2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, yoda said:

Where's the quickest to see the 18z RAOB?  SPC sounding page?

Yea, it probably won't be available until 2:30 at the earliest.

[Tater Tot]

lmao at all the people in here! 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Tater Tot said:

lmao at all the people in here! 

should we be somewhere else? 

[Eskimo Joe]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0884.html

[nj2va]

We'll soon be surrounded by watches...another MD just posted for SW VA/Southern WV/N KY.  And another MD for the western half of the LWX area.

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0884.html

Not a particularly robust meso discussion. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Not a particularly robust meso discussion. 

Yea.  All of a sudden the CU field went poof at work too.  Wonder if there's some subsidence or something.

[Tater Tot]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

should we be somewhere else? 

I love how active it is just for an ENH risk day. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

1 minute ago, Tater Tot said:

I love how active it is just for an ENH risk day. 

well, you are on a weather forum and we don't get many ENH days per year so seems pretty normal to me lol

[yoda]

The 17z PIT sounding upstream looked fine to me... waiting for the 18z KIAD one

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, Tater Tot said:

I love how active it is just for an ENH risk day. 

are you new here? we get 50 page threads for flurries in the winter. why would severe weather be any different? 

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

are you new here? we get 50 page threads for flurries in the winter. why would severe weather be any different? 

The only difference is we tend to not crash the forum during severe season

[Tater Tot]

Just now, mappy said:

are you new here? we get 50 page threads for flurries in the winter. why would severe weather be any different? 

I know, I think I'm just noticing the contrast between this thread and the midwest/ohio valley threads where they've been having tornado outbreaks with about 20 people in the thread lol.

[mappy]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

The only difference is we tend to not crash the forum during severe season

shhhh dont jinx it

[mappy]

Just now, Tater Tot said:

I know, I think I'm just noticing the contrast between this thread and the midwest/ohio valley threads where they've been having tornado outbreaks with about 20 people in the thread lol.

the severe threads forum-wide has sucked in the last few years. 2011-2012 was the height of when central and midwest forums were the go to for severe chat. its pretty crappy now. i stay here. 

[fourseasons]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The only difference is we tend to not crash the forum during severe season

Plus there haven't been any "bust" calls yet.

[AmericanWxFreak]

3 minutes ago, fourseasons said:

Plus there haven't been any "bust" calls yet.

no direct calls but I can feel it coming based on our lack of MDs and/or watches lol

[fourseasons]

Just now, AmericanWxFreak said:

no direct calls but I can feel it coming based on our lack of MDs and/or watches lol

You're not doing this properly!  You should be calling bust based on the radar!

[Kmlwx]

The other nice thing is the severe weenies tend to not have a meltdown when storms don't work out. We move on after complaining a little bit. 

Not speaking for everyone - but there's a lot more of a "what happens happens" mentality with severe. 

[Kmlwx]

Thus far the models with the intense activity remaining in PA have been correct. Still early, though. 

That DC split is looking MIGHTY so far

[smokeybandit]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The other nice thing is the severe weenies tend to not have a meltdown when storms don't work out. We move on after complaining a little bit. 

Not speaking for everyone - but there's a lot more of a "what happens happens" mentality with severe. 

Maybe because the aftermath of winter storms is often fun and pretty.

 

The aftermath of severe can be traumatizing

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The other nice thing is the severe weenies tend to not have a meltdown when storms don't work out. We move on after complaining a little bit. 

Not speaking for everyone - but there's a lot more of a "what happens happens" mentality with severe. 

speak for yourself  

[yoda]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Thus far the models with the intense activity remaining in PA have been correct. Still early, though. 

That DC split is looking MIGHTY so far

Weren't the models more suggesting evening time for us potentially?  Like 6 to 10pm?

[JakkelWx]

11 minutes ago, fourseasons said:

Plus there haven't been any "bust" calls yet.

BUST

[MN Transplant]

18 minutes ago, yoda said:

The 17z PIT sounding upstream looked fine to me... waiting for the 18z KIAD one

Wyoming has it.

 

[Kmlwx]

Just now, yoda said:

Weren't the models more suggesting evening time for us potentially?  Like 6 to 10pm?

Most recent HRRR runs are pretty pitiful for some of us. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Just now, smokeybandit said:

Maybe because the aftermath of winter storms is often fun and pretty.

 

The aftermath of severe can be traumatizing

Also because we typically do not spend more than a day or two dumping our emotions into watching a potential evolve. With winter, it can be almost 2 weeks of waiting and watching lol

[Kmlwx]

Just now, AmericanWxFreak said:

Also because we typically do not spend more than a day or two dumping our emotions into watching a potential evolve. With winter, it can be almost 2 weeks of waiting and watching lol

This is a big factor for sure. Extended tracking always makes busts more painful. Imagine having a D8 severe outlook go poof once it hits day 1

[nj2va]

No storms = pool time this evening at least.

[Tater Tot]

It's much easier to maintain low expectations about severe around here. I try to steer clear of the place around winter because it's harder not to get your hopes up (plus it's not as fun without DT's rants).