2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Line in PA gusting out and dying off....

We'll have to hope for boundaries to touch off more activity.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

This is the craziest hailstorm i have ever seen!! Quarter sized!!

[smokeybandit]

Waiting for that outflow to get here at least

[yoda]

STW just SE of me for winds to up 70mph 

[frd]

Yet another STW for me.  Wonder if that line weakens before it gets here.  

The most robust part of the line seems to be North of me,  with what looks like a bowing out across extreme Northern Delaware.  Guessing the highest winds up there. 

 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
DEC003-MDC015-029-NJC015-033-PAC029-045-292045-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0166.190629T1959Z-190629T2045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
359 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  New Castle County in northern Delaware...
  Northern Kent County in northeastern Maryland...
  Cecil County in northeastern Maryland...
  Western Salem County in southern New Jersey...
  West central Gloucester County in southern New Jersey...
  Southwestern Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  South central Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 445 PM EDT.

* At 359 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Kennett Square to Glen Westover to Farmington,
  moving southeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Expect considerable
           tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
           roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wilmington, Newark, Middletown, Elkton, Calvert, Chester,
  Pennsville, Carneys Point, Elsmere, Kennett Square, New Castle,
  Penns Grove, Salem, Oxford, North East, Woodstown, Alloway, West
  Grove, Rising Sun and Quinton.

 

[batmanbrad]

watching the cell that was in Damascus (warned) approaching me from the north, may need a bit of a right turn to avoid missing me to the east (I'm just west of Laytonsville)

[frd]

OMG,  got nailed again with even larger hail more than 1 inch.  Incredible.  I am tired now all this weather watching , need a beer or two or three 

[JakkelWx]

Getting absolutely nailed by pop-up cells! Lightning is kinda meh though

[smokeybandit]

Finally some rain.  Doesn't appear to be something that'll last long, but it's pouring

[WEATHER53]

On way up to Baltimore, around 95/32 intersection, car thermo dropped from 101 to 73.  Looks nasty toward Bay Bridge.

[smokeybandit]

94 to 72 in 30 minutes.  Love it.

[JakkelWx]

Mini tropical storm out there.

[Bodhi Cove]

Being on the Bay last Saturday afternoon/evening, with those storms, was a fatal miscalculation.

Numerous rescues. One body found, 3 still missing.

[Kmlwx]

There was some talk of a potential ring of fire pattern in the long range. I haven't looked at it too much - have been busy. 

[Kmlwx]

Slight risk posted for tomorrow. 

[Kmlwx]

The long range HRRR from 12z is VERY good for our area for tomorrow. 

[yoda]

11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The long range HRRR from 12z is VERY good for our area for tomorrow. 

So you are IN for tomorrow?  Good to hear

[Kmlwx]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

So you are IN for tomorrow?  Good to hear

Marginally I guess for now. I don't think it'll be an outbreak. Probably just higher than 50/50 odds of any location getting a boomer. 

[Kmlwx]

Some of the CAMs like the ARW/ARW2/NMM - which have looked pretty weak sauce for prior events this year - look QUITE robust for the region tomorrow. 

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Some of the CAMs like the ARW/ARW2/NMM - which have looked pretty weak sauce for prior events this year - look QUITE robust for the region tomorrow. 

Got any sauce?

[Kmlwx]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Got any sauce?

Just peaked at them over on the TropicalTidbits site. Only had time to give them a quick glance. Work is blech today. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Just peaked at them over on the TropicalTidbits site. Only had time to give them a quick glance. Work is blech today. 

By sauce I meant link.

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

By sauce I meant link.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019071012&fh=6

 

one of 'em

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019071012&fh=6

 

one of 'em

Eh, it's okay for east of 95.

[Kmlwx]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Eh, it's okay for east of 95.

Wasn't speaking for location specifics - more the fact that each time I've looked at them this year they've shown like tiny little cells or nothing at all for most of our events. 

[yoda]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Eh, it's okay for east of 95.

Already calling another bust I see... figures

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Already calling another bust I see... figures

Where did I say that?

[yoda]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Where did I say that?

You are def preparing for it when you said "eh it's okay for east of i95"

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

You are def preparing for it when you said "eh it's okay for east of i95"

Calm down you two.

[yoda]

00z 3km NAM isn't bad for tomorrow... has some good storms in C MD into Baltimore and into parts of S MD... has a line that looks nice -- yes it skips the DC region for those that are going to meh it... 01z/02z HRRR both have some decent storms over the mountains getting ready to move eastward... 00z HRRR extended was better for those in MD than those in DC/VA