2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The HRDPS goes pretty bonkers for this afternoon/evening

The meso guidance this AM has been hinting at one or two beefy cells south of the Potomac with the typical popcorn around them.  We're in Maine for a wedding starting Thursday through the 27th so you can bank on something happening while I'm away.

[Kmlwx]

Latest NAM nest rolling in doesn't look half bad on the satellite view. 

[WeatherShak]

12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Latest NAM nest rolling in doesn't look half bad on the satellite view. 

HRRR also looks to fire up nicely mid afternoon.  

[Kmlwx]

Good news is sunshine appears to be plentiful. 

[yoda]

Morning update from LWX AFD:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1034 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Made some minor tweaks to the POPs and weather with the morning
update. There will be an opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms areawide this afternoon, but focused in on higher
POPs along and east of the Blue Ridge. This is in line with
most of the CAM guidance, and conceptually makes sense given
westerly downslope flow, which could limit storm coverage a bit
immediately in the lee of the Appalachians. Think that storms
will initiate around 2 PM give or take an hour and press toward
the I-95 corridor through the mid-late afternoon. Multiple
rounds of storms are possible, and storms could linger into the
evening hours, especially south and east of I-95. This morning`s
IAD sounding shows a predominantly straight-line hodograph,
with around 40 kts of 0-6 km shear. However, there is a bit of a
weakness in the wind field above 6 km. MLCAPE is expected to
increase to 1000-2000 J/kg by later this afternoon. Given this
parameter space, the convective mode will favor multicell
clusters, along with some marginal supercell structures.
Splitting of the supercells will be possible given the straight
line hodograph. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with
these storms, but a few instances of larger hail can`t be ruled
out with the strongest storms. Flash flooding can`t be ruled
out either, with a slow moving boundary approaching the area,
and winds aloft paralleling the boundary.

[adelphi_sky]

Seeing patches of brown in my lawn. It's getting serious. Time for some soaking rains. Hope this stretch of 4 days of rain does the trick if my lawn is to survive the rest of the summer. 

Hail and wind I can do without though. :-)

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

FWIW, 12z RAOB from IAD has a convective temp of 89°.

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

FWIW, 12z RAOB from IAD has a convective temp of 89°.

Seems likely we'll get there. Sunshine still seems to be ample. 

[Kmlwx]

A few of the stations in the area have ticked the dewpoints down a bit. Still pockets of 70+ but some have come down to the mid 60s if that makes a difference. 

[Kmlwx]

12km NAM for Thursday (at range) looks pretty robust. Bears watching as SPC has been hinting about the timeframe. 

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

12km NAM for Thursday (at range) looks pretty robust. Bears watching as SPC has been hinting about the timeframe. 

Also looks decent for this afternoon around 21z-23z

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

12km NAM for Thursday (at range) looks pretty robust. Bears watching as SPC has been hinting about the timeframe. 

            Yeah, while I do think we'll have some SVR today, the 12z NAM for Thursday would be a TOR day if its solution is correct.

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

            Yeah, while I do think we'll have some SVR today, the 12z NAM for Thursday would be a TOR day if its solution is correct.

[Kmlwx]

Yeah hodographs on the 12z NAM soundings for Thursday look awfully tasty.

[mappy]

14 minutes ago, high risk said:

            Yeah, while I do think we'll have some SVR today, the 12z NAM for Thursday would be a TOR day if its solution is correct.

someone said TOR

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

someone said TOR

     someone said IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT.       

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

     someone said IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT.       

Too late, you said TOR... so you just guaranteed a TOR day

[biodhokie]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

     someone said IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT.       

Too late. Lock it in. WEDGE TIME.

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

     someone said IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT.       

Sorry. The only thing I'm hearing is that we are in for an outbreak. 

[mappy]

20 minutes ago, high risk said:

     someone said IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT.       

EF5 WEDGE ON THE MALL YOU SAY? 

[high risk]

 

     # GFScancel

[yoda]

1630 SPC OTLK a bit more robust for us this afternoon re disco

[JakkelWx]

Winds are calm right now which I think is a good sign. IIRC i vaguely remember someone saying that breezy conditions before storm chances aren't good.

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Winds are calm right now which I think is a good sign. IIRC i vaguely remember someone saying that breezy conditions before storm chances aren't good.

not necessarily -- southern breezes bring in the moisture and humidity, that help leads to storms. its usually situation dependent, not an all or nothing deal. 

[JakkelWx]

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

not necessarily -- southern breezes bring in the moisture and humidity, that help leads to storms. its usually situation dependent, not an all or nothing deal. 

Thanks for the info.

[adelphi_sky]

Looks like storms are gearing up for a strike at the Richmond area. Waiting for some reds to show up west of Front Royal. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Flash Flood Watch being pared back.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Flash Flood Watch being pared back.

what were they this morning? i didn't read the text. 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

what were they this morning? i didn't read the text. 

They were as far south as the 1st row of counties in N VA (Fairfax/Loudoun/Clarke)

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

They were as far south as the 1st row of counties in N VA (Fairfax/Loudoun/Clarke)

ohhh. i guess i never actually looked at the coverage of the watch. oops.