2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[87storms]

This next line has more electricity than the earlier one.

[MN Transplant]

Tornadic supercell down in the Norfolk area.  

[frd]

This is pretty cool from Ventrice. 

 

 

 

[Kmlwx]

Slight risk for today. 

[yoda]

6 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Slight risk for today. 

updated morning AFD from LWX:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1037 AM EDT Fri May 17 2019


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak boundary from last night`s Mesoscale Convective System
will be the focal point of developing showers and any
thunderstorms the rest of the day. The amount of clouds breaking
late this morning into this afternoon will dictate how many
gusty thunderstorms develop and how intense the thunderstorms
will become through this afternoon. There is some instability
already with some wind shear; thus, any thunderstorms that
develop this afternoon could produce damaging winds and some
large hail. Our CWA remains in a slight risk through tonight.

Even after the more intense thunderstorms dissipate this
evening, a weak front will remain in place to produce additional
showers forming along it.

[high risk]

Reviewing the morning CAMs, several of them show storms developing in northwest VA or eastern WV and then moving southeast towards the RIC area.    Not a whole lot of signal for the folks in central MD.   I agree with SPC, though, that there is sufficient deep layer shear to support some SVR in any storms that organize.  

[09-10 analogy]

37 minutes ago, high risk said:

Reviewing the morning CAMs, several of them show storms developing in northwest VA or eastern WV and then moving southeast towards the RIC area.    Not a whole lot of signal for the folks in central MD.   I agree with SPC, though, that there is sufficient deep layer shear to support some SVR in any storms that organize.  

Maybe they’ll lay down some kind of boundary?

Yea, I know, “lay down a boundary” is the weenie t-storm equivalent to “backbuilding.”

edit: oh, l see LWX mentioned a boundary in its AFD. But maybe this is a separate batch from the decaying MCS Sterling mentioned?

[Kmlwx]

Sunday afternoon/evening looks like it has potential on the 3km NAM. 

[mappy]

lol storms

[Kmlwx]

I'm punting today. Looks ho hum around here...and for most of the area. 

Sunday on the NAM really looks interesting. We'll see if it holds as we get closer. Nice instability of over 3000 on some of the soundings nearby. Good helicity too. And the LOL UD helicity maps on the end of the 3km run are nice looking. 

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

lol storms

We need to change that lol into a woo

[yoda]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm punting today. Looks ho hum around here...and for most of the area. 

Sunday on the NAM really looks interesting. We'll see if it holds as we get closer. Nice instability of over 3000 on some of the soundings nearby. Good helicity too. And the LOL UD helicity maps on the end of the 3km run are nice looking. 

And SPC doesnt have us outlooked for Sunday lol... does look a little bit intriguing 

[frd]

Wow to Monday for Texas and OK.,  it might be an awesome day. Some signals are really historic for the potential of severe weather and tornadoes out there. 

 

 

 

[Kmlwx]

Sunday doesn't look that impressive anymore locally. But we are close to a slight from SPC. We'll see. 

Meanwhile - looks like Ian and our guys are in for a nice chasecation!

[yoda]

Some decent storms out there today... good amount severe warned

[Eskimo Joe]

25 minutes ago, yoda said:

Some decent storms out there today... good amount severe warned

The Frederick cell is about to transverse it's own outflow boundary and the bay breeze pushing west.  Wonder if that jazzes it back up.

[rollenwiese]

Sat out the Frederick storm in my car downtown, just coming back from a hike. Strong gusty winds, sheets of rain, and towards the end just a few pings of hail on the windshield. Followed by a rainbow to the east. Nice little storm.

[yoda]

Ellicott City cell on radarscope looks like it has a little bit of a hook

[high risk]

23 minutes ago, yoda said:

Ellicott City cell on radarscope looks like it has a little bit of a hook

       the structure was screwy, but I don't think it was a supercell, as the 00z IAD raob wind profile is pretty sad.        Was a pretty storm, though, and I got some small hail in southern Howard County.

[Kmlwx]

I was in Calverton earlier and the lightning off in the distance looked spectacular. 

[high risk]

00z NAM nest and HRRR show a pretty active Sunday late afternoon/early evening in our area with a good amount of storms, especially for those north of Rt 50     Deep layer shear isn't great, but instability is good, and there is some low-level shear.     

edit:   looks like a possible line on the front later Monday when better deep layer shear is in place

 

[yoda]

Whoops by SPC today

https://mobile.twitter.com/jaredwsmith/status/1129944920385564673

[Kmlwx]

0z output from CIPS is not bad looking for our area at the 120hr period. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Could be a sneaky severe day today.  Good CAPE and some shear.

[yoda]

Clear Spring MD about to be crushed

[yoda]

STW till 9pm for NW portions of the LWX CWA 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Clear Spring MD about to be crushed

2 inch hail marker on radarscope and maybe some slight rotation?

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

2 inch hail marker on radarscope and maybe some slight rotation?

Big mts. out there aiding updrafts.  Looks like a US15 and points west kind of day.  Metro areas probably stay dry.

[osfan24]

Everything seems well north and west today and all models from today seemed to indicate that's going to be the case.

[Kmlwx]

Thursday continues to look interesting on CIPS and GFS.