2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, yoda said:

Pretty large amount of LWX CWA in the STWatch

Am mobile, what the CAPE, lapse rates and supercell composite like in dc?

[yoda]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-041-
043-510-240000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0218.190523T1700Z-190524T0000Z/

MD
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL         BALTIMORE           CALVERT
CAROLINE             CARROLL             CECIL
CHARLES              FREDERICK           HARFORD
HOWARD               KENT                MONTGOMERY
PRINCE GEORGES       QUEEN ANNE`S        TALBOT
WASHINGTON


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY

 

---

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC013-043-047-059-061-069-079-099-107-113-137-139-153-157-177-
179-187-510-600-610-630-683-685-840-240000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0218.190523T1700Z-190524T0000Z/

VA
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARLINGTON            CLARKE              CULPEPER
FAIRFAX              FAUQUIER            FREDERICK
GREENE               KING GEORGE         LOUDOUN
MADISON              ORANGE              PAGE
PRINCE WILLIAM       RAPPAHANNOCK        SPOTSYLVANIA
STAFFORD             WARREN


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA           FAIRFAX             FALLS CHURCH
FREDERICKSBURG       MANASSAS

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

WVC003-037-065-240000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0218.190523T1700Z-190524T0000Z/

WV
.    WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKELEY             JEFFERSON           MORGAN

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DCC001-240000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0218.190523T1700Z-190524T0000Z/

DC
.    DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Am mobile, what the CAPE, lapse rates and supercell composite like in dc?

         sfc cape 2000-2500 across northern VA.   less to the east, but that will rapidly increase

         supercell composite around 4 or so

         lapse rates in the 6 or so range, with 6.5 upstream

[osfan24]

Line to the west is really booking it. Doesn't look that impressive right now, but maybe it strengthens as it heads east.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

         sfc cape 2000-2500 across northern VA.   less to the east, but that will rapidly increase

         supercell composite around 4 or so

         lapse rates in the 6 or so range, with 6.5 upstream

Thanks. Might be some low topped gusty stuff with minimal lightning?  Whats shear looking like?

[George BM]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Thanks. Might be some low topped gusty stuff with minimal lightning?  Whats shear looking like?

45-55kt effective bulk shear as of 17z  across the region.

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, George BM said:

45-55kt effective bulk shear as of 17z  across the region.

Thanks

[Kmlwx]

First warning out. 

[Eskimo Joe]

This line looks like crap

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

This line looks like crap

If you believe the HRRR past two runs, the warned part of the line could grow upscale and deliver a decent hit to the area between DC and Balt. But HRRR could bust from 1-4 hours out. 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This line looks like crap

short terms models have been advertising that all day. i think most will see better stuff when the front moves through later. unless this line picks up some steam

[H2O]

this is just the discreet prefrontal squall line that will stabilize the atmosphere just in time for the cold front.

[WxUSAF]

20min gusty showers inbound

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

this is just the discreet prefrontal squall line that will stabilize the atmosphere just in time for the cold front.

so true.

[osfan24]

Line by Hagerstown seems to have strengthened significantly. Curious to see if the rest of the line follows suit.

[Eskimo Joe]

Might salvage a good shelf cloud pic or two from this stuff.

[high risk]

For most of us, I think this will be the show.     And the line is moving into an area with decent shear and improving instability.    I'd expect further intensification.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

For most of us, I think this will be the show.     And the line is moving into an area with decent shear and improving instability.    I'd expect further intensification.

What about this evening that LWX mentioned in their AFD and SPC mentioned in the 1630 OTLK?  Hit and miss storms?

[osfan24]

Line is definitely strengthening, FWIW.

[Eskimo Joe]

Surprised that little blob west of Winchester isnt warned.

[Eskimo Joe]

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 5/23/2019 2:26 PM to 3:00 PM EDT for Montgomery County, MD. https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=34171840

[high risk]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

What about this evening that LWX mentioned in their AFD and SPC mentioned in the 1630 OTLK?  Hit and miss storms?

              With this line being being more widespread than earlier thought, I think it's going to be more effective at wiping out instability over a larger area.   Also, the front isn't getting here until well after dark.    I had said earlier that I thought that the northern-most counties could be in the game around sunset (mainly based on the NAM nest), and maybe that's still possible, but the latest HRRR runs are not excited about the I-95 corridor until you get up into NJ.

[Tater Tot]

It’s already breezy and the sky has that gross white haze. Definitely seems like the kind of day we get these nasty lines.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Not much here.  One or 2 rumbles of thunder and a couple minutes of moderate rain.  Less than .1".   Really needed much more to clear the pollen that has built up the last week.

[Kmlwx]

Echo tops have really started to come up. 

[osfan24]

Northern part of the line seems to have collapsed a bit and is not as organized. Southern part seems to be pretty formidable from Frederick and south.

[mappy]

Just now, wxtrix said:

under a lol warning for a brief downpour and a few rumbles of thunder.  I'll still have to water the flowers tonight.

about what i was expecting. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Quite the notch on the cell heading into MoCo

[Kmlwx]

Is that a hint of a notch south of Point of Rocks?

[high risk]

10 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Northern part of the line seems to have collapsed a bit and is not as organized. Southern part seems to be pretty formidable from Frederick and south.

              northern and northeastern MD are cooler than locations further south, so this makes sense.