mappy Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:26 PM, high risk said: We're almost certain to get a blue box later. I agree that the TOR threat is limited even in PA, but while the low level winds are meh, the overall shear is decent. So I see SPC's thought that any modification of the low-level winds by the front or storm interactions could lead to a TOR. Expand SPC making me look dumb lol thanks for your input, as always! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 I’m driving from philly to Pittsburgh now after having driven up to philly this AM for a meeting - should see some storms maybe on my way across PA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:23 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Would tend to agree with you. The SFC - 3km heliticty values are far more impressive north of Mason-Dixon down into the upper Delaware Bay region. Expand it's also key that we're way hotter, and the LCL heights are much higher. That deeply mixed, relatively dry PBL would cause any supercells this far south to gust out quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:28 PM, Eskimo Joe said: RIP, IAD to Mappy tomorrow on the 12z NAMNEST at HR 34 -> 36 Expand Yeah - the soundings are absurd for areas within that pocket. Contaminated for sure in areas (I found a sounding with 50.1 supercell composite param). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:28 PM, North Balti Zen said: I’m driving from philly to Pittsburgh now after having driven up to philly this AM for a meeting - should see some storms maybe on my way across PA... Expand take pics, safely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:29 PM, Kmlwx said: Yeah - the soundings are absurd for areas within that pocket. Contaminated for sure in areas (I found a sounding with 50.1 supercell composite param). Expand can you post a sounding? haven't looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:28 PM, Eskimo Joe said: RIP, IAD to Mappy tomorrow on the 12z NAMNEST at HR 34 -> 36 Expand Pretty impressive looking sim radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Would be pretty "classic-DC" if we manage to whiff on all three days around DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Trifecta for the big three hitting 90°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:30 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Trifecta for the big three hitting 90°. Expand The one thing that DC does well: hot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:29 PM, mappy said: can you post a sounding? haven't looked. Expand Just south of FDK tomorrow - contaminated obviously 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 thanks. now someone explain it me. i still have yet to learn how to read a severe sounding. shhh don't tell anyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:29 PM, mappy said: take pics, safely! Expand Will try - but man the PA turnpike is not a friendly stretch of highway - lanes are so tight etc. my hope would be seeing something about the place there is a rest area (I am stopped at one now). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Lol 1730 SPC disco sounds good for tomorrow... then you look at where the slight risk is and then you have to laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:32 PM, mappy said: thanks. now someone explain it me. i still have yet to learn how to read a severe sounding. shhh don't tell anyone. Expand The way I've seen it explained - the bars (horizontal) coming from the left side of the sounding indicate that the sounding is heavily contaminated (I guess from lift/precip???) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:34 PM, yoda said: Lol 1730 SPC disco sounds good... then you look at where the slight risk is and then you have to laugh Expand Yoda, take solace in knowing that we fail 9.99/10 times and on our biggest day, Derecho 2012, SPC didn't even have us in a SLGT until a few hours before the event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:36 PM, Kmlwx said: The way I've seen it explained - the bars (horizontal) coming from the left side of the sounding indicate that the sounding is heavily contaminated (I guess from lift/precip???) Expand no clue. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:36 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Yoda, take solace in knowing that we fail 9.99/10 times and on our biggest day, Derecho 2012, SPC didn't even have us in a SLGT until a few hours before the event. Expand Oh I know... just it's a lil laughable that the same places have been SLGT or ENH for 3 days in a row now. We dont see that very often in our parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:36 PM, Kmlwx said: The way I've seen it explained - the bars (horizontal) coming from the left side of the sounding indicate that the sounding is heavily contaminated (I guess from lift/precip???) Expand Correct. Source: https://www.facebook.com/SHARPpy.wx/posts/tutorial-how-to-tell-if-your-sounding-is-convectively-contaminatedwith-spring-co/1592950307629254/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:39 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Correct. Source: https://www.facebook.com/SHARPpy.wx/posts/tutorial-how-to-tell-if-your-sounding-is-convectively-contaminatedwith-spring-co/1592950307629254/ Expand Wooo - some of what I read is sticking (finally). I've come so far since 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:36 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Yoda, take solace in knowing that we fail 9.99/10 times and on our biggest day, Derecho 2012, SPC didn't even have us in a SLGT until a few hours before the event. Expand Ah - the good old "SEE TEXT" - that was an amazing example of how tough to predict severe can be. Some of our most memorable events I feel like are underforecast by SPC from leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:44 PM, Kmlwx said: Ah - the good old "SEE TEXT" - that was an amazing example of how tough to predict severe can be. Some of our most memorable events I feel like are underforecast by SPC from leads. Expand We always win when LWX / SPC are playing catch up, whether it's winter or summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:36 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Yoda, take solace in knowing that we fail 9.99/10 times and on our biggest day, Derecho 2012, SPC didn't even have us in a SLGT until a few hours before the event. Expand you can't compare the derecho to this set up. that was a whole other beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:45 PM, mappy said: you can't compare the derecho to this set up. that was a whole other beast Expand I know that, I was referring to the convective outlook placement prior to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:46 PM, Eskimo Joe said: I know that, I was referring to the convective outlook placement prior to the event. Expand but even then the set up was different. models have been advertising possible storms for us all week. there wasn't much there for the derecho until the day of, hence the upgrades as the day went on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:32 PM, North Balti Zen said: Will try - but man the PA turnpike is not a friendly stretch of highway - lanes are so tight etc. my hope would be seeing something about the place there is a rest area (I am stopped at one now). Expand You get out west of the Susquehanna and there's a stretch that the pike is 3 lanes in each direction...also, once in the Cumberland Valley you'll have some open spaces where you'll be able to see for miles... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Cell going up near Hancock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Where's our MD? Should be interesting to see what the 18z SPEC sounding from KIAD shows in about 20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:56 PM, yoda said: Where's our MD? Should be interesting to see what the 18z SPEC sounding from KIAD shows in about 20 minutes Expand Wonder if they're waiting on the 18z RAOB before making a call on a watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 On 5/29/2019 at 5:57 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Wonder if they're waiting on the 18z RAOB before making a call on a watch? Expand Where's the quickest to see the 18z RAOB? SPC sounding page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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