2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[Steve25]

8 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

 

Worst forecast bust ever. Pretty much went from ENH to MRGL in just 12 hours.

I once saw them up forecasted snow totals from 6 inches to 24 inches in 8 hours, and then we wound up getting nothing due to marginal temperatures lol. I don't think they will ever have a bigger forecast bust than that. 

[showmethesnow]

2 hours ago, H2O said:

and never go against clouds.  Clouds are the strongest card you can get in Hearthstone.  And Pokemon.  And D&D.  And the Fog.  Clouds kill

Can picture you as a D & D guy... but Pokemon? 

[Mrs.J]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

I was 45 min early.  Filtered sun now.  Its on like Donkey Kong

Yep just came here to say the sun is out and can start to see blue skies. Currently 75/79

[Winter Wizard]

Writing was on the wall last night for this to underperform. The Ohio Valley shortwave was much farther south and less robust than CAMs guidance showed 24 hours ago. GFS actually caught on to this first followed by the HRRR and finally the NAM. Persistent cloud cover has greatly limited our instability - CAPE is less than 1000 J/KG for most N of DC at the moment. For southern Virginia, though, where there has been clearing, CAPE is over 3000 J/KG and there is sufficient speed and directional shear to support isolated supercells. However, the total coverage will be far less than what we expected 24 hours ago.

Unfortunately, this scenario plays out time and time again in this region. I was really looking forward to chasing today after work, oh well 

[Wxdavis5784]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

I once saw them up forecasted snow totals from 6 inches to 24 inches in 8 hours, and then we wound up getting nothing due to marginal temperatures lol. I don't think they will ever have a bigger forecast bust than that. 

Are you forgetting about the March 4-6 2001 ultimate bust?? We went from being forecasted 24-36”+ to zippy in about 8 hours...

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, wdavis5784 said:

Are you forgetting about the March 4-6 2001 ultimate bust?? We went from being forecasted 24-36”+ to zippy in about 8 hours...

You have mentioned the Storm That Must Not Be Named  

[Mrs.J]

39 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Yep just came here to say the sun is out and can start to see blue skies. Currently 75/79

And a 1/2 hr later back to thick clouds. 

[JakkelWx]

10 minutes ago, wdavis5784 said:

Are you forgetting about the March 4-6 2001 ultimate bust?? We went from being forecasted 24-36”+ to zippy in about 8 hours...

Lots of school kid snow day dreams were dashed during the March 2017 snowstorm down here.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

 

Worst forecast bust ever. Pretty much went from ENH to MRGL in just 12 hours.

Yeah I don't get that...did they not factor in cloudy skies in the forecast yesterday? Or were they simply basing it on what it was doing in Tennessee and such?

[JakkelWx]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I don't get that...did they not factor in cloudy skies in the forecast yesterday? Or were they simply basing it on what it was doing in Tennessee and such?

I think they were basing it on Tennessee too much and not enough of the cloud cover. Based on looking at yesterday evening's satellite, the cloud debris was gonna be a problem and they missed it.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

I think they were basing it on Tennessee too much and not enough of the cloud cover. Based on looking at yesterday evening's satellite, the cloud debris was gonna be a problem and they missed it.

Now was the cloud debris a result of those storms out there in TN or was it something else?

[Eskimo Joe]

5 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

 

Worst forecast bust ever. Pretty much went from ENH to MRGL in just 12 hours.

Just like June 13, 2013 when we went from D1 MOD to nada in 2 hours.  Moco had a tornado but that was it. 

[Wxdavis5784]

14 hours ago, yoda said:

You have mentioned the Storm That Must Not Be Named  

Sorry!

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like parts of the region just got upgraded to a D1 SLGT

[midatlanticweather]

This little rotating storm out here looks interesting! Looks to be rotating. Not great structure.. but maybe it will get its act together or fall apart. 

[Eskimo Joe]

25 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

This little rotating storm out here looks interesting! Looks to be rotating. Not great structure.. but maybe it will get its act together or fall apart. 

Just got a SVR (#532 for LWX this calendar year).

Quote

ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
209 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  NORTH CENTRAL FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT.

* AT 208 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MIDDLEBURG,
  OR 15 MILES WEST OF BRAMBLETON, MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES 
           TO FALL. THIS COULD INJURE THOSE OUTDOORS, AS WELL AS 
           DAMAGE HOMES AND VEHICLES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME BLOCKED BY 
           DOWNED TREES. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. 
           UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MIDDLEBURG, OATLANDS, SAINT LOUIS, GLEEDSVILLE, ALDIE, PHILOMONT
  AND HUGHESVILLE.

 

[midatlanticweather]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just got a SVR (#532 for LWX this calendar year).

 

It definitely got its act together

 

[yoda]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like parts of the region just got upgraded to a D1 SLGT

And an okay MCD... no watch likely here but maybe just to our north or NW in PA/W MD

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1744.html

[midatlanticweather]

This thing is a crazy lightning producer! https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;ts=0;z=12;y=39.0308;x=-77.588;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

 

[Eskimo Joe]

That's a legit little cell in Loudoun...probably riding the terrain and some differential heating boundary.  Seems like there's more clearing over NOVA than the MD side of the Potomac.

[Eskimo Joe]

Probably a nice shelf cloud starting to develop from that storm.

[midatlanticweather]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Probably a nice shelf cloud starting to develop from that storm.

Lightning remains insane! 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

It looks like a legit right moving, low topped supercell.  Even the 0.5° BV has 50Kt winds right off the deck.  Impressive.

[midatlanticweather]

25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Probably a nice shelf cloud starting to develop from that storm.

 

[yoda]

@mattie g incoming severe tstorm 

[Eskimo Joe]

IAD gusted to 66 mph...wow

[MN Transplant]

That thing is putting down a ton of rain, too.  

[yoda]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

That thing is putting down a ton of rain, too.  

And it just threw out an outflow boundary looks like on radarscope 

[MN Transplant]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

And it just threw out an outflow boundary looks like on radarscope 

It has weakened some since hitting IAD flush.  Winds are weaker and the other rain indicators are less.  Still a nice cell, though.

[Steve25]

Random question for you guys. Do you know of a site where I can find radar loops from any point in the past? I know on Wunderground they used to allow you to search the past on radar but I can't seem to be able to do it anymore.