033-290200-
/O.EXA.KPHI.TO.A.0274.000000T0000Z-190529T0200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 274 TO
INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING

IN DELAWARE THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL DELAWARE

KENT

IN NORTHERN DELAWARE

NEW CASTLE

IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE

SUSSEX

IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND

CAROLINE              CECIL                 KENT
QUEEN ANNE`S          TALBOT

IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

ATLANTIC              CAPE MAY              CUMBERLAND
SALEM

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ATLANTIC CITY, CENTREVILLE,
CHESTERTOWN, DENTON, DOVER, EASTON, ELKTON, GEORGETOWN,
HAMMONTON, MILLVILLE, OCEAN CITY, PENNSVILLE, AND WILMINGTON.

[LP08]

Scary situation just to the north side of Scranton.  Lots of my wife’s family is there and a couplet moved just north of them.  Whew.

[SENC]

3 hours ago, Subtropics said:

Welcome to the forum. You're a legend for riding out Florence when it was progged to be a Cat 5 and you live on the beach.

Thank You! for  the warm Welcome!  Next 'Cat5" I'll still be "living on the Beach" to greet the next one! 

[yoda]

I'm sure this has been discussed in this thread already... but this is super awesome 

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So this is cool.  You can plot the SPC outlooks over a period of time by WFO/State/County.  It gives the highest risk level for each day.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=201

A lot of neat features besides the outlooks to play with in the dropdown box, too.

 

[JakkelWx]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like Hrrr finally seeing the possible remnant storms reaching northern Md in the next 1 ro 2 hours its last couple runs

Still some impressive dynamics around the Chesapeake and Delmarva area. There's still a lot of untapped energy in the areas where D.C and Balt have largely missed the action to the north. Wouldn't be surprised if we get woken up over the next few hours

[JakkelWx]

Still in the mid 80s in Baltimore. At 10 PM.