2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[George BM]

Just now, Steve25 said:

Random question for you guys. Do you know of a site where I can find radar loops from any point in the past? I know on Wunderground they used to allow you to search the past on radar but I can't seem to be able to do it anymore. 

weather.us

[George BM]

IAD just got 0.23" of rain in one minute between 3:29pm and 3:30pm edt!

 

[MN Transplant]

Fairfax City looks like the place to be.

 

[yoda]

What is that showing?  Rainfall rate?

[Steve25]

7 minutes ago, George BM said:

weather.us

Thank you very much!

[midatlanticweather]

Earlier Tweet from NWS Sterling! Half an inch of rain in 3 minutes! 

 

[midatlanticweather]

 

[MN Transplant]

16 minutes ago, yoda said:

What is that showing?  Rainfall rate?

Effectively.

https://www.radarscope.app/guide/radarscope-products-dual-polarization

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

@mattie g incoming severe tstorm 

 Negative, yoda. Normal service resumed.

[jbakerman]

3 hours ago, mattie g said:

 Negative, yoda. Normal service resumed.

Today's evasive storm maneuvers were a work of art to miss Burke in the way it did... 

[87storms]

17 hours ago, Steve25 said:

Random question for you guys. Do you know of a site where I can find radar loops from any point in the past? I know on Wunderground they used to allow you to search the past on radar but I can't seem to be able to do it anymore. 

this is composite and not great for zooming in on small scale events, but it's another option.  i use it mostly for past winter storms or anything large scale:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2014&month=2&day=12&hour=0&minute=0

[Kmlwx]

Maybe an isolated shot at some severe this week. 

[JakkelWx]

5,000 J/kg CAPE over southern Delmarva. Also some towering cumulus to my east and I can feel the instability in the air. Best chance for convection IMO is across the state line as the cumulus field starts here east.

[yoda]

6 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Maybe an isolated shot at some severe this week. 

Afternoon AFD seems to suggest chance on Tuesday to Thursday

[southmdwatcher]

Our region is upgraded to Slight Risk

[George BM]

1630z update put us in a SLGT risk for today.

...Northern VA and vicinity this afternoon...
   A small thunderstorm cluster and diffuse MCV will move eastward from
   the eastern WV Panhandle across northern VA/MD this afternoon. 
   Surface heating in advance of this minor wave will contribute to
   moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg), and some loose clustering
   of storms is expected this afternoon.  Steep low-level lapse rates
   and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg will favor occasional downbursts with some
   potential for wind damage. 

[Eskimo Joe]

I just managed to get a copy of AWIPS II to work on my laptop...just in time for some woostorms

[yoda]

STW out in E WV in Northern Grant county for hail to half dollars and winds to 60mph

[high risk]

CAPE is good, and shear is marginal, but the combo overall is ok-ish, so I understand the slight risk.     But it sure would be nice to see some better signals in the hi-res guidance.   Maybe they're missing the potential impact of the MCV moving east, but they're certainly overall uninspiring (except for the NSSL-WRF).   

[mattie g]

23 minutes ago, high risk said:

CAPE is good, and shear is marginal, but the combo overall is ok-ish, so I understand the slight risk.     But it sure would be nice to see some better signals in the hi-res guidance.   Maybe they're missing the potential impact of the MCV moving east, but they're certainly overall uninspiring (except for the NSSL-WRF).   

Then that's the one we go with.

[Kmlwx]

17z HRRR is pretty much missing a bunch of the ongoing activity. We'll see if the 18z looks different. 

[mappy]

i have forgotten what a storm is like. its been a 84 years... 

[smokeybandit]

It's been 84 years and fifteen days
Since you took your storms away
I go out every night and sleep all day
Since you took your storms away

[Rhino16]

Shelf cloud about to pass overhead...

[midatlanticweather]

Storms around! Some "severe" 

 

[Stormfly]

Enhanced risk tomorrow!

[George BM]

 

Oh yeah... this thread exists.

[yoda]

Bump for severe weather risk tomorrow night into Sunday morning per SPC Day 2 OTLK (yes, MRGL risk, but our first chance is here!)

@high risk thoughts?  Most of us will probably be sleeping anyway lol

1730 Day 2 map and short disco is below... guess we use this for 2020?  Or does @Kmlwx want to make a new thread for the new year?

 

 

Quote

...Carolinas north into VA/MD...
   The latest model guidance shows at least weak instability (MUCAPE
   ranging from 250 J/kg north to 1000 J/kg south) as flow strengthens
   during the evening into the overnight.  CAM guidance suggests the
   possibility for a re-invigoration of storms east of the Appalachians
   as low-middle 60s surface dewpoints infiltrate the Carolina/VA
   Piedmont.  Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with this
   activity during the 04-12z period.

[H2O]

lol

[yoda]

Its too bad we have next to zero MLCAPE/instability... shear is excellent and low level shear is silly good