2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, high risk said:

      Boom!     Actually, one interesting aspect of the NAM nest forecast is that it pops a sfc low later Wednesday night over the eastern shore, and whatever shortwave is causing that leads to a huge response in the low level wind fields.      Instability is iffy, but the hodographs over eastern ME and DE look amazing.     I have big doubts about whether this feature is legit, but there would be a threat of late night TORs east of here if it verified.

Bring it west and drop a wedge in the woods near my parent's house

[mappy]

dāˈrāˌCHō ?

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

dāˈrāˌCHō ?

With embedded wedges every 1-2 miles along the line and minivan sized hail. 

[mappy]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

With embedded wedges every 1-2 miles along the line and minivan sized hail. 

sounds awesome. count me in. 

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

With embedded wedges every 1-2 miles along the line and minivan sized hail. 

Darn, I wanted hail the size of oreos

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Darn, I wanted hail the size of oreos

Planet sized hail. 

[yoda]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Planet sized hail. 

lol

There was an actual report of hail to the size of oreos to NWS... thats where that post came from.  

[87storms]

i would say that going from dry weather to warm/humid/storms in one day is a stretch, but this area is fully capable of it.  we do humidity extremely well.

[southmdwatcher]

We will not have the benefit of good shear for this event, but keep in mind that one of Virginia's best tornado events occurred in August 1993 and was not a tropical induced event.

[high risk]

Can I have my vote back?     Trends in the guidance have been towards a less interesting event tomorrow - looks like a few isolated cells during the late afternoon (with still some SVR potential) and then perhaps more widespread non-severe storms after dark.

[yoda]

Just now, high risk said:

Can I have my vote back?     Trends in the guidance have been towards a less interesting event tomorrow - looks like a few isolated cells during the late afternoon (with still some SVR potential) and then perhaps more widespread non-severe storms after dark.

I was about to say neither one of the NAMs nor the HRRR on their 00z runs looked particularly interesting at all tomorrow afternoon... hopefully it will change for the better tomorrow morning lol

Wouldnt mind some night time storms though to be honest 

[AmericanWxFreak]

SLGT isn't really even close anymore on the new day 1. Meh. 

[H2O]

This is like showing up to the starting line for a race but it was cancelled and you didn't get told.

[Kmlwx]

This is more typical of DC severe - failure to the max. 

[high risk]

HRRR shows storms for a lot of us later today, while the NAM nest does not.    The hi-res windows show both ideas.     It seems to come down to heating:   the HRRR (and other models with aggressive solutions for our area) take us to the upper 80s before the forcing arrives.    The NAM nest keeps us in the lower 80s.     Right now, it seems too cloudy to make it up over 85....

[87storms]

14 minutes ago, high risk said:

HRRR shows storms for a lot of us later today, while the NAM nest does not.    The hi-res windows show both ideas.     It seems to come down to heating:   the HRRR (and other models with aggressive solutions for our area) take us to the upper 80s before the forcing arrives.    The NAM nest keeps us in the lower 80s.     Right now, it seems too cloudy to make it up over 85....

agreed.  bit too cloudy at the moment.  there seem to be some breaks in the clouds to the west, but kinda locked in for now.  hopefully, early to mid afternoon we can get some prolonged breaks, so we're not just dealing with showers moving through later.

[mappy]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[adelphi_sky]

OMG. Another boring day.  Some of us may struggle to even hear thunder. 

[87storms]

2 hours ago, mappy said:

zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

it's a suspect setup for this area, but what's most impressive is how we can go from california weather to relatively standard mid-atlantic in less than 24 hours.

[dailylurker]

I just want rain for my garden.

[Eskimo Joe]

Blue Box until 02:00 UTC for parts of the area.

EDIT:  Calvert, Charles, St. Mary's, MD & City of Fredericksburg, King George, Spotsylvania, Stafford, VA.

[adelphi_sky]

8 minutes ago, 87storms said:

it's a suspect setup for this area, but what's most impressive is how we can go from california weather to relatively standard mid-atlantic in less than 24 hours.

I was going to mention California weather in my previous post but thought I might offend someone. lol  But, I think we all would rather have mid-Atlantic weather as fickle as it may be. 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, adelphi_sky said:

I was going to mention California weather in my previous post but thought I might offend someone. lol  But, I think we all would rather have mid-Atlantic weather as fickle as it may be. 

i love summer here (minus the real brutal days), so i cosign.  that said, if i found a job in cali that paid the bills, i would not complain lol.

[87storms]

8 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I just want rain for my garden.

radar looks pretty decent for that...actually a little better than i expected, though west to east precip is sketchy here, so we'll see how much of it survives downsloping.

[jewell2188]

18 minutes ago, 87storms said:

radar looks pretty decent for that...actually a little better than i expected, though west to east precip is sketchy here, so we'll see how much of it survives downsloping.

It’s been pretty much dying off approaching the I-81 corridor all day. 

[Eskimo Joe]

New Windsor FD in Carroll County has their carnival and fireman's parade tonight at 7pm so I hope this falls apart.

[adelphi_sky]

Yay Richmond and eastern shore?    There's a yellow approaching DC. May get thunder! Woo hoo!

[NorthArlington101]

Heavy pop-up rain shower. Probably the most exciting thing of the day.

[dailylurker]

Looks like we went from possible strong storms to cloudy and boring. Looks like I've got a lot of watering to do in my garden over the next week and probably well beyond. Ugh.. my least favorite season is in full force. 

[yoda]

9 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Looks like we went from possible strong storms to cloudy and boring. Looks like I've got a lot of watering to do in my garden over the next week and probably well beyond. Ugh.. my least favorite season is in full force. 

Actually LWX is talking about flooding in their AFD this afternoon for Sundaybinto next week