Eskimo Joe Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Pretty large amount of LWX CWA in the STWatch Am mobile, what the CAPE, lapse rates and supercell composite like in dc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 100 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-041- 043-510-240000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0218.190523T1700Z-190524T0000Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE`S TALBOT WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 100 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC013-043-047-059-061-069-079-099-107-113-137-139-153-157-177- 179-187-510-600-610-630-683-685-840-240000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0218.190523T1700Z-190524T0000Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON CLARKE CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FREDERICK GREENE KING GEORGE LOUDOUN MADISON ORANGE PAGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD WARREN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG MANASSAS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 100 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WVC003-037-065-240000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0218.190523T1700Z-190524T0000Z/ WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKELEY JEFFERSON MORGAN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 100 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DCC001-240000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0218.190523T1700Z-190524T0000Z/ DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Am mobile, what the CAPE, lapse rates and supercell composite like in dc? sfc cape 2000-2500 across northern VA. less to the east, but that will rapidly increase supercell composite around 4 or so lapse rates in the 6 or so range, with 6.5 upstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Line to the west is really booking it. Doesn't look that impressive right now, but maybe it strengthens as it heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, high risk said: sfc cape 2000-2500 across northern VA. less to the east, but that will rapidly increase supercell composite around 4 or so lapse rates in the 6 or so range, with 6.5 upstream Thanks. Might be some low topped gusty stuff with minimal lightning? Whats shear looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Thanks. Might be some low topped gusty stuff with minimal lightning? Whats shear looking like? 45-55kt effective bulk shear as of 17z across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, George BM said: 45-55kt effective bulk shear as of 17z across the region. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 23, 2019 Author Share Posted May 23, 2019 First warning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 This line looks like crap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 23, 2019 Author Share Posted May 23, 2019 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: This line looks like crap If you believe the HRRR past two runs, the warned part of the line could grow upscale and deliver a decent hit to the area between DC and Balt. But HRRR could bust from 1-4 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This line looks like crap short terms models have been advertising that all day. i think most will see better stuff when the front moves through later. unless this line picks up some steam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 this is just the discreet prefrontal squall line that will stabilize the atmosphere just in time for the cold front. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 20min gusty showers inbound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, H2O said: this is just the discreet prefrontal squall line that will stabilize the atmosphere just in time for the cold front. so true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Line by Hagerstown seems to have strengthened significantly. Curious to see if the rest of the line follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Might salvage a good shelf cloud pic or two from this stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 For most of us, I think this will be the show. And the line is moving into an area with decent shear and improving instability. I'd expect further intensification. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 1 minute ago, high risk said: For most of us, I think this will be the show. And the line is moving into an area with decent shear and improving instability. I'd expect further intensification. What about this evening that LWX mentioned in their AFD and SPC mentioned in the 1630 OTLK? Hit and miss storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Line is definitely strengthening, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Surprised that little blob west of Winchester isnt warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 5/23/2019 2:26 PM to 3:00 PM EDT for Montgomery County, MD. https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=34171840 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, yoda said: What about this evening that LWX mentioned in their AFD and SPC mentioned in the 1630 OTLK? Hit and miss storms? With this line being being more widespread than earlier thought, I think it's going to be more effective at wiping out instability over a larger area. Also, the front isn't getting here until well after dark. I had said earlier that I thought that the northern-most counties could be in the game around sunset (mainly based on the NAM nest), and maybe that's still possible, but the latest HRRR runs are not excited about the I-95 corridor until you get up into NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 It’s already breezy and the sky has that gross white haze. Definitely seems like the kind of day we get these nasty lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Not much here. One or 2 rumbles of thunder and a couple minutes of moderate rain. Less than .1". Really needed much more to clear the pollen that has built up the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 23, 2019 Author Share Posted May 23, 2019 Echo tops have really started to come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Northern part of the line seems to have collapsed a bit and is not as organized. Southern part seems to be pretty formidable from Frederick and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Just now, wxtrix said: under a lol warning for a brief downpour and a few rumbles of thunder. I'll still have to water the flowers tonight. about what i was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Quite the notch on the cell heading into MoCo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 23, 2019 Author Share Posted May 23, 2019 Is that a hint of a notch south of Point of Rocks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Northern part of the line seems to have collapsed a bit and is not as organized. Southern part seems to be pretty formidable from Frederick and south. northern and northeastern MD are cooler than locations further south, so this makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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