2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

ahh, you did say 1-95 corridor. my bad. 

i have a hard time believe that slug of moisture south of DC won't hit I-95

[smokeybandit]

Yeah radar does look a bit beefier than the HRRR-dar

[MN Transplant]

Just now, smokeybandit said:

Yeah radar does look a bit beefier than the HRRR-dar

The HRRR is almost never going to be able to nail the exact swaths of precip, so it is best to take it with a grain of salt.  The thing that put a damper on any "fun" around DC in the 16z run was the stabilization of the atmosphere ahead of the main line, which gets killed off.

 

17z on CoD is already more impressive with the cells that pop up after this initial batch.

 

 

[smokeybandit]

17z looks a bit more in line with radar

[Deer Whisperer]

I’m currently down in Florida somewhere between Jacksonville and vero beach (i know, very specific). It’s absolutely dumping right now, but barely any wind

[Stormpc]

6 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

I’m currently down in Florida somewhere between Jacksonville and vero beach (i know, very specific). It’s absolutely dumping right now, but barely any wind

That's like saying you are somewhere between Washington DC and New York City. I'm embarrassed for you.

[Eskimo Joe]

Satellite and surface obs in SW VA and western NC show the airmass recovering back into the lower to mid 70s.  If that materializes further northeast into the greater DC and Baltimore area later this afternoon that could bode well for a decent line of storm.  

[Hyphnx]

Clouds seem to be thinning out at RIC

[Stormpc]

It's actually the brightest it has been all day here in Woodbridge with the rain coming to an end. I can already see breaks in the clouds to the Southwest.

[wawarriors4]

10 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

It's actually the brightest it has been all day here in Woodbridge with the rain coming to an end. I can already see breaks in the clouds to the Southwest.

Yeah, blue sky showing up around Fredericksburg, temp is already back up to 73

[southmdwatcher]

I am in Alexandria and the sun is trying to break through here right now as well. 

[87storms]

definitely an underperformer with the first round.  rain seems even lighter than radar depictions.  i think it's up to round 2 to deliver.  might need some breaks in the clouds to make this happen.

[wxdude64]

Over 1.25 so far today here, just had a mean looking storm roll overhead. LOTS of low hanging spinning clouds and winds gusted to 41 mph. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Area near Clinton looks interesting 

[87storms]

getting some decent downpours now, but no real storminess.  i'm all in for round 2.

[Eskimo Joe]

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN TENNESSEE, WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. ALOFT, CLOSED
LOW IS NEAR MEMPHIS. 

AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT, SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR PITTSBURGH, PUSHING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE TONIGHT. CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO MIGRATE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS SO FAR BEEN RELATIVELY BENIGN,
WITH LOW-LEVEL STABILITY THANKS TO THE MORNING CLOUDS KEEPING 
SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AS FAR AS WE KNOW
AS OF THIS WRITING. THUS, IT APPEARS THE FIRST ROUND IS MORE OF
A PRIMER, SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
ALLOWING TIME FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH FOR A BIT AFTER IT
PASS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MAIN LINE, CURRENTLY IN 
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA, MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION 
THIS EVENING. WITH VERY HIGH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, AND 850 MB 
WINDS NEAR 70 KNOTS, ANY SUN SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE 
THE LOW LEVELS AND ALLOW FOR ENHANCED UPDRAFTS, POTENTIALLY 
BRINGING SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE THIS EVENING.
THIS ALSO ENHANCES THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THUS, TORNADO WATCH 
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH 
THROUGH 5 AM. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SEEMS TO SHIFT TOWARDS
MORE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF
STORMS, A TORNADO COULD STILL NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT. 

AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO THE
50S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

[MN Transplant]

About a quarter inch so far.  Does look like some clearing coming in 1-2 hours via the visible satellite.

[Hyphnx]

Sun peeking out at RIC

[caviman2201]

There was definitely some low rotating scud and strong gusts that just moved through Bowie... had a nice view of it coming in from the SW facing 4th floor of my office building.

[mappy]

My other half just emailed asking of this was it in terms of severe  

[Hyphnx]

2nd round of storms seem to be speeding up faster than we thought

[Eskimo Joe]

Several tornado warnings in NC where the sun came out.  Good to see breaks occurring on visible satellite starting even up towards the panhandle of WV.  Looks like the line is starting to form along the spine of the Appalachian Mts.

[NorthArlington101]

Never got any sun in Charlottesville. Not sure how interesting the line will be here.

[87storms]

i'm generalizing, but i always feel like our best severe events are preceded by sunshine, light winds...basically the calm before the storm.  i don't know why that is, but it seems to hold true for a lot of potential setups.  i don't like seeing clouds or breezy conditions before what's supposed to be severe storm chances.  not saying we can't do severe without typical summer day conditions, but we really need things to destabilize and/or have a nice vort pass to get anything interesting here it seems.

[LeesburgWx]

Sun is peeking through here now. Can it last?

[yoda]

Guess we are watching the storms in S VA right now moving NE

[yoda]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0408.html

Mesoscale Discussion 0408
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

   Areas affected...DC...VA...MD...WV

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 90...

   Valid 192032Z - 192130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 90 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat should increase across ww90 over the next
   few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent appears
   to be approaching the southern portions of ww90. Multiple long-lived
   supercells have evolved ahead of a broken squall line across
   northern NC into southern VA. This convective regime is expected to
   shift north into the southern portions of ww90 within the next few
   hours. Tornado threat will be primarily confined to the discrete
   supercells; however, brief squall-line tornadoes could be noted
   within an otherwise gusty squall line. Severe threat should spread
   from south to north into the early evening hours.

   ..Darrow.. 04/19/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

 

[CAPE]

Some showers moving through here now. Doesn't look awfully impressive on radar. I think the second round will be more robust further SW and west, and then possibly right along the coast. Might be a bit in between here. Hoping for a half inch of rain to keep the soil moist. Never expected this to be anything like the Sunday night event. Got 1.2" from that with lots of T&L and gusty winds, with some isolated heavy tree damage/power outages here and there. 

[NorthArlington101]

Storm coming up into CHO seems to have decent rotation, but tough to tell given the radar hole.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Decent looking storm