2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[MN Transplant]

6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Wyoming has it.

 

 

6 hour forecast from the 3km NAM below (College of Dupage) and the actual sounding above.  A bit more pronounced warm nose from 650-700mb.  Biggest difference to me is that the observational sounding is a good deal drier above the surface.  NAM has the Td at 850 at ~16C, and the actual is 12-13C. 

 

[AmericanWxFreak]

18z HRRR is once again a snooze fest for pretty much everyone but man does it show that line becoming quite fierce as it pushes through NJ

 

EDIT: Well, a nice little pop up in S Carroll so maybe the HRRR is off its rocker 

[high risk]

not gonna lie - that sounding showing less instability than progged (along with the HRRR runs) is giving me concern.     but I'm absolutely not ready to call "bust"

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

not gonna lie - that sounding showing less instability than progged (along with the HRRR runs) is giving me concern.     but I'm absolutely not ready to call "bust"

I just hope we don't end up going 0 for 3. Be nice to track a nice storm rolling through the area even if not my own BY. 

[mappy]

are you guys busting on today? or tomorrow? lol hard to keep track which day you're talking about. 

[Vice-Regent]

8 minutes ago, Tater Tot said:

It's much easier to maintain low expectations about severe around here. I try to steer clear of the place around winter because it's harder not to get your hopes up (plus it's not as fun without DT's rants).

Our climo is turning into an Inland Gulf Coast type. Maybe Arkansas or Eastern Oklahoma where the main show shifts towards the warm season.

[mappy]

also, what did i say earlier? Allentown. 

 

[osfan24]

The radar looks like yesterday if yesterday's activity was just pushed 50 miles south.

[batmanbrad]

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

also, what did i say earlier? Allentown. 

 

TOR warning issued for that cell about 5 min. ago - also mentions 2" hail possible

[mappy]

Just now, batmanbrad said:

TOR warning issued for that cell about 5 min. ago - also mentions 2" hail possible

nice discrete supercell. 

[mappy]

hail spike on radar. wouldn't be surprised to see some big hail reports out of it. 

[nw baltimore wx]

The small line forming over me is putting down a decent downpour.  Just some low rumbling thunder, but should only get better for areas northeast of me.

[mappy]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

The small line forming over me is putting down a decent downpour.  Just some low rumbling thunder, but should only get better for areas northeast of me.

lol had no idea what you ere talking about, then looked in MD. 

I'm enjoying the sun while between both the cells

[yoda]

LWX AFD about evening and tonight 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A stationary boundary stretches across northern PA this
afternoon with numerous showers and thunderstorms across the
state. To our west, showers and thunderstorms moving across WV,
with some of this activity starting to make its way across the
Alleghenies. The 18z IAD upper air balloon continues to sample a
decent inversion ~700mb, with low level flow turning a bit more
southwesterly compared to the 12z sounding. That being said,
there is quite a bit of dry air residing around 925mb and
around/above 700mb. The westerly component aloft and the dry air
has acted to inhibit coverage of showers and thunderstorms to
this point, but we are starting to see development across the
CWA as shortwave energy nears overhead.

Plenty of moisture resides at the surface with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s and PWATs nearing 1.50" per the 18z sounding.
There is ample SBCAPE in the 2-3k J/kg range and 0-6km shear
35-40kts. The potential for the strongest storms still resides
north of the I-66/US-50 corridor, which is where the Enhanced
Risk is placed by the Storm Prediction Center. The primary
threats continue to be damaging winds and large hail, while an
isolated tornado will remain possible. Coverage will wane this
evening with the loss of daytime heating, flow aloft becomes
more westerly, and the shortwave axis tracks to our east. Dry
and mild overnight with temperatures well above normal for late
May, holding in the upper 60s to low 70s.

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, mappy said:

lol had no idea what you ere talking about, then looked in MD. 

I'm enjoying the sun while between both the cells

It cooled down temperatures too.  May only be a brief respite but better than nothing.  Hopefully it holds together to give your yard a nice drenching.

[batmanbrad]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

hail spike on radar. wouldn't be surprised to see some big hail reports out of it. 

yes can see some purple on the COD radar from that cell, quite impressive for that area - looks like it will stay south of the NYC area if it stays on its East heading...

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

It cooled down temperatures too.  May only be a brief respite but better than nothing.  Hopefully it holds together to give your yard a nice drenching.

It will probably do it, when I am not home. Heading out with some coworkers for dinner/drinks

edit to add: @nw baltimore wx if you're in the area, I'll be down at The Stil off York

[yoda]

Small STW box for RNK CWA counties until 8pm

[adelphi_sky]

DC Split approaching. Just kidding.   But those showers headed for Culpeper look ominous. Meanwhile, winner NYC? 

I find it odd that even ordinary rain showers are disappearing as they near the DC area. What could be keeping the showers from growing into storms? 

[yoda]

Yay a warning from LWX lol

[Kmlwx]

I'm starting to hope for the weenie stuff - outflow triggering stuff for us, cold pool establishing etc  

[yoda]

I want to say that the 2000 SPC OTLK moved the SLGT risk south like 100 miles into S VA

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I want to say that the 2000 SPC OTLK moved the SLGT risk south like 100 miles into S VA

It's to account for the complex in WV it seems. 

[Kmlwx]

I'm starting to lean towards the bust side of things. 

[yoda]

9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It's to account for the complex in WV it seems. 

Maybe it will pivot and turn more NE

[Scraff]

33 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

DC Split approaching. Just kidding.   But those showers headed for Culpeper look ominous. Meanwhile, winner NYC? 

I find it odd that even ordinary rain showers are disappearing as they near the DC area. What could be keeping the showers from growing into storms? 

All the negativity boundaries left over from this past winter. 

[osfan24]

This is looking like a bust. Activity is way too far north. 

[JakkelWx]

This enhanced risk is garbage so far.

[osfan24]

Severe busts, I just shrug my shoulders. Snow busts, I'm ready to throw the computer off the deck.

[biodhokie]

Just now, osfan24 said:

Severe busts, I just shrug my shoulders. Snow busts, I'm ready to throw the computer off the deck.

Probably since its only a day or twos worth of blue balls instead of a 5 days of tracking to get blue-balled.