2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

Still looks like Monday holds some marginal potential for severe. Probably a good shot at a few rumbles of thunder at least. LWX mentions storms in their PM forecast discussion. Nothing looks particularly robust - so certainly no outbreaks or widespread severe for us. 

[yoda]

On 4/3/2019 at 2:59 PM, Kmlwx said:

Still looks like Monday holds some marginal potential for severe. Probably a good shot at a few rumbles of thunder at least. LWX mentions storms in their PM forecast discussion. Nothing looks particularly robust - so certainly no outbreaks or widespread severe for us. 

LWX is a bit more upbeat about maybe some strong storms on Monday per the AFD this afternoon 

[yoda]

No talk of tomorrow or Friday?

[Kmlwx]

46 minutes ago, yoda said:

No talk of tomorrow or Friday?

Meh

[yoda]

9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Meh

SPC mentions risk for Friday for us in their 4-8 day OTLK... and LWX mentions it in their AFD

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

SPC mentions risk for Friday for us in their 4-8 day OTLK... and LWX mentions it in their AFD

We are still pretty early season. Though I guess La Plata was an April event. 

Friday would seem to me to be the better option for now. 

[high risk]

I had been "way out" on this event, but the 12z NAM3 is making me reconsider, with some impressive signatures much further north than in previous runs along with greater instability and a shear profile that is lacking in low-level shear but would have decent deep-layer shear with a modest increase in sfc winds.     This solution is an outlier for now, but I'll be curious to see whether the HRRR trends in its direction.

[Kmlwx]

16 minutes ago, high risk said:

I had been "way out" on this event, but the 12z NAM3 is making me reconsider, with some impressive signatures much further north than in previous runs along with greater instability and a shear profile that is lacking in low-level shear but would have decent deep-layer shear with a modest increase in sfc winds.     This solution is an outlier for now, but I'll be curious to see whether the HRRR trends in its direction.

Wow - you're right it looks really nice. 

[North Balti Zen]

41 minutes ago, high risk said:

I had been "way out" on this event, but the 12z NAM3 is making me reconsider, with some impressive signatures much further north than in previous runs along with greater instability and a shear profile that is lacking in low-level shear but would have decent deep-layer shear with a modest increase in sfc winds.     This solution is an outlier for now, but I'll be curious to see whether the HRRR trends in its direction.

This for Friday? I am driving to Lynchburg and back that day - maybe will be in the right spot coming through central VA in the afternoon to see some storms perhaps.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

This for Friday? I am driving to Lynchburg and back that day - maybe will be in the right spot coming through central VA in the afternoon to see some storms perhaps.

I think its for this afternoon

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, yoda said:

I think its for this afternoon

Rats.

[high risk]

8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

This for Friday? I am driving to Lynchburg and back that day - maybe will be in the right spot coming through central VA in the afternoon to see some storms perhaps.

            yeah, I could have clarified, although the NAM3 only goes to f60......        But while Friday does have some potential,  I am talking about today.

 

   

[NorthArlington101]

No thank you 3k. When UVA wins the championship we need to be able to be outside.

[yoda]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

No thank you 3k. When UVA wins the championship we need to be able to be outside.

I think by 11 PM you should be fine to celebrate lol

[NorthArlington101]

I think by 11 PM you should be fine to celebrate lol

Well celebrations are an all day event. More concerned about standing outside the stadium between 6:00-8:00 to get in the building. Camping outside is less fun in the rain.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Well celebrations are an all day event. More concerned about standing outside the stadium between 6:00-8:00 to get in the building. Camping outside is less fun in the rain.

 

Ah okay.  True... but game doesn't start till like almost 9:30 PM lol

To bring it back on topic -- 3km NAM does look really nice.  The sun has been out for a nice while and temps are warming into the mid 70s already

[frd]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Ah okay.  True... but game doesn't start till like almost 9:30 PM lol

To bring it back on topic -- 3km NAM does look really nice.  The sun has been out for a nice while and temps are warming into the mid 70s already

Yoda, what are your feelings for the Delaware area with storms later today.  Thanks. 

I do see a hazard mention up for the upper Bay to my West. 

[North Balti Zen]

12 minutes ago, high risk said:

            yeah, I could have clarified, although the NAM3 only goes to f60......        But while Friday does have some potential,  I am talking about today.

 

   

<facepalm> yeah, NAM - I know it's range. Wasn't paying attention...two demerits to me. Fingers crossed for something interesting for the drive Friday, too, then.

[high risk]

The key for today appears to be the low-level dew points.   NAM3 moistens us all afternoon, we end up with low/mid 60s dew points by late afternoon and a pretty unstable atmosphere.    HRRR mixes and advects some low dew point air into our region during the afternoon, and we end up in the low 50s by late afternoon.

[wawarriors4]

10 minutes ago, high risk said:

The key for today appears to be the low-level dew points.   NAM3 moistens us all afternoon, we end up with low/mid 60s dew points by late afternoon and a pretty unstable atmosphere.    HRRR mixes and advects some low dew point air into our region during the afternoon, and we end up in the low 50s by late afternoon.

Currently sitting at 81/61 just North of Fredericksburg, interesting to see how it plays out but the NAM3 would make for a loud evening. It has a the feel of thunderstorms later on today, time will tell........

[AmericanWxFreak]

NAM3 looks pretty intriguing for those near DC again

[high risk]

5 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

NAM3 looks pretty intriguing for those near DC again

          It does, but look at the 2m dewpoint field.   It has dew points rocketing up into the 62-64 range as the precip approaches which allows it to blow up the convection.   Actual dew points have been falling this afternoon, more in line with what the HRRR is showing.

[AmericanWxFreak]

Just now, high risk said:

          It does, but look at the 2m dewpoint field.   It has dew points rocketing up into the 62-64 range as the precip approaches which allows it to blow up the convection.   Actual dew points have been falling this afternoon, more in line with what the HRRR is showing.

hmmmm - thanks for pointing that out. sounds like the NAM may be off its rocker then 

[wasnow215]

6 hours ago, high risk said:

I had been "way out" on this event, but the 12z NAM3 is making me reconsider, with some impressive signatures much further north than in previous runs along with greater instability and a shear profile that is lacking in low-level shear but would have decent deep-layer shear with a modest increase in sfc winds.     This solution is an outlier for now, but I'll be curious to see whether the HRRR trends in its direction.

18z NAM 3k looks bullish for tonight also for RVA. Around dark looks like biggest risk time no?

[CAPE]

DP here is 62. But even here I suspect the drier air will work in, limiting convection. Looks like areas just to my south might get some decent t-storms though.

[yoda]

STW down in Albermarle County suggests hail quarter to golf ball sized reported by trained spotters 

[yoda]

LWX seems to think Friday could be intriguing based off their afternoon AFD

[nw baltimore wx]

A few rumbles of thunder, gusty winds, and heavy downpour here, but oddly enough, the LWX radar didn't show anything above my location.

[CAPE]

Dark skies and rumbling just to my west. Relatively small cell so odds are it will miss. As expected most of the good stuff firing to the south.

[Kmlwx]

Friday will probably be all about the CAPE. If the CAPE is too low it'll probably be a pencil thin line of gusty showers.