2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

Just now, yoda said:

Tornado Watch issued to our north... no LWX counties in it... 50/20 probs on TOR

Wow - that's essentially every county in PA except for two three

[yoda]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Wow - that's essentially every county in PA except for two

Guess Eskimo Joe loses $20

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, yoda said:

Guess Eskimo Joe loses $20

 

You accept paypal? 

[yoda]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

You accept paypal? 

IF (a big IF) something gets toward the M/D line, I could see LWX adding a few counties to the watch later this evening... or is it SPC that does that?

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Guess Eskimo Joe loses $20

 

I'm telling you - I think I'm getting more pessimistic than EJ. Seems to be working for our storm odds this year...

[mappy]

a 50/20 watch to our north

lol doubt we see much today

[H2O]

y'all need to adopt the "don't expect sh*t, be happy when it surprises" mentality.

[87storms]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm in for a big cell or two and that's it, but if you get under one good luck.  Going to be a few happy campers and many people left out.

that's almost always the case with thunderstorms here, unless we're dealing with a ramped up cold front or derecho.

[biodhokie]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

y'all need to adopt the "don't expect sh*t, be happy when it surprises" mentality.

That's not fun though. I want to expect nothing and still be disappointed.

[Amped]

I feel bad for those 3 counties in PA not included in the TW.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

I feel bad for those 3 counties in PA not included in the TW.

why? being under a watch doesn't dictate that you will, or will not see, some type of weather. 

[Amped]

Just now, mappy said:

why? being under a watch doesn't dictate that you will, or will not see, some type of weather. 

I was kidding

[high risk]

I'm late to the party, but kmlwx and I are back in synch.     I'm out for today but very much in for tomorrow.     I agree with SPC that the low-level winds are progged to be a bit too crappy (and the boundary will be a bit too hot) for tornadoes, but supercells and line segments are a good bet.

[jacindc]

Just now, high risk said:

I'm late to the party, but kmlwx and I are back in synch.     I'm out for today but very much in for tomorrow.     I agree with SPC that the low-level winds are progged to be a bit too crappy (and the boundary will be a bit too hot) for tornadoes, but supercells and line segments are a good bet.

If tomorrow is a big show, will that lessen the chances of another big show on Thursday? (worried about an outdoor event Thursday evening) Never a good sign when one day's forecasted high is 93 and the next day is 82.

 

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, high risk said:

I'm late to the party, but kmlwx and I are back in synch.     I'm out for today but very much in for tomorrow.     I agree with SPC that the low-level winds are progged to be a bit too crappy (and the boundary will be a bit too hot) for tornadoes, but supercells and line segments are a good bet.

GFS might be running too humid at spots. I saw a small blob up near FDK for tomorrow where the GFS was progging like 6K SBCAPE. I looked at the sounding and it has a 76 dewpoint in the area. Doubt it would be that high. 

[frd]

In regards to what you were saying @mappy about watches ....

I had several Bradford pear trees I had went down a couple years ago, in a storm that did not have even have a warning, quick moving discrete cell, estimated winds of over 70 mph.   

In 30 years only a few watches for my area yielded a severe event. But, I understand and appreciate the reasoning with watches, and it is always best to be prepared. We are talking life,  loved ones and property here.

Kudos the the NWS and the SPC for what they do. 

 

 

[H2O]

One thing is for sure, this area isn't like the midwest.  They can recharge and have day after day of sups and TORS.  We blow it today and get too much then tomorrow is boned.  lol

[Kmlwx]

12z HRRR run (long range) for tomorrow. Tasty. 

 

Meanwhile - the NAM nest seems to have two rounds tomorrow. Looks like it blows up some cells for I-95 and east and then brings a line or cells in from the west later on. 

[87storms]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

12z HRRR run (long range) for tomorrow. Tasty. 

ideal timing, too

[Kmlwx]

Also worth nothing the HRRR continues to have essentially NOTHING south of the M/D line for today. (17z run). I'm completely out for today unless you're in mappyville - and even then probably out. 

[high risk]

7 minutes ago, jacindc said:

If tomorrow is a big show, will that lessen the chances of another big show on Thursday? (worried about an outdoor event Thursday evening) Never a good sign when one day's forecasted high is 93 and the next day is 82.

 

  FWIW, most of the guidance today actually shows us making a run at 90 again on Thursday.    The trigger mechanism for Thursday storms isn't as defined, but there is definitely some threat of storms later in the day (possibly severe).

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, high risk said:

  FWIW, most of the guidance today actually shows us making a run at 90 again on Thursday.    The trigger mechanism for Thursday storms isn't as defined, but there is definitely some threat of storms later in the day (possibly severe).

Yea tomorrow is probably our best shot for anything organized this week.

[jacindc]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

  FWIW, most of the guidance today actually shows us making a run at 90 again on Thursday.    The trigger mechanism for Thursday storms isn't as defined, but there is definitely some threat of storms later in the day (possibly severe).

Yes, sorry, I had meant that the big change in temps I was seeing is Thursday to Friday. I'll go back into my corner and cross my fingers until then. Thanks.

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, frd said:

In regards to what you were saying @mappy about watches ....

I had several Bradford pear trees I had went down a couple years ago, in a storm that did not have even have a warning, quick moving discrete cell, estimated winds of over 70 mph.   

In 30 years only a few watches for my area yielded a severe event. But, I understand and appreciate the reasoning with watches, and it is always best to be prepared. We are talking life,  loved ones and property here.

Kudos the the NWS and the SPC for what they do. 

a small gust of wind will break a bradford pear branch lol they break so easily

4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Also worth nothing the HRRR continues to have essentially NOTHING south of the M/D line for today. (17z run). I'm completely out for today unless you're in mappyville - and even then probably out. 

we ain't seeing anything today man. put your eggs into tomorrows basket

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea tomorrow is probably our best shot for anything organized this week.

Yeah - looks like we lull after these next few days. CIPS is much quieter going forward - not much signature for severe to be seen. 

[Kmlwx]

The cells north of PIT are going to town already. Quick hail markers on them. Should be a fun day in most of PA

[Eskimo Joe]

16 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The cells north of PIT are going to town already. Quick hail markers on them. Should be a fun day in most of PA

Yea that thing went bonkers.  It's a sick looking hail signature.  

[SENC]

Tornado Watch..

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 274 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western New Jersey Extreme east central Ohio Pennsylvania The extreme northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from Ohio into Pennsylvania, and storms will spread generally eastward through this evening. The storm environment will be favorable for supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. A more favorable environment for tornadoes is expected across northern and eastern Pennsylvania into western New Jersey as the low levels destabilize. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Franklin PA to 35 miles north northeast of Trenton NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

[biodhokie]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Winner winner. The system still works, though I may need an update if Ian/Ellinwood never come back lol.

I think you move High Risk into a box of his own into the Ian/Ellinwood slot. He would be the most like them that consistently post.

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, biodhokie said:

I think you move High Risk into a box of his own into the Ian/Ellinwood slot. He would be the most like them that consistently post.

@MN Transplant is also a frequent poster.