2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[JakkelWx]

One hell of a stormy day already but it looks like this first line is pushing east.

[H2O]

thats says nothing, yoder

[yoda]

Just now, H2O said:

thats says nothing, yoder

For some reason kamala won't let me post (quote it either) the updated 1630z SPC disco so I have to wait for it to come up on the SPC homepage

[Hyphnx]

Clearing out at RIC. Only a few clouds, really warming up.

[yoda]

Now this should work lol

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1105 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

   Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
   OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST NEW
   JERSEY...DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA....

   ...SUMMARY...
   The main threat for severe storms today will be from eastern North
   Carolina to southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey,
   including the DC, Tidewater and Delmarva regions.  Damaging wind
   should be the most common event, though a few tornadoes also are
   possible.

   ...Mid Atlantic Region...
   Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough approaching the Mid
   Atlantic region, with large midlevel height falls forecast across
   the region this afternoon.  Visible imagery shows broken cloud cover
   throughout the area, allowing daytime heating and destabilization to
   occur.  This should result in widespread thunderstorm activity later
   today, with the potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

   The primary severe threat appears to be associated with a line of
   convection currently over eastern WV and western PA.  This activity
   will intensify by mid-afternoon as it tracks into the warmer and
   more unstable air across central VA/PA.  Strong westerly flow aloft
   and considerable low-level shear will promote bowing segments in the
   line capable of damaging wind gusts.  A few tornadoes are also
   possible along the line.  Other storms are expected to form ahead of
   the line in a weakly capped environment, also posing a risk of
   damaging winds and perhaps tornadoes.  Have upgraded to ENH risk to
   cover this region for this afternoon.  Please refer to MCD #451 for
   further details.

[Eskimo Joe]

ENH is for the 30% wind...tornado and hail remain the same.

[yoda]

25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Warm front looks pretty potent...leaning 60/40 on tornado watch especially if we manage more sun.

Probably will be a tornado watch IMO (thinking more like 80/20)... should be partly to mostly cloudy with sunshine for at least another hour looking a sat

[Stormpc]

Just got into the best storm I have witnessed in several years. Barely clipped by that discrete cell east of the main line south of Virginia Beach in North East North Carolina. Winds were easily 50 to 60 miles per hour with pea sized hail and cloud-to-ground lightning. Lasted about 90 seconds.

[Eskimo Joe]

37 minutes ago, yoda said:

Probably will be a tornado watch IMO (thinking more like 80/20)... should be partly to mostly cloudy with sunshine for at least another hour looking a sat

Radar popping quick 

[NorthArlington101]

Looks like another day of rain, maybe a thunderclap in CHO.

[yoda]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Radar popping quick 

Surprised no watchbox yet... has to be coming shortly

[yoda]

STW for CHO and Albemarle county

[Eskimo Joe]

First SVR coming out for CHO

[yoda]

looks like some rotation down in Albemarle county

[NorthArlington101]

STW for CHO and Albemarle county

It’s pouring rain but can’t say I’ve heard thunder/seen lightning. No gustier than it has been all day.

[Eskimo Joe]

Latest meso analysis shows were primed for a tornado risk this afternoon.

[Eskimo Joe]

Red Box going out.

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest meso analysis shows were primed for a tornado risk this afternoon.

You seem awfully bullish. Who are you? 

[yoda]

Tornado Watch till 9pm

40/20 tor probs with the watch

[87storms]

we do sunshine before storms fairly well here (similar to the sunshine we get instead of the digital snow we get 5 days out), so i'm in.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Tornado Watch till 9pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 105
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   135 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Delaware
     Central and Eastern Maryland
     Southern New Jersey
     Central and Southeast Pennsylvania
     Northeast Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
     900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify along a cold front this
   afternoon and spread across the watch area, posing a risk of
   damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

[Rtd208]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest meso analysis shows were primed for a tornado risk this afternoon.

Who are you and what did you do with the real Eskimo Joe?

[JakkelWx]

Law enforcement reported multiple trees down in Albemarle Cty. 

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MADISON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN CULPEPER AND CENTRAL
SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES...

At 151 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Madison to near Boswells Tavern, moving east at
45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported multiple trees down in Albemarle
         County.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Come on, people. I have a scale and everything for this. 

When EJ has gripes
Prepare for some swipes
When EJ is hype
Conditions are ripe

So this would be the ENH on the MA scale you made, yes?

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Best risk for a good storm is probably east of I-95 though.

[H2O]

not much doing so far near that blob just SW of the beltway near Fairfax/Burke

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Best risk for a good storm is probably east of I-95 though.

And he's back  

[MN Transplant]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

not much doing so far near that blob just SW of the beltway near Fairfax/Burke

We do have thunder, which is nice to hear.

[yoda]

Are those mini hooks entering Fairfax or is the radar playing tricks?

ETA:  Down by Lake Ridge

[87storms]

looks like these storms have some electricity as well.  more so with the cells back towards reston.