2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Could be an ENH kind of day tomorrow if we arent socked in with debris clouds.

Day of Destruction 

[BlizzardNole]

Wasn't expecting overcast and light rain at mid-day.  Does this impeded severe chances for later today?  I am coming out from under my weather blocking shield and going to Gaithersburg for dinner, and am hoping to see a thunderstorm.

[CAPE]

Plenty of sun here this morning. Still feels pretty decent out there, although the dewpoint is creeping up.

currently 79/64.

[BlizzardNole]

Alright sun coming back out and it's 77/66.  Need to build up come instability.

[Eskimo Joe]

43 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Alright sun coming back out and it's 77/66.  Need to build up come instability.

Not looking good for today.  

[jewell2188]

49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not looking good for today.  

No surprise, cloudy here most of day. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Pity meso https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md1092.html

[MN Transplant]

85/66 at DCA.  DP is in the 70s in my humid garden.

[yoda]

Doubt they will even get here... but might want to watch the storms in W PA moving SE... have had occasional TW's with them

[Mrs.J]

Took this as we were headed out to feed horses. Was to the East of 270. 

[JakkelWx]

Looks like a night-time thunderstorm event on the way

[frd]

53 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Looks like a night-time thunderstorm event on the way

Your thinking that line out in Western PA. keeps together and drops South and East as the evening progresses ?  

Then I believe the general idea is it stalls,  and depending where it stalls you then get that flood threat tomorrow late day and evening.  As mentioned by Mount Holly.

The system later in the week is progged to be a strong one,  the last in the series.  Saturday might be a great beach day. Then I see showers introduced into the forecasts again for Sunday. Not a long break in rainfall if indeed that  is true. 

 

 

[jewell2188]

1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Looks like a night-time thunderstorm event on the way

From where? Nothing remotely close 

[JakkelWx]

11 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

From where? Nothing remotely close 

Storms forming just east of Baltimore right now as an update. For now it looks like only across the bay seems to be getting the action unless the line near pittsburgh holds together which i doubt it will.

[yoda]

From the 0100 OTLK from SPC:

Farther east, the IAD 00Z sounding shows a semi-favorable wind
   profile for severe cellular storms capable of mainly hail, with
   effective SRH around 150 m2/s2. A small time window exists in this
   area for a few severe storms, but the threat will also decrease
   through the evening here. If storms over WV can sustain into this
   area, a few strong wind gusts will be possible.

[H2O]

I’d feel better about storm chances the next couple days if the front was closer

[MN Transplant]

Mid 70s low at DCA.  71/68 here.  Looks like the NAM came around to the HRRR’s idea of more scattered cells rather than something more organized.

[jewell2188]

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Mid 70s low at DCA.  71/68 here.  Looks like the NAM came around to the HRRR’s idea of more scattered cells rather than something more organized.

It seemed 24 hrs ago it could have been a big day today, now the overall setup seems meh 

[Eskimo Joe]

52 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

It seemed 24 hrs ago it could have been a big day today, now the overall setup seems meh 

Yup, another bust.  Was hoping this season would be good but we've struck out again.

[AmericanWxFreak]

53 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yup, another bust.  Was hoping this season would be good but we've struck out again.

Seasons over?!

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, AmericanWxFreak said:

Seasons over?!

We're getting into low shear pulse season...was hoping we'd have a nice regionwide event by now.  Maybe we can get some home brew tropical this year.

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're getting into low shear pulse season...was hoping we'd have a nice regionwide event by now.  Maybe we can get some home brew tropical this year.

June can still be friendly to us - if we can get some decent cells to fire today it could be okay for some area. But yeah - region-wide event today looks unlikely. 

[mappy]

i have my first softball practice in seven years tonight, and honestly i'm a bit nervous about it. so it could rain. i'd be okay with that. 

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

June can still be friendly to us - if we can get some decent cells to fire today it could be okay for some area. But yeah - region-wide event today looks unlikely. 

It absolutely can, but as you and @high risk have documented here, you need a good pulse of energy to kick things off otherwise it's usually confined to the ridge tops.

[H2O]

Tropical storms will provide shear. We will see wedges

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

i have my first softball practice in seven years tonight, and honestly i'm a bit nervous about it. so it could rain. i'd be okay with that. 

Hunt Valley fields?  Always wanted to get back into softball.

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It absolutely can, but as you and @high risk have documented here, you need a good pulse of energy to kick things off otherwise it's usually confined to the ridge tops.

Pattern does seem to look good for multiple days of storms at least within the general area as a whole (not speaking specifically about severe). I don't see any elevated odds for anything like a derecho or big outbreak. CIPS does seem supportive of a severe threat for the next 4-5 days or so, though. 

Give me a nice cluster of storms forming a cold pool. 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hunt Valley fields?  Always wanted to get back into softball.

PM me if interested, the team could use another guy and girl! its rec league stuff up my way. 

[Kmlwx]

The HRDPS goes pretty bonkers for this afternoon/evening

[yoda]

I thought Eskimo Joe would be more complaining about the Flood Watch in effect for him