2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[MN Transplant]

Nothing indicating widespread severe, but if we get a 2-3"/hr storm over the places that got hit on Monday, that's rough.

[Kmlwx]

10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Nothing indicating widespread severe, but if we get a 2-3"/hr storm over the places that got hit on Monday, that's rough.

Should be a bit faster moving so that might be one thing that prevents massive flooding.

Reflectivity on some of the model output looks good - but yeah seems like an isolated day for actual severe. 

[mappy]

woo storms?

[jewell2188]

11 minutes ago, mappy said:

woo storms?

Cloudy 

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Cloudy 

lol i meant later. sorry should have been more clear. 

[yoda]

30 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Cloudy 

Sunny

[jewell2188]

19 minutes ago, yoda said:

Sunny

It’s About time 

[mappy]

mod risk for excessive rainfall

 

[biodhokie]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

mod risk for excessive rainfall

 

If it's not a biblical rain day, it's a bust. /s

[Eskimo Joe]

Wonder if the MOD rainfall risk is more for antecedent conditions. 

[yoda]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Wonder if the MOD rainfall risk is more for antecedent conditions. 

Maybe a small part of it.  LWX AFD mentioned the following:

Heavy rain is also expected, especially east of our CWA with PWATs
near 2 inches and the potential for slow moving/training storms.
The ground is saturated due to recent storms over DC and
central/southern MD. HREF 3-hr probability max near 3-4 inches,
focused inthe metro corridor, where antecedent conditions are
the most saturated. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect; the
Hydrology section has additional information.

[Kmlwx]

Surprised there's not a pity meso yet with all the pop up general showers and storms around. 

[high risk]

29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wonder if the MOD rainfall risk is more for antecedent conditions. 

      It's the likelihood of rainfall exceeding FFG, and FFG over part of our ahead is 1-2" in a 3h period, so I would agree that there is a 20-50% (as defines the MDT risk) of that happening within 25 miles of a point in the MDT zone.

[Kmlwx]

Mesoscale Discussion 1434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Areas affected...northern VA...MD...DE and southeast PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 111651Z - 111815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity this
afternoon. A few damaging gusts are possible and trends are being
monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop
over the higher terrain of central and northern VA into southeast
PA. Cloud cover across this area has not been as much of a hindrance
compared to areas to the north, and temperatures have warmed into
the mid 80s to low 90s F with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F.
Midlevel lapse rates are rather poor, but this warm and very moist
airmass is resulting in MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This area
lies on the southern periphery of modest effective shear of 20-30
kt, with high PW values approaching 2 inches. Upper forcing for
ascent will modestly increase as the upper shortwave trough shifts
eastward toward the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians later
this afternoon, but overall severity/organization will be limited
somewhat in the absence of steep midlevel lapse rates and strong
deep layer flow. Nevertheless, some forward propagating clusters
will be possible through storm and outflow interactions, which could
result in a few strong/severe gusts through the afternoon.
Convective trends will be monitored and a watch may become necessary
in the next few hours.

..Leitman/Grams.. 07/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
 

[Kmlwx]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1434.html

[H2O]

wooo stormflood!!!!

[MN Transplant]

11 minutes ago, H2O said:

wooo stormflood!!!!

I guess the people who got flooded out in Arlington can hope for trees to come down on their houses so that the insurance company actually foots the bill.

[NorthArlington101]

I guess the people who got flooded out in Arlington can hope for trees to come down on their houses so that the insurance company actually foots the bill.

haha, yep. Nobody has any flood insurance here. County vehicles are down my street now assessing the damage. Bring on the severe!

[JakkelWx]

Getting some towers here travelling home from west Virginia. Over by d.c right now. 

[Subtropics]

Hopefully we can get some 3'' hour rates for multiple hours today. My hope is one day we can get a harvy and florence and get a couple feet of rain over a couple days. 

[MN Transplant]

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

haha, yep. Nobody has any flood insurance here. County vehicles are down my street now assessing the damage. Bring on the severe!

From what I've been reading, even the flood insurance is problematic because the areas that got hit are so localized.  It isn't like big river flooding.

[mappy]

getting split by two cells at work. pouring with T&L north at home, and south. but just some clouds and distant thunder here. 

[87storms]

not sure if this next round will classify as severe, but this cell does have some electricity with it.  crashing thunder in the distance by the 270 split.

[87storms]

hrrr looks healthy towards the end of the evening rush

[Eskimo Joe]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=582&yr=2019

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

First time I have ever seen scud clouds rise vertically!  Impressive storm heading east across the region!

[Sparky]

Looks interesting to my south.

[WVclimo]

Some thunder and lightning with the cell that passed through here last hour.  More noteworthy was the heavy rain rates.  Ended up with 0.79" in about 30 minutes.  Water in the driveway is over ankle deep, indicative of how saturated everything remains after nearly 3" early Monday.

[87storms]

pretty healthy summer storm moving through here.  not a lot of wind (not our strength), but quality torrents and lightning.

[caviman2201]

the cell near Perry Hall looks interesting...